Western Neoliberal Reductionism tries to Rationalise “Arab Spring” – Cost, Benefits? Really?

Costs of Arab Spring Outweigh Benefits, Says Bank
18 October, 2013 – Robert Joyce – tunisialive

The economic costs of the Arab uprisings may outweigh their benefits to countries like Tunisia, according a recently-released report from a major bank.

Collectively, the political upheaval in the Arab world that began in 2011 will have cost Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, Jordan, and Lebanon $800 billion between 2011-14, according to international bank HSBC.

The report, titled “A Bitter Legacy,” calculates the costs of the wave of uprisings which started in Tunisia in 2010.

GDP statistics for Tunisia from HSBC’s report October 2013

Using seven countries that the researchers, Elizabeth Martins and Simon Williams, argue were most affected by the upheaval, the report compares pre-2011 growth forecasts with post-2011 realities and predictions to put a dollar amount on what has been called the Arab Spring.

The report has a negative tone, suggesting that the economic costs of the post-2011 situation outweigh any positive gains in the region.

“Any gains also pale when set against the economic losses much of the region has suffered since the start of what is still called the Arab Spring,” the report, produced for the bank’s clients, states.

Dueling protests and ongoing talks have avoided the sort of violence seen in Egypt, but have made Tunisia appear unstable to investors and prevented post-revolution economic recovery from gaining momentum.

Gross domestic product growth has been unsteady since taking a dramatic hit during the 2011 revolution. Unemployment, a major complaint of Tunisians, has also increased.

Security failures, including the assassination of opposition politician Mohamed Brahmi and the attacks on military forces, exacerbate these concerns.

The report states that there is a low likelihood a coup will take place in Tunisia, but actually views this as weakening investor confidence in the country.

“In contrast to Egypt, the military and security services are less powerful and deep rooted, leaving no ready-made alternative to the post-revolutionary structures,” the report states.
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