Will Israel Do It? Syria first?

Will Israel Do It?
By: Ibrahim al-Amin – 16 July, 2012 – Al Akhbar

Israel and its backers have been hinting at possible military intervention in Syria on the pretext of preventing the transfer of its chemical weapons stockpiles to the Lebanese resistance. Such a step would set the region ablaze. Iran and Hezbollah have let it be known to all concerned that they would not stand idly by.

Putting aside all theoretical commentary about what is happening in Syria and the region, it would seem that we face a very high risk of a major explosion in the coming weeks.

By explosion, we are talking about a confrontation that could erupt with Israel. This would be liable to reshuffle the cards in every country in the region, and extend the tension and bloodshed to many of them.

Yet it is the countries meddling in Syria who hold the key to such a crisis.

At the heart of the matter is the reason why “the West” opted to revive Kofi Annan’s mission despite having announced its failure, and that is the absence of an alternative. In other words, the inability of the armed Syrian opposition – with Arab, regional and Western backing – to create facts on the ground that could decisively tip the balance of power.

Stalemates and Setbacks

In addition to the farcical spectacle of the opposition meetings held in Cairo, Western intelligence circles began speaking of a dangerous disintegration within the ranks of the opposition.
Robert Mood, the head of the UN inspectors in Syria, paid a brief visit to Lebanon a few days ago. He spent a quiet evening with friends in Beirut, who quizzed him about what was really happening and his assessment of the situation.

Mood spoke of how the regime exaggerates the extent to which the violence is the work of Islamists. But he said peaceful popular protests have virtually ceased, and armed opposition is spreading, albeit highly chaotically, and without the resources to make serious changes on the ground likely.

Mood also said that the regime remains intact and in control of large parts of the country, while the armed groups control some rural areas, and that at the current rate, President Bashar al-Assad and his army could sustain the confrontation for years, barring a surprise development.

Sources say that prior to Mood’s visit, Turkish envoys were dispatched to some of the capitals that support Syria, and also to Beirut. They sought to hold discussions on how a solution could be devised, “if only hypothetically,” based on Assad leaving office, but were rebuffed.

When Turkey and some European governments got the impression that Russia was prepared to discuss the idea, “if only hypothetically,” Damascus and Tehran swiftly informed the Russian leadership of their categorical opposition on principle, the Iranians warning it was a trap to be avoided.

This was subsequently reaffirmed in “an official message to the West that if there is any solution based on the idea of Assad’s departure, there will be nobody around the table capable of discussing it”.

Meanwhile, signs surfaced of serious trouble in the condition, both political and military, of the Syrian opposition. In addition to the farcical spectacle of the opposition meetings held in Cairo, Western intelligence circles began speaking of a dangerous disintegration within the ranks of the opposition. …more