No Plan B – US Commander Richard McDaniel Presents New Strategy for Bahrain

U.S. Navy Officer Presents New Strategy for Bahrain
26 June, 2013 – POMED

Commander Richard McDaniel, USN, Federal Executive Fellow at Brookings’ Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, published a report entitled “No ‘Plan B:’ U.S. Stretegic Access in the Middle East and the Question of Bahrain,” on how the U.S. should respond to the continued uprisings in Bahrain against the monarchy in order to maintain military access, “diversify the U.S. footprint,” and positively affect Bahrain’s progress towards better governance and human rights reform. McDaniel argues that maintaining the 5th fleet’s presence in Bahrain is in the U.S.’s and Bahrain’s strategic interest, and could grant the U.S. greater leverage in encouraging democratic reforms. The 5th Fleet has also helped the U.S. build strong political, economic, and cultural ties with Bahrain, and losing naval access to Bahrain would hinder the United States’ capacity to deter Iran, combat piracy in the Indian Ocean, and maintain freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf.

McDaniel characterized the opposition in Bahrain as a Shi’a uprising, but points out that only a small minority of Shi’a Bahrainis adhere to the same religious doctrine as Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and even fewer are ethnic Persians or carry political allegiance to Iran’s leadership (pp. 7-11). However, McDaniel contends that “many fear that the Bahraini youth will grow weary of slow reform and begin to radicalize…the longer it takes Bahrain to implement reforms the likelier it becomes.”

McDaniel blames the U.S.’s “close relationship with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain [as] the reason the State Department has only applied moderate pressure for reforms” in Bahrain. He also argues that “the United States should view democratic reforms, wherever they occur, as in its best interest (p. 9),” and that “the biggest threat to U.S. access is not democratic reform that leads to a constitutional monarchy, but a lack of reform that [results] in continued instability, unrest, and the empowerment of radical leadership (p. 11). ” To this end, he argues that the U.S. should develop a “Plan B” to move the 5th fleet in the event that Bahrain becomes too unstable. The alternatives, however, are more expensive, strain the U.S.’s relationship with Bahrain, reduce the U.S’s ability to respond quickly to a regional crisis, and hurt the U.S.’s ability to push for democratic reforms (pp. 23-27).

Regardless, McDaniel argues that “Bahrain is a major non-NATO ally, therefore the U.S. has an obligation to stand with it during challenging times while still encouraging democratic reform. Voluntarily removing the U.S. footprint from Bahrain would do little to improve the situation, potentially create a power vacuum, destabilize the region, and eliminate the moderating effect that U.S. influence has had on the Bahraini crisis…The U.S. should leverage elements of national power to promote positive change, understanding that it has a moral obligation to stand on principle and strongly encourage democratic reform (26).”
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