Bahrain Reformation or Revolution

23 February, 2012 – by Jasim Husain – FIKRA Forum

In recent weeks, Bahrain’s Royal Court and mainstream opposition groups have exchanged communications regarding a way forward for Bahrain. Though a real dialogue has yet to commence, communications consisted of how a dialogue will proceed logistically.

It is widely believed that Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa stands behind the latest initiative. Unsurprisingly, he opted to include the Royal Court Minister Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa and other adversaries from the onset, a marked difference from the strategy used last year.

Political groups led by Al Wefaq contend that opponents of the Crown Prince within the royal family succeeded in torpedoing his six week mandate for negotiations with opposition leaders in February 2011. These original discussions commenced on February 19, 2011 for a six week period, but they were cut short on March 14th upon the arrival of troops from neighboring Saudi Arabia.

Opposition groups took advantage of the latest opportunity for dialogue by submitting their proposal for a political solution, as detailed in the Manama Document. The main demands center on the formation of a parliamentary government, ensuring popular input and requiring fair electoral districts that meet the universal practice of “one person, one vote.” Other demands call for ensuring equal opportunity to all citizens, showing no tolerance for discriminatory practices, and allowing for free media.

Significantly, the meetings occurred in the lead up to the first anniversary of the uprising on February 14. Some fear that Bahraini officials were trying to assuage the opposition in advance of the anniversary by publicizing the renewed talks. Conversely, others view this act as a testimony to the success of anti-regime youths forcing politicians back to the negotiating table for a variety of reasons.

Still, those familiar with the initiative point out that the Minister of the Royal Court demonstrated an unwillingness to commit himself to specifics, including an agenda and dates for future meetings. Lastly, some maintain that the latest move by the Royal Court was primarily to ease international pressures from the U.S., UK, and EU calling for the Bahraini government to engage with opposition groups. As someone familiar with behind the scenes moves, I can confirm that both sides, namely the authorities and the opposition groups, are under pressure from the West—particularly the U.S., UK, and EU—to find a compromise.

Off the streets

On a positive note, recent communications are indicative of the main opposition groups’ willingness to engage in negotiations. Opposition groups firmly believe that the majority of Bahrainis look for a political solution to address challenges facing the nation.

Nevertheless, the views of the opposition and regime forces are not uniform; there are elements on both sides that adamantly oppose a compromise. Some in the opposition camp continue to press for regime change, while pro-regime hardliners inside and outside the royal court remain suspicious of Shiite opposition groups, who make up a majority of government opponents. …more