Internal Dynamics and International Policy in The Syria Crisis

POMED Notes: The Syrian Crisis: Internal Dynamics and International Policy
6 February, 2012 – Project on Middle East Deveopment

On Monday, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) hosted a discussion concerning the Syrian Crisis in light of the recent failure of the draft resolution by U.N. Security Council (UNSC). The panel featured Senior Fellow for Regional Security at IISS Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy Dana Allen, and Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier Ben Barry. The discussion was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at IISS.

Emile Hokayem began the discussion stressing that the importance of diplomacy had decreased in the minds of the Syrian people due to the failure of the UNSC. Hokayem said that the West, Gulf States, and Turkey “did not have a back up plan” for the Russia/China veto; the watered-down version of the UNSC resolution supported by Turkish/Arab constituencies was expected to be enough for a Russian acceptance. Hokayem foresaw the creation of an international body, which he referred to as the “Friends of Syria Group”, as a way to preserve the Arab League initiative without limiting the initiative to solely Arab support.

In the short-term, Hokayem predicted that the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad, given the new window of opportunity created by the failure of the draft resolution, would intensify the crackdown to fragment the opposition further and solidify its position within the country. He said that as the civil war intensifies, the threat of spillover becomes imminent. Also, the burden of responsibility for intervention has shifted from the international community to Turkey and the Gulf States. Hokayem noted that the Assad regime now knows that “Russia has its back” and has an opportunity to sway some opposition figures into dialogue. Although dialogue will not be popular among “activists” and will not be able to “control the street” or stop the violence, it gives the regime a chance to change the narrative.” Additionally, Hokayem noted that representatives from Moscow are visiting Damascus to “deliver a message” to Assad to say that he must “give them something they can tell the international community,” such as cosmetic reforms (constitutional changes, elections, new parties.) Russia has “lost credibility on the street” and thus Hokayem was doubtful that the Russians could broker a deal. …more