Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

by Michael Koplovsky Advisor: CDR Jeffrey Fullerton, USN

Joint Military Operations Department, Naval War College
686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207

What if the U.S. military lost basing rights in Bahrain? Could the United States continue to achieve U.S. national security goals in the Persian Gulf and surrounding region — including success in the War on Terrorism and responding to a resurgent Iran — without the permanent presence of the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet Command, a U.S. Marine Corps amphibious unit and pre-positioned U.S. Air Force materiel in Bahrain? This paper argues that alternate basing and other force posture options can in combination adequately compensate for lost advantages in terms of operational factors space, time, and force. In fact, the paper argues that such options could better reconcile risks and costs as the military adopts base realignment and force re-posturing, enhancing U.S. flexibility, responsiveness, and effectiveness. The loss of Bahrain basing rights might precipitate the inevitable evolution toward a more diversified, technologically advanced and flexible force posture and projection that deemphasizes a robust permanent forward presence, as recommended by recent Pentagon reports. While this paper analyzes the loss of access to Bahrain, the conclusions could apply to the loss of basing privileges in countries throughout the region.
…read the entire report HERE