Bahrain Regime amateurish “terrorist antics” ridiculous when “playing for all the marbles”

MOI Seizes largest “terrorist weapons” cache in Bahrain history

The Downside of Bahrain’s Counter-Terrorism Prowess
Religon and Politics in Bahrain – 4 July, 2012

By now readers will have heard of the “bomb plot” uncovered by the Interior Ministry (with dramatic video) and now being investigated with the help of a forensic team from the British Metropolitan Police. (It seems that Yates’ advisory role with the Interior Ministry did not end as scheduled in April after all.) Three individuals have already been named as suspects, and anonymous “senior political officials” have told the BBC that the devices are so sophisticated that they “could not have been put together without help from outside the country”–namely from Hizballah, with whom the three suspects are purported to have trained.

In fact, however, as one contributor to the Gulf2K mailing list notes,

The “bombs…with hundreds of iron balls” sound like a standard AP device, in which (steel) ball-bearings are laid over the explosive charge to function as shrapnel. The set up has been used in suicide vests, in improvised hand-grenades, and in “claymore” type devices, whether improvised or manufactured. Such a system in itself is not indicative of any particular geographic or organisational origin.

One will observe further that the original report in the Gulf Daily News of “five tonnes of explosive materials” has since been downgraded (in the BBC story linked above) to “over 100kg,” a difference of merely 1.5 orders of magnitude (~45 times). So more or less the same.

Yet, media exaggerations aside, the more general difficulty in knowing what to make of Bahrain’s newest foiled terrorist plot is that the country may well be the historical origin behind Aesop’s “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.” (Which would vindicate Sunni claims of being the original inhabitants of the island!) When every activity of the unregistered opposition or trip to Lebanon by someone linked to Shi’a groups–to say nothing of the February uprising–is a new terrorist scheme, who can blame observers for being skeptical when the Interior Ministry insists, “No, srsly, this time it’s a real plot we even have a video LOL!!1”

On the other hand, could one really be surprised if after 18 months of political stalemate and little hope for a breakthrough individuals would begin to turn to more radical alternatives in order to get the state’s attention? Indeed, already in April 2011 Hussein Ibish wrote a Foreign Policy article asking, “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?” Since then, few in Bahrain have escaped involvement in the turmoil either directly or indirectly via family and friends. At the same time, Bahrain’s political factions have undergone marked polarization, with many in the opposition oriented not only against the government, but also against the state’s Sunni and Western supporters. On the other hand, Sunni movements continue to decry the Iranian-backed opposition as well as Western (i.e., British and especially U.S.) meddling, and this has been actively encouraged by none other than ranking government officials such as Defense Minister Khalifa bin Ahmad. …more