Analysis: Bahrain reform dialogue faces a rocky start

Analysis: Bahrain reform dialogue faces a rocky start
By Erika Solomon
MANAMA | Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:24am EDT

MANAMA (Reuters) – Some Sunni groups taking part in Bahrain’s national dialogue say the Shi’ite-led opposition is serving Iran. Most participants have yet to announce their stance, and the largest opposition bloc may not even take part.

With only a week to go until the talks begin, deep-seated divisions and mutual suspicions mean consensus will be tough to reach and any reforms that are agreed are unlikely to satisfy everyone.

The Sunni-ruled Gulf kingdom quashed weeks of Shi’ite-led pro-democracy protests in March and imposed martial law until June 1. King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa then called a national dialogue, insisting that all reforms were up for discussion.

But with 300 people invited to join the talks and hundreds of opposition activists languishing in jail, critics hold out little hope that any meaningful reconciliation can be achieved.

“The possibility of it ending positively are nearly zero,” said Shadi Hamid, from the Brookings Center in Doha.

Complicating matters on the tiny island is the presence of troops from fellow Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which is wary of unrest among its own Shi’ites, clustered in the oil-producing Eastern Province that is linked to Bahrain by a bridge.

Hundreds of mostly Shi’ite Bahrainis have been arrested for taking part in the protests, which the government says serve the political agenda of Shi’ite power Iran, just across Gulf waters.

With dozens facing military trial and the dismissal of up to 2,000 mostly Shi’ite workers and students, the leading Shi’ite opposition party, Wefaq, has warned that it might not be able to hold back protesters if the dialogue proves fruitless.

“The situation is boiling,” Wefaq spokesman Khalil al-Marzouq said. “If people lose hope that this dialogue will achieve anything serious to solve their problems, I don’t know how we will be able to keep things in check.” …more