Crooked Bough News Round-up

— How China is expanding its anti-satellite arsenal

 

at 4/3/25 1:59pm

China is rapidly building out its arsenal of counterspace weapons: everything from ground-based lasers to satellites that can grab other satellites, all of which pose a “grave threat” to the U.S., according to Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman.  The People’s Liberation Army is developing missiles and ground-based lasers to hit satellites from the ground—systems that could be deployed before the end of the decade, Saltzman said in written testimony ahead of his appearance before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on Thursday. The chief’s testimony painted one of his most detailed and concerning assessments of China’s growing space threat. “Aside from missiles, the PLA has fielded multiple ground-based laser weapons able to disrupt, degrade, or damage satellite sensors. By the mid-to-late 2020s, we expect them to deploy systems high enough in power that they can physically damage satellite structures,” he said.  Further, China’s military routinely employs jammers that can target space-based communications, radars, and navigation systems, including the Pentagon’s extremely-high-frequency (EHF) systems. Saltzman also mentioned China’s kinetic counterspace operations—including satellites that can “dogfight” or physically pull other satellites out of orbit. [[Related Posts]] One of China’s most aggressive initiatives is building a “kill web” that uses hundreds of satellites to find, track, and target forces on Earth, Saltzman told the commission on Thursday. That means it’s no longer sufficient to only focus on protecting U.S. satellites, he said. The U.S. needs to develop systems that can deny China’s use of its space assets, he said, which is central to the service’s new mission of “space superiority.” “Thats a new mission set and really rounds out what we say it means to have space superiority, to use space control: protect ours, but also deny theirs, and thats what were trying to invest more in,” Saltzman said.  But the Space Force doesn’t have enough money to do it. Saltzman said his service is “critically unfunded.”  “I will tell you that I believe we have more left unfunded than we have funded. I think the new missions that have been given to the Space Force, we still haven’t developed the size and set of capabilities necessary to perform those new missions,” he said.  Saltzman said counterspace weapons come in six categories: ground-based jammers, kinetic weapons, and directed energy weapons, and space-based versions of all three. He said China is investing in all six, while the U.S. is not. For now, the service is concentrating on ground-based counterspace weapons, he said, which require less new technology than orbiting weapons. But the service will need to field weapons in all six areas, he said, arguing that targets in different orbits will require different kinds of weapons.  Saltzman also said the service is prioritizing jamming and other non-kinetic effects first—and would only resort to physically destroying another satellite if there was no other option.  “Destroying something on orbit, as weve seen with the Chinese in 2007 and the Russians in 2021, the debris thats generated by a destructive force on orbit can be catastrophic for all of the users of the space domain. And so I feel the last resort—and something that we dont want to create—this long-lasting, hazardous debris field that can start to make the domain far less sustainable,” he said. ]]

[Category: Threats]

— Navy expands use of AI for target spotting, tracking

 

at 4/3/25 1:27pm

Next year, two U.S. warships are slated to get a prototype AI-powered system designed to filter their sensor data for potential targets—and then predict their behavior, according to the system’s manufacturer. “The sensors that the Navy operates are so sophisticated and sensitive [they] can pick up very small things, but they need to be able to tell, ‘Is that a small thing that we should care about or is that a small thing that is just irrelevant’?” said Ben FitzGerald, CEO for Rebellion Defense. Last year, the Navy’s Program Executive Office for Integrated Warfare Systems X—the outfit responsible for upgrading combat platforms—awarded Rebellion Defense a contract to continue developing its Iris target-processing software. Awarded via other transaction authority, the contract covered two prototype phases and a production phase.  Now, the Navy is extending Rebellion’s contract for an undisclosed amount and another 14 months, aiming to put Iris on two ships and ensure that it “works in a way that the Navy is comfortable with on Navy platforms and systems,” FitzGerald said. “Well be doing integration work through the IWS software pipeline, and then well be able to do testing on ships in 2026.”  A Navy official said the service is pursuing testing plans. [[Related Posts]] The company is soliciting input from sailors as it tailors Iris to work with the Aegis Combat System and Ship Self-Defense System, he said. Iris sits on top of existing infrastructure and helps sailors spot, track, predict, and assign weapons to targets. For example, the software can help determine whether a flying object is more likely an airliner or an armed enemy drone.  “If there is something that is smaller than [a passenger jet] and moving very, very slowly, but says that its a commercial airliner, you should be watching out for that,” FitzGerald said.  The same thing applies to ships.  “We want to identify, for humans, any ship that is traveling at 95% or greater of its top speed. And then you can start getting into things like,’Well, it says that its an oil tanker, but its going faster than any oil tanker has ever been known to travel. Humans should be looking at that,” he said. “Because…people are so focused on looking at all sorts of other things that they dont see the anomalous thing.” The move is part of a larger Navy effort to upgrade its software and improve maritime operations with access to data analytics.  Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow specializing in naval warfare with the Heritage Foundation, said predictive AI and big-data techniques can help trawl through a lot of targets, like a group of commercial fishing vessels, trying to pick up which ones might be bad actors.  “So rather than the 200 that are out there that you have to worry about, you can then focus on these. This is what theyre trying to get at in peacetime…to better assign limited platforms and sensors using AI and big data analytics,” Sadler said.  Things become more complicated and crucial in combat.  “In wartime, it becomes a lot more about target queuing, and that is: Do I have the right target? Wheres the target most likely to head? And then launch an attack on them in a way that they cant detect until its too late?” he said. “Its a little bit more urgent and time-critical for putting a weapon on a target to try to anticipate how it moves and where it might be going, but also to make sure you have the right one." ]]

[Category: Science & Tech]

— A shipbuilder leans into lasers and emerging tech

 

at 4/3/25 12:58pm

The nation’s largest shipbuilder is eyeing steady growth in its emerging technologies business this year, keeping up with the Defense Department’s appetite for counter-UAS and data solutions.  “Were in all the right areas that are achieving growth and budget and so we’re able to capture that,” HII CEO Christopher Kastner told reporters on Wednesday. “Weve got guidance of about 5 percent growth.”     Last year, the company’s Mission Technologies business grew nearly 9 percent, landing about $12 billion in contract awards once the work is completed, according to their fourth-quarter earnings report for 2024. The business saw a slight dip in fourth-quarter revenue—4 percent or $32 million—compared to 2023 due to fewer C5ISR contracts. But total revenue for 2024 hit $2.9 billion, an 8.8 percent increase over the previous year thanks to more cyber, electronic warfare, and C5ISR contracts.  Kastner said he was “bullish” on that side of the business, touting uncrewed vehicles as an area of potential growth. For 2025, HII expects revenue to remain steady around $3 billion.  Last month, the Army awarded HII a prime contract to develop a high-energy laser that can be used to shoot down uncrewed aerial systems. Kastner said the technology could have other uses across the military.  “Were the prime contractor for that development of that high-energy laser that we believe…if it’s successful we could use that for other services, potentially the Navy,” Kastner said. “Were not often thought of as a laser company, but thats part of the technology that we acquired when Alion came on board.”  [[Related Posts]] The Newport News-based shipbuilder has been rebranding and broadening its scope in recent years with its Mission Technologies division to include more emerging technologies, such as cyber, electronic warfare, uncrewed systems, nuclear technologies, and data and analytics offerings. And it seems to be paying off. Mission Technologies has delivered 700 underwater uncrewed vehicles, including delivering production units for the small UUV earlier this year.  “Theyve really started to establish a rhythm in our uncrewed organization, and we have high hopes for them this year," Kastner said. “We really have the only production vehicle in place. Its a very stable, long-term contract for just starting our production run. So we have a very good demand signal right now. Im also very proud of the medium sized UUV that we have in place, where it was the first underwater launch and recovery from the Virginia-class submarine.” Kastner also floated the idea of contributing to the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile-defense project on the data side of things.  “We understand data will be important, and we have some really interesting platforms that we now utilize for other customers that are very flexible, that can be utilized. So were paying attention to it, but were not working on anything directly for it,” he said. “We are being very thoughtful in how we invest our money, our IRAD dollars, in Mission Technologies, to ensure that this high-energy laser project is successful and invest in commercial variants like the [IONIC] Big Data platform, which is a data fabric utilizing AI that can be used for JADC2. And if that plays into a Golden Dome concept relative to sharing data and managing data, thats something we can participate in.”  Impacts of tariffs, federal layoffs The White House imposed widespread tariffs on imports Wednesday and previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the shipbuilder isn’t concerned about the effect of tariffs, except its potential impact on the workforce.  “So were obviously a little different. We buy and build in America,” Kastner said. “Ultimately, if tariffs bring more manufacturing in the United States and creates more jobs for manufacturing workers in the United States, Im happy, because we need to broaden that base.” The company said HII doesn’t buy foreign steel, except from Australia, which was purchased for training at the Newport News Shipbuilding Apprentice School. The steel used in shipyards comes from Indiana, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. But he is less optimistic about the potential effects of the Trump administration’s efforts to shrink the federal workforce. “We havent seen the impact yet, quite honestly. Were concerned about it because of the volume of contract actions that we have over the next couple of years. Theres a talented group of contracts and program professionals at NAVSEA that if they were impacted and slowed everything down, it would be a challenge. But we just havent seen it yet,” Kastner said.  The loss of Navy technical talent in executing shipbuilding contracts would be particularly challenging for nuclear programs, Kastner said.  “For the technical people within SUPSHIP, that would [have] an impact as well. We think about quality. Think about the authorities that are resident in a nuclear shipyard. We need to make sure that we continue to keep the nuclear team in place, because its very hard to find people that are that talented in the nuclear side of the business. You just dont go find someone off the street that understands how to manage a nuclear program,” he said. ]]

[Category: Business]

— The D Brief: More WH Signal chats; Trump’s tariffs skip Russia; NSC departures?; Simulating budget choices; And a bit more.

 

at 4/3/25 9:11am

White House’s Signal use widens National security adviser Mike Waltz set up at least 20 Signal group chats to discuss global hot spots, people on them have told Politico. “Two of the people said they were in or have direct knowledge of at least 20 such chats. All four said they saw instances of sensitive information being discussed.” As with the infamous Yemen chat, White House officials said the chats were not used to share classified information and that the Signal app can be used for government business if the messages are retained per federal records laws. They did not say how this squared with warnings that Signal messages on a personal phone are vulnerable to foreign interception or with Waltz’s setting the messages to disappear. Read on, here. House oversight committee Democrats demand documents, investigations.  (Press release, Axios) Bipartisan natsec advocacy group: “The new revelations reported by Politico—that the National Security Advisor’s staff created and maintained at least 20 Signal group chats for managing sensitive international crises—raise the concerning possibility that our nation’s adversaries may have had line of sight into critical strategies, tactics, and objectives.” Here’s the press release from National Security Leaders for America. Breaking: “Several members of President Trumps embattled National Security Council have been fired,” Axios reported Thursday morning, citing two sources familiar with the decision. It’s not yet clear if any of those let go were linked to the Signalgate or related operational security scandals of the Trump administration’s first 60 days.  “The firings come a day after conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer visited the Oval Office and pressed President Trump to fire members of the NSC,” Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler of Axios write. More, here.  Around the Defense Department: “US sends F-35s to Middle East as strikes on Houthis continue,” Defense News reported Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported those and related developments on Tuesday;  “Naval Academy Staff Removed Display on Female Jewish Graduates for Hegseth Visit,” Military-dot-com reported Wednesday;  And in commentary, “The Pentagon’s Endangered Brain Trust: Don’t gut the office that outfoxed the Soviets and predicted China’s rise,” former Army Col. Andrew Krepinevich, Jr., argues regarding the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment, writing Wednesday in Foreign Affairs.  Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Bradley Peniston and Ben Watson. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1865, the U.S. military captured the capital of the Confederacy in Richmond, Virginia. The war would end 53 days later.  Trump’s tariffs U.S. and global markets plummeted Thursday after President Trump announced his long-teased tariff war on the world, including more than 60 countries around the globe.  Latest: “Futures on the S&P 500 slumped over 3 percent, as benchmark indexes dropped more than 3 percent in Japan and nearly 2 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea,” the New York Times reports. “The Stoxx Europe 600 was down more than 2 percent and Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, dropped by 3 percent.” The conservative Wall Street Journal framed developments a little differently, writing, “The Dow industrials dropped 1500 points, a shocking number though one that reflects just a moderate decline of 3.5%.” Meanwhile, “Fears that the disruption caused by the tariffs will outweigh the benefits to U.S. manufacturers, led the dollar to decline the most against other major currencies in months,” the Journal’s Caitlin McCabe wrote separately.  AP’s headline: “Dow drops 1,200 [now 1,500] as US stock market leads a worldwide sell-off following Trump’s tariff shock.” The White House’s message: “To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.  One view from across the pond: “Donald Trump has committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era,” the UK’s Economist writes Thursday morning.  “Almost everything he said—on history, economics and the technicalities of trade—was utterly deluded,” the publication’s editors said, echoing analysis from writer James Surowiecki and later confirmed by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.  By the way: Trump spared Russia from his tariff war. Why? “I think it’s a political decision,” Alexandra Prokopenko, former official at the Russian central bank, said according to the New York Times. “Trump does not want to escalate while his talks with Putin are ongoing,” she speculated. Indeed, Trump’s team lifted sanctions against Russia’s negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, so he could visit with White House officials in Washington today.  Autocratic tactics? Trump’s “tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said Wednesday evening. Considering the economic pain of these tariffs, “Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.” “Our founders created a President with limited and checked powers,” said Murphy. “They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature. Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects.” “Trump didn’t invent this strategy,” the senator explained. “It’s the playbook for democratically elected leaders who want to stay in power forever.” Murphy goes into greater detail, here.  A second opinion: “This is Trump saying…I am going to overturn globalization as we’ve known it,” CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar said Wednesday, and warned, “I’m hoping it doesn’t push the U.S. and the world into recession.” Europe Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Europe for talks with NATO allies in Belgium. “The United States is as active in NATO as it has ever been,” Rubio told alliance members Thursday, Reuters reported from Brussels.  His main message: Spend more on defense. “We do want to leave here with an understanding that we are on a pathway, a realistic pathway, to every single one of the members committing and fulfilling a promise to reach up to 5% of spending,” Rubio said. “No one expects that youre going to be able to do this in one year or two. But the pathway has to be real,” he added.  Greenland chat in the works? “Rubio is due to sit down with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen on the meeting’s sidelines in the first direct U.S.-Danish contact in weeks, although a Danish foreign ministry spokesperson said Greenland would not be on the agenda,” Politico reported Wednesday.  Related reading:  “Denmarks naval modernization plan reflects threats from Russia, US,” analyst Tom Freebairn of Military Periscope wrote in Defense One Wednesday; See also, “Winning the Industrial War: Comparing Russia, Europe and Ukraine, 2022–24,” published Thursday by Jack Watling and Oleksandr Danylyuk of the UK’s Royal United Services Institute.  Developing: Pentagon chief Hegseth will skip the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, which would be “the first time the group will meet without a U.S. defense secretary attending,” Defense News reported Wednesday. The next such meeting of Ukraine’s allies is slated for next Friday, and it will be jointly chaired by the UK and Germany.  “Hegseth won’t join in person and isn’t expected to join virtually either,” and “the Pentagon is unlikely to send any senior representatives,” a defense official said. “For Europeans, the secretary’s absence is the latest sign of the Trump administration’s lower-priority approach to arming Ukraine—a point Hegseth made clear at the last meeting in February,” Defense News writes. More, here.  This morning on Capitol Hill, the U.S. military’s posture in Europe and Africa are under the microscope at the Senate Armed Services Committee. Army Gen. Chris Cavoli, chief of U.S. European Command and NATOs Supreme Allied Commander, and Marine Gen. Michael Langley of U.S. Africa Command are testifying together in a hearing that began at 9:30 a.m. ET. Livestream here.  Reminder: “President Trump may soon remake the entire U.S. combatant command structure, including dismantling AFRICOM and merging it under EUCOM,” Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island, said in his opening remarks.  “This would be a deeply mistaken and harmful decision,” he said, and asked the officers to “please provide your assessment of the harm to U.S. vital interests if we reduce our engagement in Europe and Africa and the opportunity that would provide for competitors like Russia and China.” Lastly in commentary: “We tried ‘fighting China’ with lower budgets. It didn’t go well,” write three analysts for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “By month’s end, Congressional leaders expect the Trump administration to release a “skinny budget” containing topline spending amounts for the Defense Department. Though specifics will come later, the choices that shape this fiscal 2026 skinny budget will set policy direction for the next four years. “Tabletop exercises hosted by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments offer one big lesson for the fiscal 2026 spending plan.” Read that, here. ]]

[Category: Threats]

— Denmark's naval modernization plan reflects threats from Russia, US

 

at 4/2/25 6:19pm

Denmarks Defense Ministry made waves with its March 30 announcement of an ambitious naval plan that aims to buy at least 26 new vessels and lays out short- and long-term roadmaps for the Royal Danish Navys and the Naval Home Guards procurement, capabilities, and strategic goals. In the short term, Copenhagen plans to secure the Danish home waters, buying 21 vessels to replace the Naval Home Guard’s aging small craft, used primarily for coastal patrol, harbor security and surveillance. Scores of smaller, more capable boats will likely replace the MHV 800 class of 83-ton patrol vessels. As part of its local security push, the Danish government will prioritize securing undersea infrastructure, including vital telecommunications lines, electrical cables, and gas pipelines. This threat of undersea sabotage was felt keenly last year when the Danish navy intercepted a Chinese vessel suspected of severing Baltic underwater telecom cables. So the navy will seek to acquire a first-of-its-kind vessel dedicated to underwater infrastructure surveillance and security. It will be fitted with a formidable arsenal of defensive tools, including advanced sensors and uncrewed undersea vehicles, to combat an emerging grey-zone warfare tactic that threatens critical infrastructure. Four multi-purpose ships will be acquired to fill a curious set of roles. To make the most of Danish Defenses limited funds, the ships will be primarily used to contain chemical and oil spills but will also be used for patrol, surveillance, training, and minelaying. The decision comes as Denmark announced plans to buy hundreds of sea mines to improve area access and denial in its territorial waters. Given the shallow waters of the Baltic and Denmark’s strategic position at the entrance to the North Sea, mines and minelaying platforms are useful for countering growing Russian undersea threats in the region. The plan sheds no new light on Denmarks next major surface combatant, but does announce plans to begin seeking a successor to the Navys current largest warships: the three Iver Huitfeldt-class air-defense frigates. Active since 2011, they have another decade before their planned retirement. The Navy may seek to have them entirely or partially built in Denmark. After that, the navy may begin seeking successors to its two 20-year-old Absalon-class frigates. The document also floated the idea of buying a second batch of Arctic patrol ships. The first batch, which are slated to arrive in 2029, was initially conceived as a class of up to six flexible patrol ships. Then in January, Denmark announced that the vessels would be re-oriented into Arctic patrol ships. Design of these ships is being undertaken by Danske Patruljeskibe K/S, a Danish consortium of Terma, Odense Maritime Technology, and PensionDenmark. The decision to adapt the design, as well as the possible procurement of a second batch, reflects Danish leaders growing concern about Russian activity in the High North and apprehension about U.S. President Donald Trump’s refusal to rule out force in acquiring Greenland, the Danish self-governing island territory. Copenhagen is also considering buying icebreakers with other nations. Such a concept would likely take the form of a shared Nordic reinforced icebreaker design, which could be used to clear paths for commercial vessels or reach remote outposts and settlements across the Polar region, particularly as climate change opens new routes. While less of an immediate need, this plank of the overhaul plan is a nod to Moscows 41 icebreakers, seven of which are nuclear-powered, constituting not only the world’s largest such fleet but one almost on par with the entirety of the NATO alliance.  ]]

[Category: Threats]

— We tried ‘fighting China’ with lower budgets. It didn’t go well.

 

at 4/2/25 5:30pm

By month’s end, Congressional leaders expect the Trump administration to release a “skinny budget” containing topline spending amounts for the Defense Department. Though specifics will come later, the choices that shape this fiscal 2026 skinny budget will set policy direction for the next four years. This first budget submission will surely reflect the administration’s interim strategic guidance, which reportedly downgrades Europe relative to Asia. It will also showcase the administration’s ongoing push to shrink the Defense Department civilian workforce. Most importantly, it will reflect the results of the 8-percent spending shift directed by Secretary Hegseth. In February, he tasked defense organizations to prepare lists of lower-priority activities totaling 8 percent of their 2026–2030 projected budgets—some $365 billion over five years that may be reallocated elsewhere. He also identified 17 high-priority areas that were to be protected from funding reductions. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments got some early insight into the hard choices involved with the skinny budget and spending relook. Back in January, we conducted an exercise to assess how to adjust defense spending to meet the China challenge. Participants joined from across the U.S. government, defense industry, and think tank community. They wrestled with what to fund based on different strategies for stopping a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and different trajectories for defense budgets. Our exercise results, which mirror results from the more than 75 budget exercises that we have conducted since 2011, carry one big lesson about the size of the Defense Department’s budget, which remains the ultimate arbiter of whether the Pentagon can meet all its obligations with acceptable levels of risk. [[Related Posts]] The lesson is that a real topline increase of just 2 percent could fund a real increase in the Pentagon’s ability to deter or fight China. The extra money would enable larger allocations to key efforts—long-range strike aircraft, submarines, munitions, and military infrastructure, and more—while minimizing, although not avoiding, cuts to less critical areas such as older weapons, ground forces, and civilian personnel. The coin, of course, has a flip side. With flat or lower budgets, there is no consequence-free way to increase funding for the top-priority investments identified by our exercise (and by Secretary Hegseth). Savings from scuttling diversity activities, shelving climate-change efforts, and raising efficiency amount to pennies on the dollar. Eliminating excess facilities would take time and would face inevitable resistance from Congress. So the discussion would turn to riskier tradeoffs, like near-term vs. future readiness. For years, many strategists believed that the United States ought to emphasize investments in cutting-edge capabilities while reducing the size of current forces, if necessary, to finance investments in qualitative military superiority. These strategists reasoned that the United States likely had time before it might face off militarily with China, so it could stand to take risk now to reduce risk later. These arguments were compelling when made years ago. Today, however, the United States has run out of time. The odds of facing a serious military challenge from China in the next five years are high enough that one cannot be cavalier about cutting any part of the current force that might contribute to U.S. victory in that confrontation. The strategy of mortgaging present preparedness for future preparedness had its heyday, but that heyday is over. A second risky tradeoff involves balancing the efforts to modernize our nuclear and conventional forces. After years of deferring the recapitalization of America’s strategic deterrent, the bill is coming due. That bill might not be nearly as large as critics suggest when put into the proper context of a three-decade timeline. But with flat or declining budgets, something will need to give to support the military services’ conventional modernization plans. The result could be risks that many American strategists would consider intolerable. Although changes in the security environment are often overstated, the United States is on the verge of facing a truly unique and extremely worrisome development: the existence of two peer competitors in the nuclear domain. Russia, long Washington’s chief nuclear rival and the benchmark for its nuclear posture and plans, remains an atomic heavyweight. Not only has Moscow been replacing its large inventory of Soviet-era strategic and non-strategic nuclear systems, but it has also been experimenting with novel weapons and delivery platforms. China, long content with maintaining a minimal deterrent, is rapidly moving into the same weight-class. Not only is Beijing on pace to amass an arsenal of 1,000 nuclear weapons or more by 2030, but it also is modernizing its delivery systems across the board and appears likely to field many non-strategic nuclear options as well. These developments put a premium on U.S. nuclear modernization efforts across all three legs of the strategic nuclear triad. Ultimately, the Trump administration has a window of opportunity for change, but that window may not remain open for long. Concerns about a U.S.-China military confrontation are growing steadily, while any administration’s ability to recast defense spending tends to diminish later in its tenure. The budget-related choices being made this month therefore could end up being among the most consequential defense decisions of President Trump’s second term. Even still, absent defense budget growth, even the smartest choices are likely to be insufficient. Evan Braden Montgomery is the director of research and studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Casey Nicastro is an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Travis Sharp is a senior fellow and director of the defense budget studies program at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. ]]

[Category: Ideas]

— The D Brief: WH mulls Greenland options; China’s invasion barges; New OPSEC failure; 4th missing soldier found; And a bit more...

 

at 4/2/25 10:59am

White House mulls Greenland takeover options, the Washington Post reports. One option: offer Greenlanders more than the $600 million annual subsidy provided by NATO ally Denmark. “This is a lot higher than that,” said one official familiar with the plans, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that remain in the works. “The point is, ‘We’ll pay you more than Denmark does.’” President Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. will “get” the island. “100 percent,” he told NBC News, adding that there is a “good possibility that we could do it without military force” but that “I don’t take anything off the table.” “Trump’s demands [have] elicited international outrage and a rebuke from Denmark,” writes the Post, here. EU officials are having biweekly meetings about ways to replace U.S. weapons, “but those increasingly intense discussions have highlighted that it wouldnt be easy, fast, or cheap,” reports Defense One’s Patrick Tucker, citing talks with a European diplomat. Still, that kind of talk has drawn warnings from U.S. officials. Reuters: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials have insisted that U.S. arms-makers must not be excluded as the European Commission debates mid-March proposals to boost military spending and increase joint defense projects in ways that “could mean a smaller role for non-EU companies, including those based in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, experts say.” WH aims to reduce oversight of weapons exports, Reuters reports, with a forthcoming executive order that resembles an unsuccessful bill from last year. That bill—which was backed by then-Rep. Waltz, R-Fla.— “would have amended the U.S. Arms Export Control Act to increase the minimum dollar amounts that trigger a congressional review of arms exports to other countries. They would increase to $23 million from $14 million for arms transfers, and rise to $83 million from $50 million for the sale of military equipment, upgrades, training and other services.” White House aides did not immediately respond to requests for comment.  That, plus background on Trump’s earlier clashes with Congress over export rules, here. Trendspotting: “Trump uses power against foes unlike any other modern US president,” Reuters reported Tuesday.  Related reading: “How NORAD could be hurt by US-Canada tensions”: Gen. Gregory Guillot—who leads NORAD and NORTHCOM—told a House hearing that if Trump’s threats lead Canada to leave the binational command, the Pentagon would be left partially blind to enemy missiles—at least until new defenses could be built. Defense One’s Audrey Decker reports. “Administration, unions trade lawsuits over ‘national security order to reduce feds rights” from GovExec. Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Bradley Peniston, Ben Watson, and Audrey Decker. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1951, Navy F9F Panthers made the first combat bombing runs by jet aircraft. They were largely flown by former members of the Blue Angels demonstration team, which had been disbanded for the Korean War. China New barges could make invading Taiwan easier, the New York Times reports. “The barges, which link up to form a bridge, could give China a way to land large numbers of vehicles and troops on Taiwan, solving a major logistical problem.” See photos of the barges in operation, here. A visit to Huawei campus in Shanghai offers a lens on various U.S. policies, from national security, to education, to tariffs, writes NYT columnist Thomas Friedman. “I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists. The Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus is basically Huawei’s response to the U.S. attempt to choke it to death beginning in 2019 by restricting the export of U.S. technology, including semiconductors, to Huawei amid national security concerns.” More, here.  New WH OPSEC problem Waltz and staff used Gmail for government communications. “Members of President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, including White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, have conducted government business over personal Gmail accounts,” reports the Washington Post, citing documents they reviewed and interviews with three U.S. officials. “The use of Gmail, a far less secure method of communication than the encrypted messaging app Signal, is the latest example of questionable data security practices by top national security officials already under fire for the mistaken inclusion of a journalist in a group chat about high-level planning for military operations in Yemen.” Read on, here. “I greatly look forward to my Republican colleagues joining me in calls for an investigation with the same urgency…and intensity…As they did over ‘her emails,’” said Army veteran and Sen. Tammy Duckworth, writing Tuesday on social media.  Commentary: “I flew combat missions against Houthi rebels. [The] Damage from Gmail, Signal scandals is incalculable,” argued 10-year Navy pilot Erin Edwards, writing Tuesday in the San Francisco Chronicle. By the way: The “US says it killed top Houthi missile expert, but questions linger,” Reuters reported Monday as the Pentagon “has so far declined to confirm the death, and the identity of the Houthi commander in question.”  Around the Defense Department Five takeaways from the Joint Chiefs chairman-nominee’s hearing. Dan Caine, the retired Air National Guard three-star who is Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. military, “appears to have enough support to be approved by the Armed Services Committee and confirmed by the Senate, the New York Times reported after his hearing yesterday, presenting a list of five takeaways, here. The Army is making some mandatory training optional. Task & Purpose: “The Army is cutting hours worth of training that were previously mandatory for soldiers, including the basics of combat medicine and a primer on the laws of war” under a new approach that allows commanders to “choose which training their troops are likely to need.” Read on, here. Commentary: Add special operators to the Joint Simulation Environment. Navy and Air Force officials are already talking about expanding their new flight simulator—so good it gives fighter-jet aviators “a true sense of fear”—to other platforms. Lt. Col. Justin Bañez says they should also invite the ground troops of Air Force Special Warfare to play—and they can do that without building a single new sim or writing a line of code. Read that, here. Banned-book purge: “Naval Academy removes nearly 400 books from library in new DEI purge ordered by Hegseths office,” AP’s Lita Baldor reported Tuesday.  Update: Body of fourth missing U.S. soldier found in Lithuania. That soldier and three others from the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division went missing on March 25 during an exercise near Pabradė. “The first three Soldiers and their M88A2 Hercules armored recovery vehicle were recovered from a peat bog in the early morning of March 31,” said an US Army Europe press release released on Tuesday. Officials said the fourth was found “after a search by hundreds of rescue workers from the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, Lithuanian Armed Forces, Polish Armed Forces, Estonian Armed Forces, and many other elements of the Lithuanian government and civilian agencies.” The soldiers’ identities are being withheld pending confirmation of notification of next of kin.   This afternoon on Capitol Hill, military officials are set to discuss small drones and counter-drone technology in a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing featuring:  Marine Lt. Gen. Eric Austin, Deputy Commandant of the Marine Corps for Capabilities Development and Integration and Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Army Lt. Gen. Robert Collins, Principal Military Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology) and Director of the Army’s Acquisition Corps; Army Maj. Gen. David Stewart, Director Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office;  and Army Col. Guy Yelverton, Deputy for Acquisition and Systems Management and Program Executive Office Missiles & Space.  This Tactical Air and Land Forces subcommittee hearing begins at 2 p.m. Livestream here.  Etc. RIP, Iceman. Val Kilmer, who played the rival-turned-friend to Tom Cruise’s Maverick in the Top Gun movies, has died at 65, AP reports. “Ultimately, Iceman is the most heroic character in Top Gun, and other characters become more heroic by being more like him,” Collider wrote in a 2022 appreciation. “Maybe being an instructor at TOPGUN will keep Maverick from being a menace in the skies. But bottom line: Iceman deserved better.” ]]

[Category: Threats]

— US-Europe divorce unlikely—absent a new crisis

 

at 4/1/25 4:32pm

Growing concerns about the future of the United States’ relationship with NATO countries—fueled by Donald Trump’s overtures to Russia and attacks on Ukraine and Denmark—have spurred European officials to meet behind the scenes to discuss scenarios and build plans to replace American defense goods, according to a European diplomat with knowledge of the discussions.  But those increasingly intense discussions have highlighted a central fact: replacing American military might would not be easy, fast, or cheap. “Nobody actually wants to be autonomous. They all want to keep the ties with the Americans. Always have and always will,” the diplomat said. French president Emmanuel Macron described the urgency of the situation in March: “I want to believe that the United States will remain at our side. But we must be ready if that is not the case.”  No U.S. representatives have participated in the biweekly meetings thus far, according to the diplomat. But the engagements are helping to flesh out details for increased cooperation—such as which nations can produce which arms—and have led to four higher-level meetings between European leaders to cover potential joint weapons development, support for Ukraine, and other “big picture” questions, the diplomat said.  That picture gained significant detail in March with the EU publication of a 22-page white paper on closing capability gaps among EU countries. The plan, agreed to by European Union members, includes a joint commitment to spend 800 billion euro by 2030 on joint defense capabilities via a 150 billion euro loan instrument, debt sold on capital markets, and other vehicles.  Big increases in European defense spending align with what Trump has been urging since his first administration: more European spending on defense. It’s an idea NATO leadership has also been championing as vital to the strength of the alliance, and something many Eastern European countries have long called for.   [[Related Posts]] Former President Joe Biden’s national security team saw bigger European defense budgets as a win for U.S. defense manufacturers, since European countries supporting Ukraine would need to purchase at least some equipment from U.S. defense firms—and that support would not come at the expense of U.S. taxpayers. A plan to continue support for Ukraine with vital U.S. weapons that took shape in the final weeks of the last administration was conceived as a way to give Trump an easy political win and continue to support the country fending off invasion. But the Oval Office spectacle with Ukraine’s president in February, combined with recent White House rhetoric on Denmark, and the decision to briefly halt U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, have fractured European leaders’ trust in American leadership, the diplomat said: “Those have absolutely been turning points.”  The fracturing relationship has also weakened the allure of U.S. defense goods, as other nations worry that the White House, or individual defense contractors like Elon Musk, can change military outcomes based on personal political or financial incentives, the diplomat said. “What if theres a conflict in Europe and the same happens but for France, Germany, Denmark, or Norway? ‘Hey guys, if you dont make a deal, theres no more spare parts for your F-35s or no more ammo for Patriot [missile batteries?]’ Unreliability or unpredictability is not just poison for NATO. Its also poison for industry.”  While European leaders are increasingly wary of Trump, they don’t actually want to cut the United States out. The preference is still very much for  collaboration, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Defense One in an email.  “Trade between the EU and the U.S. has more than doubled over the past decade. The European Union is a reliable source of critical supplies to the United States, while being the largest buyer of the United States’ natural gas and oil. Millions of jobs in the U.S. depend on the EU,” he said. “The entire free world benefits from the cooperation between the EU and the USA. No one wins in a trade war or by ignoring each others interests, especially in defence. The United States is the EUs largest export partner and second-largest import partner.” An Eastern European defense official emphasized this point as well, signaling support for the “Trumpian” notion of larger EU defense budgets and greater European defense independence. But they also expressed a longing for a better partnership with the United States toward those mutual goals. “We are also looking to strengthen and enhance the capabilities of European defense. But we dont want to build walls where they are not necessary,” the official said. There’s a big reason not to build those walls, said Dan Darling, vice president of market insights at Forecast International.  He said European defense independence by 2030 is unlikely, or at least very difficult, due to industrial gaps.  “Europe is critically short of key enablers—command-and-control, long-range strike capability (crucial for suppression of enemy air defenses) intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance, artillery systems, drones and counter-drone systems, air-defense, airborne transport, logistical tail, and sufficient munitions,” he said. A State Department official who spoke to Defense One via email also downplayed the political rift and emphasized the importance of U.S. defense companies to Europe.  “They bring advanced technologies, innovation, and competitive pricing that enhances Europe’s defense capabilities with the necessary speed and scale. Maintaining NATO standards and interoperability as the foundation of Alliance security requires that all Allies work together on building our capabilities,” the official said. “The EU claims they want to strengthen European security, yet their exclusion of U.S. companies from European defense projects would come at the detriment of their own security.” One difficult-to-replace U.S. capability is satellite-based intelligence; the ability to see where Russians are staging missile and other attacks has proven essential to Ukraine’s defense. An independent defense industry analyst from the United States said it is also extremely unlikely that Europe would be able to develop its own space-based satellite capability by 2030.  Europe is also in the midst of a demographic crisis of shrinking populations. Even with advances in autonomy that may allow European operators on the ground to do more with less, “any army will require an expansion in the number of soldiers to operate the new kit,” Darling said.  “Therefore, any money spent on growing capabilities will have to go toward recruitment. Recruitment across Europe has proven difficult over the years.” Then there is the “patchwork” quality of European defense companies, as the U.K. based Royal United Services Union, or RUSI, think tank noted in March 2023. European governments are still incentivized to look out for their nations’ companies. RUSI pointed out that despite a 2020 EU pledge for countries to put 25 percent of their defense budgets toward collaborative investments, the actual number achieved was 11 percent. “This limited cooperation has, in turn, resulted in critical defence capability shortfalls, hampered interoperability among European armies and created economic losses due to unrealised economies of scale,” RUSI notes. Darling said Europe is simply too diverse, with too many countries with wildly different relationships with Washington and  Moscow, to reach simple, fast agreements on such big issues. “Asking 28-30 countries to be in constant alignment is naturally hard. Each country views their own security concerns and relations with Washington differently,” he said.  However, a new major geopolitical crisis, such as a Russian advancement on a NATO ally, could change that dynamic, forcing European governments to work together in ways that today would be politically difficult.  German intelligence services reportedly believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will attempt some sort of action against a NATO ally by the end of the decade. But, according to European media reporting, Lithuanian intelligence services believe Russia doesn’t have the means to carry out such a plan.  Darling is also skeptical that Russia would attempt an attack on a NATO ally now, regardless of Putin’s ambitions. “What is the likelihood Russia has enough bandwidth to invade the Baltics while it is struggling to carry out its current invasion of Ukraine?” he said. Still, a very different crisis might emerge to accelerate a painful European-U.S. divorce: a U.S. attack on Greenland. But sources were reluctant to engage on that possibility.  “I dont want to speculate on such a topic. Denmark and the U.S. are NATO allies, close partners, and this relationship offers broad opportunities for mutual cooperation, discussions, and ensuring security in the Arctic,” said Estonia’s Prime Minister. Remarked the European defense official: “That would affect the whole international rules-based order. That would be a huge step and difference from todays world.” Note: Forecast International shares a parent company with Defense One. ]]

[Category: Policy]

— Add special operators to the Joint Simulation Environment

 

at 4/1/25 2:07pm

The 2006 film X-Men: The Last Stand opened with an action-packed battle in the Danger Room, the superheroes’ futuristic virtual training facility. Weapons seemingly flew through the air, explosions were felt, and the stress was palpable—a fitting way for the uncanny team to train to face their enemies. The U.S. military’s air-combat warriors may lack mutant superpowers, but they have their own hyper-realistic training setup: the Joint Simulation Environment. As the joint Navy-Air Force program expands beyond fighter jets, it should include some ground-based superheroes as well: the tactical air control party, pararescue jumpers, and special tactics teams of Air Force Special Warfare. Since 2023, JSE installations have offered high-fidelity simulations of friendly and adversary air and surface entities interacting in dense, high-threat scenarios. Touted as the “digital range for the high end fight,” JSE offers an unmatched, government-owned, physics-based synthetic environment for operational testing, tactics development, and advanced training. Each of the roughly $30-million facilities—one apiece at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Edwards and Nellis Air Force Bases, and soon, NAS Fallon—houses domed simulators with 4K projectors, realistic cockpits, weapons flyout models, and actual aircraft-operational flight-program software. (There’s even a shipboard version aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.) With simulated weather, electromagnetic spectrum, and validated adversary threat models, training does not get much better for Airmen, whose live-fly options are perennially limited by geography, safety, cost, and other concerns. It is the Air Force’s stated goal to expand JSE to all current and future aircraft—but the service should think even bigger. In 2018, the ground operators dubbed Battlefield Airmen were renamed Air Force Special Warfare to reflect their specialized nature and the complex environments they operate in. Today, tactical air control party, special tactics, pararescue, and special reconnaissance operators handle air-ground-space-cyber integration in hostile, denied, and politically sensitive environments to optimize the application of airpower. Enabled by unique access and placement, they can execute a host of missions, including allied multi-domain operations; reconnaissance and surveillance; forward airfield operations; resilient command and control; cyber and electromagnetic activities; personnel and equipment recovery; and delivery of kinetic and non-kinetic joint fires. These operators’ capabilities are only becoming more important as China and other potential adversaries develop tactics and technology to counter the Air Force’s traditional playbook: large strike packages of fighters, bombers, refuelers, and airborne command and control. If service leaders are serious about regaining the advantage, they must develop new ways of fighting and of fully integrating their force’s capabilities—and that starts with training. Today’s Air Force special operators train with good, but limited systems. For example, Joint Terminal Attack Controllers and tactical command-and-control operators use localized virtual trainers to supplement live-fly operations with real aircraft. The Joint Terminal Control Training and Rehearsal System and Joint Theater Air-Ground Simulation System simulators are great for learning the procedures of joint fires and air-ground operations, but they cannot present the dense threats and signal-interfered environments of today and tomorrow. Nor do they facilitate exposure to the full range of possible contributions (e.g., special access programs) to a friendly kill chain. These shortfalls are mostly due to security-classification limitations in the systems’ architectures, which results in less integration and near-zero employment of advanced capabilities. No less than air crew, Air Force Special Warfare need the advanced training enabled by JSE. Fortunately, Air Force, Navy, and industry leaders are talking about ways to extend the simulation environment to more capabilities, users, and weapons. To be sure, program managers and service leaders will have hard decisions to make about which new systems and capabilities get added to JSE and when. But the service need not build a new sim or write a line of code to start bringing Air Force Special Warfare into the mix. The newest JSE is slated to come online later this year at Nellis, which is also home to the Weapons School and the Air Force’s best tacticians. Just add real special operators to the JSE exercises to plan, brief, decide, employ effects, assess, and debrief alongside their aviator counterparts. Start the conversations, build the relationships, and chart the path toward full integration. Even before that technology arrives, we may find that including Special Warfare personnel in JSE training has already begun to unleash novel and irregular ideas that produce new advantages in the air domain. As the X-Men know, putting the whole team in the Danger Room today is the best way to ensure victory tomorrow. Lt. Col. Justin “JB” Bañez is an active-duty Air Force Tactical Air Control Party Officer, currently serving as a National Defense Fellow in the National Capital Region. Before his fellowship, he served on the Joint Staff overseeing the Department of Defense’s largest Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense modeling and simulation event series. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.  ]]

[Category: Ideas]

— How NORAD could be hurt by US-Canada tensions

 

at 4/1/25 1:00pm

If President Trump’s tariffs and threats shatter the U.S.-Canadian defense partnership, the Pentagon would lose some ability to track incoming enemy threats. Without Canada’s radar sites, “the northern approaches would be severely under-resourced, and we would lose a significant amount of domain awareness and response in the northern approaches, which is the fastest and the easiest approach for adversaries to take to North America,” said Gen. Gregory Guillot, head of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command. The future of NORAD, the world’s only bi-national command, has come into question amid Trump’s threats to levy heavy tariffs—and turn America’s northern neighbor into its 51st state. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently declared the centuries-old U.S.-Canada relationship to be “over.” Everything NORAD does is “interwoven” with Canada, so the command would have to “fundamentally change” how it conducts air defense and maritime warning, Guillot told lawmakers during a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday.  He said the U.S. would need to spend heavily on radars, aircraft, and warships to rebuild its ability to spot incoming threats. However, Guillot said the military-to-military relationship between the U.S. and Canada remains “as strong as ever” and that he hasn’t seen the White House’s stance cause friction at NORAD. “We have several hundred Canadians that work side by side with us, as well as at the installations. At the military-to-military-relationship level, we have zero problems or concerns. Everybodys focused on defending our continent,” he said.  During the hearing, Democratic lawmakers voiced concerns that Trump’s trade wars are pushing allies away from the U.S, pointing to a recent agreement between Japan, South Korea, and China.  Trump is set to announce new tariffs on Wednesday with the stated aim of reducing U.S. reliance on foreign products.  “Were all going to find out tomorrow the extent of the next level of these tariffs, but its impossible for anyone to argue reasonably that its not impacting the ability of us to interact with our allies when their governments are being put under such strain and pressure with these policies that are again, seem to be cascading out every single day,” said Rep. Joe Courtney, D-CT.  Border operations Defense officials also testified on the department’s intensifying border operations, which have cost the Pentagon $376 million over the past two months, according to Rafael Leonardo, who is performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for Homeland Defense and Hemispheric Affairs. The money has gone to send more troops to the border, use military aircraft to deport people, and to expand detention operations at Guantanamo Bay, among other missions.  The department expects that level of spending to continue, Leonardo said, which could bring the total to $2 billion during Trump’s first year—but costs may continue to rise with the unusual deployment of two Navy destroyers to help with border operations.  These operations will likely continue for years, Guillot said.  “The initial results of sealing the border have been fantastic, if you look at the stats, but we need to make sure that [it’s] one thats lasting and goes through all the cycles of illegal migration that we see. Seasonal impact is significant on this. And then we need to make sure that its sealed, and it remains sealed. And I think that will take probably a couple of years,” Guillot said.  As of now, there are about 6,700 troops at the border, with 10,000 total expected to deploy. Guillot said that 90 percent of the troops are conducting surveillance missions at the border, and emphasized that troops are not detaining migrants.  But officials are reportedly mulling plans to have NORTHCOM take command of land along the border and designate it as a military installation, CNN reported, so if migrants step foot on the land they would be put into “holding” for trespassing, allowing the military to detain migrants. ]]

[Category: Threats]

— Administration, unions trade lawsuits over ‘national security' order to reduce feds' rights

 

at 4/1/25 11:00am

It’s been just days since President Trump signed an unprecedented executive order aimed at stripping two-thirds of the federal workforce of their collective-bargaining rights, but both the White House and federal employee unions are already trading lawsuits over the edict. Last Thursday, Trump signed an executive order citing a rarely used provision of the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act to ban unions at the Defense Department and other federal agencies under the guise of national security. Similar exemptions have existed across decades of executive orders—and several military conflicts—before Congress codified federal employees’ rights to join and be represented by organized labor, but no president has gone further than exempting the intelligence community and some law enforcement positions from those rights. That same night, federal agencies jointly filed a lawsuit against the American Federation of Government Employees, the nation’s largest federal employee union, in the U.S. District Court for western Texas’ Waco division. The filing requests a declaration that Trump’s order is lawful, greenlighting agencies to unilaterally repudiate their collective bargaining agreements with unions. “The court should declare that plaintiff agencies do have the power and authority under the executive order to rescind or repudiate the subject CBAs,” the government wrote. “The executive order was lawful under [Title 5 of the U.S. Code]. Through the executive order, the president has determined that plaintiffs agencies have ‘as a primary function intelligence, counterintelligence, investigative or national security work.” The Waco-based court has just one district jurist: Judge Alan Albright, a Trump appointee. The decision to file in that court was made just weeks after President Trump issued a memo to Attorney General Pam Bondi instructing her to pursue monetary penalties against organizations that file unsuccessful lawsuits that are deemed to have been subject to “court-shopping,” a practice used on both the right and the left to have their cases heard before judges that are ideologically friendly to their arguments. A second lawsuit, against the National Treasury Employees Union, was filed Friday in the Eastern District of Kentucky, another court with only Republican appointees. Experts have warned that the Trump administration has a steep evidentiary standard to prove that union representation hinders national security, particularly at agencies like the Veterans Affairs Department and Environmental Protection Agency, whose connection to national security are more tenuous. While the agencies’ lawsuit highlights some ways that domestic operations touch on security issues, such as Food and Drug Administration food inspectors’ role combatting the potential for poisoning Americans’ food supply, examples of how unions have tied the administration’s hands are mostly related to telework and how long agencies must give poor performing employees to improve before firing them. “In short, unions that oppose an administration’s agenda can freeze the status quo in place for a year or more by demanding midterm bargaining and dragging it out,” the government wrote. “Unions hostile to the president’s agenda can thus block or at least significantly delay the implementation of management polices that he considers necessary to ensure the effective and efficient operations of agencies—including, as relevant here, agencies with investigative and national security responsibilities. That, in turn, undermines the president’s authority to supervise his agents and threatens our nation’s security.” NTEU on Monday filed its own lawsuit challenging the president’s executive order in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, asserting that the edict conflicts with federal labor law and constitutes “political retribution” for the union’s protected First Amendment speech. “In justifying the executive order, the [White House’s] fact sheet states that ‘certain federal unions have declared war on President Trump’s agenda,” the union wrote. “[NTEU] is one of the federal unions that has fought back against President Trump’s agenda. It has filed lawsuits in federal district court against [Schedule F]; the administration’s attempt to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau . . . and the administration’s attempt to hobble the federal civil workforce overall through mass firings of probationary employees, reductions-in-force, and a pressure campaign to get federal workers to resign their positions.” The labor group also argued that one motivation for Trump’s order is simply to allow agencies to ignore union contract provisions governing reductions in force. “The OPM guidance on the executive order shows that the president’s primary motivation for the mass exclusion of agencies from the statute’s coverage is to make their employees easier to fire,” NTEU wrote. “The first section of the OPM guidance falls under the heading ‘Performance Accountability,’ which is aimed at ‘facilitating the separation of underperforming employees.’ . . . OPM thus presents the reason for the president’s mass exclusion of agencies from the statute’s coverage: nullifying those agencies’ collective bargaining agreements, so that they will no longer impede firing employees.” [[Related Posts]] ]]

[Category: Policy]

— The D Brief: US soldiers’ bodies found; Raising Nordic defenses; Russia’s new draft; A-10s to Middle East; And a bit more.

 

at 4/1/25 9:32am

Developing: The bodies of three U.S. soldiers were recovered Monday after their sunken M88A2 Hercules vehicle was finally retrieved from a swampy bog in eastern Lithuania, just a half-dozen miles from the border with Belarus.  “We will not rest until the fourth and final soldier is found and brought home,” Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said in a statement Monday. He also thanked “our dedicated allies in Lithuania and Poland” for their assistance in the recovery operation, which stretched across nearly seven consecutive days.  The soldiers were assigned to the 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team. Their 63-ton vehicle had been submerged “around four meters below the water’s surface and [was] encased in about two meters of mud,” service officials said over the weekend. “Operations continue to recover the fourth and final missing U.S. soldier,” officials at Army Europe said in a statement Tuesday.  The recovery teams have added “recovery dogs and two specialized drone systems—including one equipped with ground-penetrating radar…and overnight Estonia also joined the efforts” and brought two dogs “able to search the water,” Army Europe said. “Handlers have positioned the dogs in a U.S. Navy Rigid Inflatable Boat to locate any trace scents below the surface,” officials added.  For the record, “The names of the deceased are withheld pending confirmation of next of kin,” Army Europe said Tuesday.  New: Finland says it’s withdrawing from a 1997 treaty against the use of land mines, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced Tuesday in Helsinki. “Withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention will give us the possibility to prepare for the changes in the security environment in a more versatile way,” he told reporters, according to Reuters.  Just last month, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania each announced they, too, were exiting the treaty because “Military threats to NATO member states bordering Russia and Belarus have significantly increased,” the four Baltic states said in a joint statement. “In light of this unstable security environment marked by Russia’s aggression and its ongoing threat to the Euro-Atlantic community, it is essential to evaluate all measures to strengthen our deterrence and defense capabilities,” the four nations’ defense ministers said.  Fine print: “Leaving the treaty will require approval by the Finnish parliament but is expected to pass given widespread support among government and opposition parties,” Reuters notes. “More than 160 countries and territories are party to the Ottawa Treaty, including Ukraine. Neither the United States nor Russia are signatories,” Agence France-Presse adds.  By the way, “Norway is restoring [two of] its Cold War military bunkers,” the BBC reported Sunday. “At the peak of the Cold War, the sparsely populated, mountainous country had around 3,000 underground facilities where its armed forces and allies could hide and make life difficult for any invader.”  The two that are re-opening are the Bardufoss Air Station and the naval base at Olavsvern. “Carved out of a mountain side, protected by around 900ft (275m) of tough gabbro rock, the Olasvern base is particularly evocative with its 3,000ft-long (909m) exit tunnel complete with massive blast door,” the BBC reports. The facility at Bardufoss offers excellent protection from drone attacks targeting military aircraft, as Russia’s Ukraine invasion has highlighted.  “The reason for the reactivation of these bases is simple: Russia,” the BBC writes. Read on, here.  Related reading: “Latvians Prepare as the ‘Long Peace’ Ends,” historian and former Latvian parliamentarian Marija Golubeva wrote Monday for the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis. New: Russia says it will conscript 160,000 more troops for its ongoing Ukraine invasion, Politico reported Monday citing state-run media Interfax. “This conscription campaign may also indicate that, despite official statements about peace, Russia actually seeks to prolong the war,” Ukraine’s State Center for Countering Disinformation said in a statement.  By the way: A positive outcome of ceasefire talks “won’t happen this year, or maybe at the end of the year,” said Russian negotiator Grigori Karasin.  “This is a drawn-out process because of the difficulty of its substance,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday in a conference call with reporters. Meanwhile, the invasion continues: “Russia continues to pursue logistics infrastructure projects in occupied Ukraine in order to maximize economic control over occupied territories,” analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in an “occupation update” published Monday. “Russian occupation authorities also continue efforts to incentivize Russian citizens to relocate to occupied Ukraine from Russia in a clear violation of international law,” ISW added.  “Russia is playing games and not really wanting peace,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Monday. The Associated Press has a bit more. Additional reading: “Trump Wants NATO to Spend More. Europe Pitches Redefining Defense to Get There,” the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday from Brussels.  Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1945, the U.S. military invaded the Japanese island of Okinawa.  Around the Defense Department Today on Capitol Hill: John Caine, the retired Air Force three-star who is Trumps pick for chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is taking questions from senators during his confirmation hearing. A decorated command pilot with decades of service, Caine will still “need multiple waivers to step into the leadership role, since he is currently not in the service and does not meet statutory qualifications to step into the post," Military Times reminds us. “As an F-16 pilot with thousands of flight hours and multiple combat deployments, you have served with distinction in the Air Force and the Air National Guard,” Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island, said in his opening statement Tuesday. “Frankly, I am concerned about the health of civilian-military relations in our country,” said Reed. “Over the past several months, the military has been dragged into dangerous political fights. Public trust in the military is eroding, and I fear that the military’s trust in civilian leadership has been shaken.” “If confirmed, you will be responsible for identifying new joint capabilities and performing net assessments to ensure each of the services are procuring the right capabilities needed for the joint force,” the committee’s ranking member continued. “The Chairman must review capabilities holistically across the total force, which can conflict with the priorities of individual services. The committee would be interested to learn how you plan to manage this dynamic.” Watch what remains of the hearing’s livestream, here.  Also on the Hill today: Robert Salesses, Gen. Greg Guillot, & Adm. Alvin Holsey testify to the HASC on U.S. military posture and national security challenges in North and South America The Trump administration is escalating its war against the Houthis in Yemen by sending at least 300 airmen and “multiple” A-10s to the region, Task & Purpose reported Monday.  “The troops and aircraft, flown by members of the 190th Fighter Squadron, left Idaho on Saturday, March 29. The exact number of A-10s was not disclosed, beyond ‘several’ being deployed. The Idaho State Journal reports that the troops are on a 180-day deployment.” The U.S. Navy reportedly helped apprehend 13 people along with the Coast Guard and agents with U.S. Customs and Border Protection at an unspecified location, officials at Northern Command announced over the weekend on social media. “No further information was immediately available about what type of alleged illicit activity the 13 people apprehended by CBP agents are accused of doing,” Task & Purpose notes.  The U.S. military also helped El Salvador troops on an unspecified “counterterrorism mission” over the weekend, Department of Defense Chief of Staff Joe Kasper said in a statement Monday.  Full statement: “The Department of Defense completed a successful counterterrorism mission this weekend, in partnership with El Salvador. We commend the actions of our military personnel to degrade Foreign Terrorist Organizations under the leadership of President Trump.” Fine print: That “successful counterterrorism mission,” according to Reuters, “appeared to refer to the deportation of alleged criminals.” The State Department said in a separate statement Monday that the U.S. “military transferred a group of 17 violent criminals from the Tren de Aragua and MS-13 organizations, including murderers and rapists” on Sunday evening. More, here.  Related reading:  “Trump administration says man deported to El Salvador in error’,” Reuters reported Tuesday;  “After Visiting Guantanamo Bay, Senators Blast Trump Admin for Wasting Taxpayer Dollars & Misusing Military Resources,” five senators announced Saturday after a Friday trip to Gitmo; the delegation included Jack Reed, D-R.I.; Alex Padilla, D-Calif.; Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.; Gary Peters, D-Mich.; and Angus King, I-Maine. And “Texas’ AI-Powered Surveillance Arsenal Has Ballooned. Proposed Laws Provide Few Guardrails,” the Texas Observer reported Monday. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth wants to create new and different military fitness standards “to distinguish combat arms occupations from non-combat arms occupations,” he announced Monday in a memo (PDF).  “For certain combat arms roles, it is essential to identify which positions require heightened entry-level and sustained physical fitness,” Hegseth said in the memo. “These roles, which are critical to our military’s mission success, demand exceptional physical capabilities, and the standards for them must reflect that rigor,” said the former Army major who has posted numerous photographs of himself exercising with troops on social media.  “Different physical standards for men and women in the U.S. military have existed for a long time,” Hegseth said on social media Monday. “BUT, there were also combat roles that were male-only,” he added. “Then, under [President Barack] Obama, all combat roles were opened to men AND women. BUT, different physical fitness standards for men and women remained,” Hegseth complained.  “All combat roles are open to men and women BUT they must all meet the same, high standard,” Hegseth said Monday. “No standards will be lowered AND all combat roles will only have sex-neutral standards.” Rewind: “After years of internal deliberation over new annual fitness tests, the Army eased the grading standards for women and older service members in 2022,” the New York Times reports. “A study by the RAND research corporation published that year found that women and older troops were failing the new test at significantly higher rates than men and younger troops.” Worth noting: Gender-neutral fitness standards could pose new challenges for recruiting in the military, where females make up about 16% of the force. Females have been cited as lacking comparable upper body muscle mass compared to their male counterparts; this discrepancy has at times made pull-ups more difficult for women in uniform.  Another consideration: “Each service may define combat arms differently,” a defense official told Task & Purpose.  Related reading: “Ranger School scrapping traditional pushups and situps for functional fitness test,” Stars and Stripes reported last week.  Signalgate, cont. White House: “Case has been closed.” No one will be held accountable for senior Trump administration officials’ exposure of details of upcoming airstrikes in Yemen, spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Monday. “There have been steps made to ensure that something like that can, obviously, not happen again,” Leavitt said, declining to say what those might be. Lawmakers, who oversee the executive branch, aren’t all playing along. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., a decorated Marine veteran, told an interviewer that been hearing from a lot of his military contacts. "Theyre disgusted," he said. "And the ones who are still on active duty, I think, are honestly wondering, how are they expected to lead their troops?” Moulton said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should resign. CBS News reports, here. Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., says that would be “overkill” but told CNN that the Defense Department inspector general should launch an investigation—not into Hegseth’s pasting of attack details but into National Security Advisor Michael Waltz’s addition of a journalist into the Signal group chat. Via The Hill, here. DOD, DOJ, DHS look into chat-archiving services. Whiterock Technologies has fielded inquiries from all three agencies about preserving chats conducted over encrypted messaging apps on work devices, fueled by a lawsuit filed last week and a consequent judicial order that directed messages from the Signalgate chat to be preserved, according to people familiar with the discussions, reports Nextgov’s David DiMolfetta. Commentary: “The Message Pete Hegseth Sends the Troops,” from veteran war reporter-turned-columnist Bill Hennigan: “Mr. Hegseth must, at the very least, own up to his mistake. He’s already seen his first trip as secretary through the Asia-Pacific region overshadowed by calls for accountability. He now risks losing the trust of the military responsible for life-and-death missions every day — the very troops Mr. Hegseth affectionately calls his “fellow soldiers.’” Read, here. ICYMI: SNL parodied Trump’s Pentagon chief in its cold open sketch. (via YouTube). China Beijing’s military is exercising around Taiwan again after China’s Eastern Theatre Command called Taiwan’s president a “parasite” on Tuesday. “Taiwans defence ministry said it had not detected any live fire by the Chinese military, but that at least 71 Chinese military aircraft and 13 navy ships were involved,” Reuters reports. Among them were the ships of the Shandong aircraft carrier group, which entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. A military spokesman said the exercise is meant as a “severe warning and forceful containment against Taiwan independence.” Retorted Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo: “I want to say these actions amply reflect [China’s] destruction of regional peace and stability.” The Associated Press has more. Related reading: “Friends forever, never enemies, Chinese foreign minister tells Russia,” Reuters reported Monday.  ]]

[Category: Threats]

— Signalgate spurs DOD interest in chat-archiving services

 

at 3/31/25 4:41pm

Federal law requiring agencies to preserve electronic messages—and a lawsuit in the wake of the infamous group chat about strikes in Yemen—have officials with Defense, Justice, and Homeland Security reaching out to at least one company offers chat-archiving services. Whiterock Technologies has fielded inquiries from all three agencies about preserving chats conducted over encrypted messaging apps on work devices, fueled by a lawsuit filed last week and a consequent judicial order that directed messages from the Signalgate chat to be preserved, according to people familiar with the discussions. In the past week, some two dozen conversations with the company were facilitated by staff across those agencies which included legal counsel, chiefs of staff and chief information officers, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the scope and scale of the government’s interest in the company’s archiving service. Judge James Boasberg ruled Thursday that agencies involved in the Yemen-strike discussion should preserve the contents of the chat from March 11, when The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg was mistakenly added to the group chat, to March 15, when the bombings against the Iran-backed Houthis commenced. Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, among others, were present in the encrypted messaging exchange. Screenshots published by The Atlantic show that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz added Goldberg and initially set messages to auto-delete after one week before later setting them to delete after four weeks. The initial lawsuit that prompted Boasberg’s ruling was filed by American Oversight, a left-leaning advocacy group, arguing that the Signal chat violated the Federal Records Act because the exchange involved official agency communications that require full preservation. Encrypted communications, for federal employees, fall under the Freedom of Information Act and other open-records laws. The National Archives and Records Administration requires that encrypted electronic communications be transmitted to the agency for archiving in a decrypted form. Because encrypted messages can’t be read without specific decryption keys, an intercepted message would be unintelligible unless the proper keys are provided. In light of the increased focus on federal records retention, Whiterock’s Apostle-X A2 archiving product has been getting government attention, the company acknowledged.  “There has been a significant uptick in government and corporate clients reaching out to our team for A2 support. The recent Signal discussions have shed much needed light on this issue and we welcome that focus,” Whiterock CEO Dave Richardson said in an email. “Encrypted applications are the way forward, we just want to ensure folks are secure, legal and safe when using them for work purposes.” A product fact sheet from Whiterock obtained by Nextgov/FCW says government employees use of encrypted messaging apps without official permission “exposes organizations to significant risks of non-compliance with the Federal Records Act, agency regulations, [Freedom of Information Act] requirements and possible civil lawsuits and penalties.” The paper adds that the product “provides an easy-to-use real time database of ALL encrypted messaging app traffic allowing for immediate response to ediscovery, FOIA requests, compliance and regulatory inquiries. Additionally, the database can alert compliance and or legal departments of any sensitive matters that employees are communicating about on encrypted messaging apps.”  The claim implies that the tool would be able to record and preserve all messages exchanged over an encrypted medium, even if those messages are programmed by users to self-delete after a set time.  Two company directors who spoke to Nextgov/FCW on the condition of anonymity declined to publicly describe the inner workings of the product because a related version offered by Whiterock is already being used by law enforcement and the intelligence community for other applications, but they noted the tool doesn’t require a separate app to be installed on devices to archive encrypted chats. Spokespeople in the DOD, DOJ and DHS did not respond to requests for comment. The company’s board of advisors is made up of former FBI, DHS and DOD officials. In recent days, Whiterock has publicly weighed in on the fallout from the infamous Signal chat — which has become arguably the largest national security scandal of President Donald Trump’s second term — acknowledging the convenience and security of such applications while also noting that government traffic “must by law be fully captured, preserved and available on request.” The Atlantic published the Signal conversation in two stories, initially withholding certain contents until several Trump officials publicly denied the chat contained classified information.  Current and former officials have said that the strike plans sent by Hegseth, which included attack times and strike capabilities like F-18 jets and MQ-9 Reaper drones, were classified, and should have been communicated through secure mediums instead of an encrypted messaging app that allows messages to auto-disappear. “The conversation was candid and sensitive, but as the president [and] national security adviser stated, no classified information was shared,” Gabbard said in a House Intelligence Committee hearing last week after the Atlantic released the additional message transcripts. “This was a standard update to the National Security Cabinet that was provided alongside updates that were given to foreign partners in the region. The Signal message app comes pre-installed on government devices.” Gabbard’s statement that the Signal app comes “pre-installed” is inaccurate, people familiar with government mobile device policies told Nextgov/FCW last week. Waltz created and hosted several other sensitive national security discussions over Signal with cabinet members, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. The same day, Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that an independent investigation into the Signal incident is “entirely appropriate.” “Two questions: One is, obviously, how did a reporter get into this thread in the conversation? And the second part of the conversation is, when individuals from the administration are not sitting at their desk in a classified setting on a classified computer, how do they communicate to each other?” Lankford said. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said last week the Trump administration “has and will continue to comply with all applicable record-keeping laws.” A status report on the chat’s preservation efforts is expected to be filed in court Monday. In a Thursday filing, a U.S. attorney representing the national security officials in the lawsuit argued the order was not needed because the defendant agencies “are already taking steps to locate and preserve the Signal chat at issue, and at least one agency has already located, preserved, and copied into a federal record keeping system a partial version of the chat.” That specific agency is not named. ]]

[Category: Business]

— The D Brief: DOD-shakeup proposals due in days; Border-ops price tag; New Army tech; Rocketmakers’ green light; And a bit more.

 

at 3/31/25 9:14am

Senior Defense Department leaders have less than two weeks to submit proposals to shrink and reorganize their commands, agencies, and departments, Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a Friday memo that also proffered early-retirement and deferred-resignation deals to eligible civilian employees. Titled "Initiating the Workforce Acceleration and Recapitalization Initiative," the memo orders senior Pentagon leaders, combatant commanders, and defense agency and DOD field activity directors to each submit a proposed "future-state organizational chart" to the Pentagon’s personnel undersecretary, according to a March 29 DOD press release. “A summary of all those charts—which should include functional areas and consolidated management hierarchies with positional titles and counts clearly depicted—is due from USD (P&R) to the defense secretary no later than April 11, 2025,” the release said.  This reorganization is kicking off without a confirmed personnel undersecretary, while Hegseth, famously, has managed no organization larger than a pair of nonprofit advocacy groups, one of which “fell into financial difficulty during his time there,” as the Associated Press put it. The memo launches the latest phase of Hegseth’s rushed and rocky effort to shrink the department’s civilian workforce. When he took office in January, DOD employed about 760,000 civilians; within weeks, officials had announced plans to cut that number by five to eight percent. More, from Defense One’s Bradley Peniston, here. Family affair(s): Hegseth’s younger brother Phil is now working in the Pentagon as a liaison from the Department of Homeland Security, the Associated Press reported Friday. It is “not common for such a senior position to be filled by family members of the Cabinet heads,” AP wrote, citing Michael Fallings, a managing partner at Tully Rinckey PLLC, which specializes in federal employment law.  Also: Hegseth’s wife attended sensitive meetings. The SecDef “brought his wife, a former Fox & Friends producer, to two meetings with foreign military counterparts where sensitive information was discussed,” the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, adding that attendee lists “are usually carefully limited to those who need to be there and attendees are typically expected to possess security clearances given the delicate nature of the discussions, according to defense officials and people familiar with the meeting.” Read that, here. Signalgate: Fighter pilots slam Hegseth for spilling secrets, evading accountability. New York Times: “The mistaken inclusion of the editor in chief of The Atlantic in the [Signal chat about Yemen] and Mr. Hegseth’s insistence that he did nothing wrong by disclosing the secret plans upend decades of military doctrine about operational security, a dozen Air Force and Navy fighter pilots said. Worse, they said, is that going forward, they can no longer be certain that the Pentagon is focused on their safety when they strap into cockpits.” Read, here. Related reading: “Where Was Each Member of the Signal Group Chat?” is the Times’ latest addition to the growing genre of annotations to the chat transcript. “How the Trump administration has downplayed the Signal chat scandal,” from the Washington Post. “Officials say texts sent by Waltz, Ratcliffe in Signal chat may have damaged US’ ongoing ability to gather intel on Houthis,” CNN reported Friday.  Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 2022, the Ukrainian military pushed Russian invasion forces out of the city of Bucha, where the Vladimir Putin’s soldiers were later revealed to have carried out rape, torture, and executions of more than 400 people.  Around the Defense Department Developing: Six days after it sank into a bog during a training mission in eastern Europe, the U.S. Army’s M88A2 Hercules “armored vehicle has been pulled out,” Lithuania’s top officer Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras announced Monday on Facebook. “I ask for everyones respect and solidarity while waiting for additional information from our U.S. colleagues,” he said, and added a note of thanks “to everyone who worked together” in the vehicle recovery efforts since Wednesday.  The 70-ton vehicle was located on March 26, one day after it and the four soldiers inside were declared missing in Lithuania’s Pabrade training area, near the border with Belarus. Army officials said Sunday the vehicle was submerged “around four meters below the water’s surface and [was] encased in about two meters of mud.” Few observers believe the soldiers are still alive, but Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said Monday that their fate has yet to be determined. “Theres a strict agreement that the Americans will be the first to make any announcements,” he told Lithuanian public radio, according to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.  Recovering the vehicle has been a multi-national affair, with Americans and Lithuanians joined by Polish rescue workers who brought 13 vehicles, “including four heavy trucks, one engineer workshop/tool truck, one fueler with 10 tons of fuel, and three WZT-3 tracked recovery vehicles (similar to the Hercules),” U.S. Army Europe said on Saturday. For its part, the U.S. military dispatched three CH-47 Chinooks for heavy lift support and two UH-60M Blackhawks for medical evacuation, as well as one UH-60L and two more Blackhawks for lifting and general assistance. “We cannot thank our Allies enough for everything theyve done for us to help find our soldiers,” Col. Jim Armstrong, commander of 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, said in a statement Sunday. “They see our Soldiers as their own Soldiers, and we are absolutely in this together,” he added.  Update: The U.S. military’s border-support missions have cost more than $300 million in just the first six weeks since Trump was inaugurated, CNN reported this weekend. Such a pace would eventually cost more than $2.5 billion annually.  Prior recent reporting estimated Trump’s military border support could cost between $1 billion and $2 billion, as CQ Roll Call posted four weeks ago, citing Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Jack Reed, D-R.I.  “They’re drunk on OCO money,” a U.S. official told CNN, referring to Overseas Contingency Operation funding for military operations separate from the Defense Department’s base budget. What are these roughly 9,000-plus active duty troops doing? “Building barricades, putting up concertina wire, and generally ‘just standing around,’” one defense official said.  “The total cost of the operation across the federal government remains unclear,” CNN writes. This is because “Those figures do not include money spent by the Department of Homeland Security, the intelligence community and other agencies who have also surged government assets to the border, where President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency.” Why it matters: “Critics argue that the Trump administration is inflating the nature of the threat relative to other priorities—like countering China and Russia or combatting terrorism—and that shifting military assets away from those efforts risks national security.” More, here.  For what it’s worth: Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue, with 49% of those polled saying they strongly or somewhat approve” of how he’s handling the matter, according to new survey data from the Associated Press-NORC. The country is closely split, however, as 50% of respondents said they “strongly or somewhat disapprove” of how he’s handling immigration.  Related reading: “How Trump Is Leaning on the Military to Fulfill His Hopes of Mass Deportations and an Immigration Freeze,” Military-dot-com reported Friday.  Can a self-powered laser shoot down drones threatening U.S. troops? Maybe a 3D-printed kamikaze drone with a jet engine can help. Those are questions Army officials are pursuing as the service seeks “simple and cheap” technology to help defend against drones, Defense One’s Meghann Myers reported Friday from AUSA’s Global Force Symposium in Huntsville, Ala. Myers: One company has a 3D-printed unmanned aerial vehicle on offer as part of the Army’s Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance, or LASSO, program, which is due to put out a request for proposals any day now. Dubbed the Hellhound S3, the turbojet-powered drone doesn’t look like the quadcopter you probably picture when you think of an armed UAV. It looks like a fighter jet, and it can be loaded up with not only weapons but sensors or electronic warfare jammers. “The idea is one vehicle, multiple payloads, giving the soldier the maximum flexibility to support whatever the mission needs are in the battlefield,” Sheila Cummings, CEO of Cummings Aerospace, told Defense One. Read on, here.  New: Two emerging rocketmakers received a key greenlight on their road to competing for Space Force satellite launches, Defense One’s Audrey Decker reported Friday.  Rocket Lab and Stoke Space will join Blue Origin, SpaceX, and United Launch Alliance as contenders for future launch missions, Space Force officials announced Thursday. The two companies each received $5 million task orders to “conduct an initial capabilities assessment and develop their approach to tailored mission assurance.” Both companies have been developing medium-lift vehicles to break into the market, with Rocket Lab readying its Neutron rocket and Stoke Space’s Nova rocket. Continue reading, here.  Lastly: A military aircraft nearly collided with a passenger airliner in Washington on Friday. “Delta Flight 2983, an Airbus A319 bound for Minneapolis-St. Paul, had just taken off from DCA at around 3:15 p.m. when the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System” sounded, indicating “the plane was on a potential collision course with another aircraft,” Newsweek reports.  An Air Force T-38 jet flew past the Delta plane at 800 feet while traveling more than 350 miles per hour, tracking data from FlightRadar24 showed. “Four U.S. Air Force T-38 Talons were inbound to Arlington National Cemetery for a flyover at the time of the incident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said in a statement,” Newsweek writes. More, here.  Additional reading:  “Secret Pentagon memo on China, homeland has Heritage fingerprints,” the Washington Post reported Saturday; see also a new policy paper from the UK’s Royal United Services Institute entitled, “Taiwan’s Evolving Response to China’s Grey Zone Actions,” published Monday;  “Move fast, kill things: the tech startups trying to reinvent defence with Silicon Valley values,” via the Guardian, reporting Saturday as well.  See also, “Inside a Marines decision to eject from a failing F-35B fighter jet and the betrayal in its wake,” via Charleston, South Carolina’s Post & Courier reporting in a #LongRead on Sunday.  ]]

[Category: Threats]

— SecDef gives DOD leaders less than two weeks to lay out cuts, changes

 

at 3/29/25 12:51pm

Updated: 3:47 p.m. ET. Senior Defense Department leaders have less than two weeks to submit proposals to shrink and reorganize their commands, agencies, and departments, Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a memo that also proffered early-retirement and deferred-resignation deals to eligible civilian employees. The March 28 memo launches the latest phase of Hegseth’s rushed and rocky effort to shrink the department’s civilian workforce. When he took office in January, DOD employed about 760,000 civilians; within weeks, officials had announced plans to cut that number by five to eight percent. The memo, titled "Initiating the Workforce Acceleration and Recapitalization Initiative," orders senior Pentagon leaders, combatant commanders, and defense agency and DOD field activity directors to each submit a proposed "future-state organizational chart" to the Pentagon’s personnel undersecretary, according to a March 29 DOD press release.  “A summary of all those charts — which should include functional areas and consolidated management hierarchies with positional titles and counts clearly depicted — is due from USD(P&R) to the defense secretary no later than April 11, 2025,” the release said.   In his memo, Hegseth said he aims to reduce duplication and excessive bureaucracy, using “an honest analysis of the workforce” and “automation through technological solutions, particularly at the headquarters level.” He added that he wants to “maximize” voluntary retirements and “minimize the number of involuntary actions.” The memo does not set numerical goals for layoffs, according to the release. The culling of the civilian workforce is part of an effort to "strategically restructure it to supercharge our American warfighters consistent with my interim National Defense Strategy guidance," the release said, quoting the memo. Departure deals The memo offers two deals intended to persuade civilian workers to leave voluntarily. One is early retirement for employees who have at least 25 years of federal service, or at least 20 years for those over 50 years old. DOD is among several federal agencies to offer this deal since the White House authorized it in January. The other is a re-up of the deferred-resignation deal offered by the White House to most federal employees from Jan. 28 to Feb. 12: employees can stop working now but receive full pay and benefits until Sept. 30. The memo says the deal is now being offered by DOD itself. More than 20,000 defense civilians took the earlier offer, officials have said. But at least some employees have reported problems with its execution. “Met all the ‘drop dead’ deadlines yet here I still sit, working away because the Department of Defense has not conducted the analysis needed to move this along,” one said. Others said they applied for the deal but were blocked by supervisors who declared them essential.  Such "[e]xemptions should be rare," Hegseth said in the new memo. "My intent is to maximize participation so that we can minimize the number of involuntary actions that may be required to achieve the strategic objectives." “Involuntary actions” may be a reference to several things. From mid-February to mid-March, Pentagon officials fired 364 employees in their probationary periods, the first batch of a planned 5,400. Officials insisted at first that firing employees who had yet to receive full civil-service protection was Hegseth’s idea, but later conceded in court filings that it was part of a broader White House effort. On March 13, a judge ordered the employees reinstated, saying that their dismissals, ostensibly for poor performance, were “based on a lie.” Another form of involuntary action is a “reduction in force”—i.e., layoffs. On Feb. 11, the White House ordered all federal agencies to submit plans by March 13 to lay off workers in coordination with Elon Musk’s DOGE office.  In the meantime, a hiring freeze imposed by Hegseth is shrinking the defense workforce by some 6,000 people per month as employees leave and are not replaced.  Hegseth’s expressed desire to “minimize the number of involuntary actions” may be a reaction to the disruption, demoralization, and decrease in productivity reported earlier this month by department employees who shared their stories with Defense One.  Or perhaps not: a key figure in the Trump administration’s wider campaign to slash federal agencies has said cruelty is part of the plan. “We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected,” Russell Vought, Trump’s director of the Office of Management and the Budget, said in a 2023 speech. “When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work because they are increasingly viewed as the villains.”  Asked earlier in March whether the anxiety among the DOD workforce was an intended consequence of these policies, Pentagon Press Secretary John Ullyot said that “as we take these important steps to reshape the workforce to meet the President’s priorities, the Department will treat our workers with dignity and respect as it always does.” Asked for comment about the new memo, details of the offers, and the intent of the phrase “minimize the number of involuntary actions,” a DOD spokesperson said only that the memo would eventually be posted on this web page. Defense One’s Meghann Myers and GovExec’s Eric Katz contributed to this report. ]]

[Category: Policy]

— The Army wants simple, cheap unmanned tech—here are some options

 

at 3/28/25 1:51pm

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought into stark relief that the U.S. Army needs not just powerful vehicles and artillery, but lots and lots of simpler unmanned and counter-unmanned systems for drone warfare. “When America brings its best technology-wise, its exquisite, and we should keep doing that,” Gen. Jim Rainey, the head of Army Futures Command, said Thursday at AUSA’s Global Force Symposium. “At the same time, we should buy cheap mass. [There’s a] lot of value in 30mm cheap rounds that can knock down UAVs, even if you have to shoot a burst of 30 at it.” One company has a 3D-printed unmanned aerial vehicle on offer as part of the Army’s Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance, or LASSO, program, which is due to put out a request for proposals any day now. Dubbed the Hellhound S3, the turbojet-powered drone doesn’t look like the quadcopter you probably picture when you think of an armed UAV. It looks like a fighter jet, and it can be loaded up with not only weapons but sensors or electronic warfare jammers. “The LASSO program brings some really unique requirements – you want something that gives you loiter time, but also allows you to do precision strike at a target,” Sheila Cummings, CEO of Cummings Aerospace, told Defense One. “And so its a combination of both missile—and, if you will—more traditional aircraft design.” [[Related Posts]] It topped out at 384 miles an hour during its most recent test in January, Cummings said, at Fort Benning, Georgia, during the latest Army Expeditionary Warrior Experiment. “The idea is one vehicle, multiple payloads, giving the soldier the maximum flexibility to support whatever the mission needs are in the battlefield,” she added. The whole system weighs less than 25 pounds and allows soldiers to change out payloads in under five minutes, without tools. It’s also completely 3D-printed, so it can be manufactured in a few hours with inexpensive materials, and repaired on the battlefield. “So imagine you have a shipping container with 3D printers in a forward operating base,” Cummings said. “The warfighter could ultimately replace parts that may get broken or damaged, really minimizing that logistics train by putting that capability in the forward operating base.” In addition to sending up its own drones, the Army is in desperate need of something to counter drone swarms, a key tactic of Russia’s ground war in Ukraine. While Rainey mentioned shooting bullets at a drone, Leonardo DRS is developing a counter-drone laser for mounting atop a Stryker vehicle.  “We cannot continue to shoot, you know, a $1,500 drone with a $100,000 missile, right? Or a million dollar missile,” Ed House, a senior director of business development, told Defense One. “And you know, you hear senior Army leaders say, ‘Hey, weve got to get to a lower price point per shot.’ Thats what a laser brings to the game.”  The Blue Halo 26kW had a successful test in August and then went through two weeks of Army evaluation in December. “We were able to demonstrate that you could shoot the laser at a drone while youre shooting a 7.62mm machine gun simultaneously against a ground target, and both were effective,” House said. Their engineers estimate they could run the laser for two straight minutes at a time without burning it out, House added, and testing has shown it only takes a few seconds to shoot down a drone. The system comes with a built-in generator so there’s no downtime for recharging. The laser sits alongside a larger counter-UAS Stryker system that also has a 30mm cannon, multi-mission radars and a Coyote missile launcher. “Did we prove that you could operate a laser without batteries? Yes, we did. Could you fire the machine gun at the same time you fire the laser? Yes, we can,” House said. Only the 30mm cannon seems to interfere with the laser, he added, so company engineers are working on a fix.  The system is next due to participate in a live-fire exercise trial in June at Fort Sill, Oklahoma. ]]

[Category: Science & Tech]

— Two rocket makers take step toward Space Force launches

 

at 3/28/25 1:44pm

Two emerging rocketmakers have received a key greenlight on their road to competing for Space Force satellite launches.  Service officials announced Thursday that Rocket Lab and Stoke Space will join Blue Origin, SpaceX, and United Launch Alliance as contenders for future launch missions. The two companies each received $5 million task orders to “conduct an initial capabilities assessment and develop their approach to tailored mission assurance.” If they can clear that inspection—and successfully launch a rocket to space by year’s end—they could start bidding on the next tranche of launches in Lane 1 of the larger group called National Space Security Launch Phase 3. At least 30 Lane-1 missions will be awarded between fiscal 2025 and 2029 for a total of some $5.6 billion, Space Systems Command has said. “With today’s award, the Space Force expanded our portfolio of launch systems able to deliver critical space capability. These new partners bring innovative approaches and increased competition to our mission area,” Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, the program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, said in a statement. “Our Lane 1 goal is to bring in new partners to increase capacity, resiliency, and speed.” [[Related Posts]] In 2023, Space Force split NSSL Phase 3 into two groups: less-risky missions in Lane 1 and more challenging ones in Lane 2. The idea was to hasten the market entry of more rocketmakers and drive down launch costs. But no new entrant has cleared the bar, and last year, officials awarded SpaceX a $733.5 million contract for the first set of Lane 1 missions.  Both companies have been developing medium-lift vehicles to break into the market, with Rocket Lab readying its Neutron rocket and Stoke Space’s Nova rocket.  At the end of last year, Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said the company will be able to launch Neutron by the end of 2025, despite questions about the readiness of its rocket and launch infrastructure. Rocket Lab is being sued by a shareholder who alleges the company and Beck made false and/or misleading statements about the company’s true timeline for Neutron.   When the Space Force launched the competition in 2023, officials knew it wouldn’t bring in new entrants immediately, but they didn’t want to wait for companies to be ready before launching the dual-lane approach, Panzenhagen told reporters last year.  “We never expected that it was going to be immediate in the first year because this is rocket science, right? Developing rockets, designing them, producing them, buying them is hard. Weve got a lot of new companies working at it that were excited to bring on, but we know that its going to take time to flush all this out,” Panzenhagen said.  ]]

[Category: Business]

— The D Brief: Accountability watch; Golden Dome options; WH pursues Ukraine’s minerals; EU suggests stockpiling food; And a bit more.

 

at 3/28/25 9:31am

SecDef’s group chat fallout continues: A federal judge on Thursday ordered Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and several others on President Donald Trump’s national security team “to preserve all Signal communications between March 11 and March 15.”  The judge’s order came in response to a lawsuit filed this week by the government accountability group American Oversight, which claimed that Hegseth, Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and others on an unsecured group chat may have violated the Federal Records Act by setting their Signal messages to delete after seven days in one instance, and after four weeks in a related instance. Their group chat discussing impending U.S. military action in Yemen was revealed this week by Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, who was apparently added to the group accidentally by Waltz without the knowledge of others in the group. American Oversight: “The public has a right to know how decisions about war and national security are made—and accountability doesn’t disappear just because a message was set to auto-delete,” the group’s interim executive director Chioma Chukwu said in a statement Thursday.   Why it matters: “The judge’s order was an early sign that at least some of the usual channels of accountability are still operating after the most senior administration officials engaged in an extraordinary breach of operational security and Mr. Trump’s attorney general, Pam Bondi, signaled that the Justice Department is not likely to investigate the matter,” the New York Times reported after the judge’s order.  Big-picture consideration: “The existence of the group chat, and the inadvertent disclosure of messages to a journalist, has sparked a brewing controversy over the Trump administrations treatment of sensitive military and intelligence information,” Reuters reports.  Those concerns are exacerbated by Trump’s resistance to holding anyone accountable for the breach. “Incidents like this make my job significantly harder,” a Department of Defense operations security, or OPSEC, official told The Atlantic. “When senior leadership disregards OPSEC and security protocols without consequences, it undermines the work we do to enforce these standards.”  That includes Hegseth, noted in the past for his insistence that “accountability is coming” to the Pentagon. “When the secretary of Defense won’t hold himself to the same standard as the colonels, captains and corporals down the chain of command, that’s a problem. Troop morale shoots straight down,” ML Cavanaugh, co-founder of West Point’s Modern War Institute, writes in the Los Angeles Times. Related: “Concerns about Hegseth’s judgment come roaring back after group chat scandal,” CNN wrote on Thursday, citing “interviews with multiple current and former national security officials this week, including career military and civilian officials.” “Trump allies are starting to notice Hegseths growing pile of mistakes,” wrote Politico on Thursday. “The problem is this is another example of inexperience,” said a person close to the White House, who like others, was granted anonymity to discuss a politically sensitive issue. “What happens when Hegseth needs to manage a real crisis?”  Meanwhile, the White House has instructed DOGE employees to preserve their own Signal records. A one-page policy statement dated March 25 reminds Elon Musk’s team that federal law requires them “to preserve all work-related communications and records, regardless of format,” Politico reported Thursday. Yemen update: Despite the damage to the Houthi group’s weapons and infrastructure inflicted by the strikes that began on March 15, the Wall Street Journal says, “The Iran-backed militia—which controls a swath of Yemen—continues to get off near-daily missile attacks on Israel. Most commercial ship traffic is still being redirected to the long way around southern Africa and away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, underscoring the stakes for U.S. credibility as a guarantor of freedom of navigation on the high seas.” Read on, here. Welcome to this Friday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1979, the Three Mile Island nuclear meltdown occurred near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Update: Trump to get Golden Dome options next week, a defense source tells Defense One’s Patrick Tucker. The commander in chief will be briefe on three options for his ambitious, futuristic missile shield, said a defense official who added that DOD might need a new office to build it. Read on, here. Europe The White House is pushing Ukraine to sign an even more expansive mineral-rights deal than the one Trump floated in mid-February, the Financial Times reported Thursday—along with the 55-page draft (PDF). Ukraine’s president rejected Trump’s initial plan, though both countries’ representatives agreed to continue talks on mineral rights in their joint statement on March 11.  What’s inside: “The new proposal stipulates that the U.S. is given first rights to purchase resources extracted…and that it recoup all the money it has given Ukraine since 2022, in addition to a 4% annual interest rate, before Ukraine begins to gain access to the funds profits,” Reuters reports. “The terms put forward by Washington go well beyond the deal discussed” in February, the wire service writes, concurring with FT.  Also: This latest pitch “gives Ukraine no future security guarantees but requires it to contribute to a joint investment fund all income from the use of natural resources managed by state and private enterprises across Ukrainian territory,” Reuters reports.  What’s different: “Now, demands that Kyiv had previously succeeded in removing—that Washington retains control of the fund and that Ukraine repays past U.S. aid—have resurfaced in the latest proposal,” the New York Times reports. “The security guarantees also disappeared.”  View a map of approximate locations for select Ukrainian minerals, via the UK’s Sky News, here.  Bloomberg’s topline read: “The US is pushing to control all major future infrastructure and mineral investments in Ukraine, potentially gaining a veto over any role for Kyiv’s other allies and undermining its bid for European Union membership.” And here’s the UK Telegraph’s headline treatment: “Revealed: Trump’s plan to force Ukraine to restore Putin’s gas empire // America holds gun to Zelensky’s head with unprecedented reparation demands.” Trump’s NSC: “The mineral deal offers Ukraine the opportunity to form an enduring economic relationship with the United States that is the basis for long term security and peace,” National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt said in a statement.  Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy said the new draft will require “detailed study” before Kyiv signs, but he added Thursday, “We don’t want to send any signals that could lead the U.S. to stop aid to Ukraine.” Said one Ukrainian lawmaker on Thursday: “There is zero chance that it will be approved as it is now.” Said another: “The goal is to continue negotiations and find a compromise.” The Times has a bit more. Additional reading:  “Trump reverses termination of program tracking mass child abductions in Ukraine,” the Washington Post reported Thursday evening;  “Europeans told to stockpile 72 hours worth of food,” Newsweek reported Thursday;  “Why American Soldiers Are in Lithuania,” The Atlantic reported in an explainer Thursday after the possible deaths of four U.S. troops during a training mission this week in eastern Europe.  Etc. Lastly this week: Trump’s tariff war and talk of making Canada its “51st state” have cost the U.S. its closest ally. “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday in Ottawa.  Canadians must now “fundamentally reimagine our economy,” Carney told reporters after a cabinet meeting.  Behind the scenes: “Carney suspended several campaign events scheduled for Thursday to meet with members of his cabinet to discuss how the government would respond to Trump’s executive action imposing a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported to the U.S.,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The latest tariffs are set to take effect on April 3, a day after the president has said he will announce a broader round of trade actions.” ICYMI, here’s the Journal’s Monday headline: “Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades” (gift link). Reminder: Carney’s predecessor Justin Trudeau warned in an outgoing message three weeks ago, “What [Trump] wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because thatll make it easier to annex us.” “I reject any attempts to weaken Canada, to wear us down, to break us so that America can own us. That will never happen,” Carney said Thursday. What’s next: The prime minister is set to discuss trade with Trump sometime later Friday. Ottawa’s CBC news has more. ]]

[Category: Threats]

— Defense One Radio, Ep. 176: Space Force Gen. Chance Saltzman

 

at 3/28/25 8:35am

Google Pla Apple Podcasts Guest: U.S. Space Force commander Gen. Chance Saltzman, interviewed by Defense One’s Audrey Decker. Catch our full State of Defense agenda and future events, running through the end of March, here. ]]

[Category: Science & Tech]

— Trump aims to outlaw most government unions on ‘national security’ grounds

 

at 3/27/25 10:31pm

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order purporting to outlaw collective bargaining across two-thirds of the federal government, citing a little-used provision of federal labor law that invokes national security. A "fact sheet" says the order applies a rarely used provision of the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act that allows the president to exclude agencies and their offices from collective bargaining rules that “cannot be applied to that agency or subdivision in a manner consistent with national security requirements.” Trump first considered using this authority in early 2020, granting then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper the ability to exclude the Pentagon from federal labor law. Following bipartisan pushback in Congress, Esper elected not to use the authority. According to the White House, Trump’s new edict “ends collective bargaining” with unions at the Defense, State, Veterans Affairs, Justice, and Energy departments, as well as portions of the Homeland Security, Treasury, Health and Human Services, Interior, and Agriculture departments. The International Trade Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Agency for International Development, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, National Science Foundation, International Trade Commission, the Federal Communications Commission and General Services Administration also are no longer subject to federal labor law, nor are chief information officers’ offices across government. All told, the agencies covered by Trump’s order employ 67% of federal workers, and three-quarters of feds represented by unions. The leader of the largest federal employee union vowed to take "legal action" to block the orders implementation. In a statement, Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said Trump was retaliating against unions working to protect employees rights amid his administrations mass firings. "President Trumps latest executive order is a disgraceful and retaliatory attack on the rights of hundreds of thousands of patriotic American civil servants—nearly one-third of whom are veterans—simply because they are members of a union that stands up to his harmful policies," Kelley said. "This administration’s bullying tactics represent a clear threat not just to federal employees and their unions, but to every American who values democracy and the freedoms of speech and association. Trump’s threat to unions and working people across America is clear: fall in line or else." Guidance issued by acting Office of Personnel Management Director Charles Ezell told agencies cited in the edict that they are “no longer subject to the collective bargaining requirements” under Title 5 of the U.S. Code, though they should consult with their general counsel regarding implementation. Agencies have been instructed to cease "participating" in any ongoing grievance proceedings before independent arbitrators. Don Kettl, dean emeritus and a former professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, said the Civil Service Reform Act’s national-security exemption does not stretch far enough to cover the agencies cited by the Trump administration. “The president has power to change the conditions under which union representation occurs and to negotiate new contracts when existing ones expire,” Kettl said. “But the president cannot simply wipe away existing agreements.” And while the White House’s fact sheet cites the national-security exemption in the 1978 law, it repeatedly criticizes the law and accuses unions of “declaring war” on the president’s agenda, citing unions’ grievances and lawsuits seeking to block the White House’s efforts to purge and politicize the federal workforce. “The exemption here seems to suggest that the national-security responsibilities of the president supersede any existing union agreements and that, therefore, the president can push those existing agreements aside,” Kettl said. “Moreover, the fact sheet asserts that the Civil Service Reform Act allows unions to obstruct agency management. This is a double-barreled shotgun, aimed both at the CSRA in general and at the unions in particular.” ]]

[Category: Policy]

— Trump to get Golden Dome options next week: defense source

 

at 3/27/25 8:53pm

President Trump next week will consider three options for his Golden Dome missile-defense project, said a defense official who added that DOD might create an office to build the ambitious, futuristic missile shield. A “tiger team” drawn from various defense and military agencies is putting together options of varying scope and complexity, but all will likely require more coordination than today’s Missile Defense Agency can offer, the official told Defense One on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “You probably would need to come up with a new organization to handle that,” the official said. Two other sources familiar with the discussions said a new office is already in the works, with a list of candidates being drawn up to lead it. The Pentagon is still in the early stages of determining how to pursue what would be the most ambitious missile-defense project in history.  [[Related Posts]] The Golden Dome effort will likely include near-term goals—such as improving the accuracy and effectiveness of ground-based missile interceptors—that can be completed before the 2026 midterm elections, enabling the White House to claim some quick success. More ambitious efforts are likely to take at least five to seven years to arrive, like satellites that track, analyze, communicate about, and destroy incoming missiles, according to the defense official. The Pentagon has received more than 360 responses to a request for information posted last month. These have included ideas for new sensors, encryption, satellite technology, and more; as well as larger concepts that would integrate technologies and products from multiple companies, Mark Wright, the director of public affairs at the Missile Defense Agency, told Defense One. These ideas will eventually inform the requirements and formal program, sources said. Two of the companies are Lockheed Martin and Booz Allen Hamilton, company representatives confirmed. Others include RTX and Boeing, according to a former senior defense official familiar with the Pentagon’s deliberations on Golden Dome. The former official and an industry expert said SpaceX—a launch provider that also builds satellites—would also be well-positioned to compete for the program. But they could not say whether Elon Musk’s company would compete. A former senior official said the project might be unattractive to the company since it would do little to enhance SpaceX’s other businesses.  On Thursday, Booz Allen Hamilton officials spoke to reporters about their “Brilliant Swarms” idea: a networked constellation of thousands of satellites flying in 20 orbital planes some 300 to 600 kilometers up. Each would have artificial intelligence to make sense of data from many sources: their own sensors, ground radars, the Space Development Agency’s nascent tracking constellation, and more. “This network of low-Earth orbit satellites works together, operating autonomously to detect, track, and intercept ballistic missiles just minutes after launch, neutralizing the threat before warheads deploy—and with a much higher probability of success,” company officials wrote on their website this week.  “We would have the ability to track any and all ballistic missiles from birth to death,” Chris Bogdan, executive vice president and leader for Booz Allen’s space business, told Defense One. Each satellite—weighing between 40 to 80 kilograms and about the size of a “small refrigerator”—would also be a kill vehicle, able to take out an incoming missile by crashing into it, Bogdan said.  At those speeds, when the intercepting satellite hits the warhead about 50 percent turns to plasma and dissipates, 40 percent of the debris will burn up re-entering the atmosphere and 10 percent will make it to the ground well short of the target, Trey Obering, a Booz Allen Hamilton senior executive advisor and former Missile Defense Agency director said, citing the company’s tests.  About 40 percent of the satellite “will burn up coming back into the atmosphere,” he said. The majority of the rest of it—plus the plasma field—would strike the target, while “about 2 percent actually could make it to the ground in some kind of debris,” he said.  Booz officials believe that if they win the contract, they would be able to demonstrate the concept in space against multiple “uncooperative” targets by the fourth year of the program, and reach initial operating capability within five to seven years. But the former senior defense official and an industry expert familiar with the Pentagon’s deliberations said the entire Golden Dome project, as conceived, still suffers from a big flaw: scale. Even with thousands of interceptors in space, missiles will always be easier and cheaper to build on the ground, they said. So an adversary could always build more missiles than there would be interceptors to take them out.  ]]

[Category: Science & Tech]

As of 4/3/25 3:17pm. Last new 4/3/25 2:40pm.