Will Israel Do It?
By: Ibrahim al-Amin – 16 July, 2012 – Al Akhbar

Israel and its backers have been hinting at possible military intervention in Syria on the pretext of preventing the transfer of its chemical weapons stockpiles to the Lebanese resistance. Such a step would set the region ablaze. Iran and Hezbollah have let it be known to all concerned that they would not stand idly by.

Putting aside all theoretical commentary about what is happening in Syria and the region, it would seem that we face a very high risk of a major explosion in the coming weeks.

By explosion, we are talking about a confrontation that could erupt with Israel. This would be liable to reshuffle the cards in every country in the region, and extend the tension and bloodshed to many of them.

Yet it is the countries meddling in Syria who hold the key to such a crisis.

At the heart of the matter is the reason why “the West” opted to revive Kofi Annan’s mission despite having announced its failure, and that is the absence of an alternative. In other words, the inability of the armed Syrian opposition – with Arab, regional and Western backing – to create facts on the ground that could decisively tip the balance of power.

Stalemates and Setbacks

In addition to the farcical spectacle of the opposition meetings held in Cairo, Western intelligence circles began speaking of a dangerous disintegration within the ranks of the opposition.
Robert Mood, the head of the UN inspectors in Syria, paid a brief visit to Lebanon a few days ago. He spent a quiet evening with friends in Beirut, who quizzed him about what was really happening and his assessment of the situation.

Mood spoke of how the regime exaggerates the extent to which the violence is the work of Islamists. But he said peaceful popular protests have virtually ceased, and armed opposition is spreading, albeit highly chaotically, and without the resources to make serious changes on the ground likely.

Mood also said that the regime remains intact and in control of large parts of the country, while the armed groups control some rural areas, and that at the current rate, President Bashar al-Assad and his army could sustain the confrontation for years, barring a surprise development.

Sources say that prior to Mood’s visit, Turkish envoys were dispatched to some of the capitals that support Syria, and also to Beirut. They sought to hold discussions on how a solution could be devised, “if only hypothetically,” based on Assad leaving office, but were rebuffed.

When Turkey and some European governments got the impression that Russia was prepared to discuss the idea, “if only hypothetically,” Damascus and Tehran swiftly informed the Russian leadership of their categorical opposition on principle, the Iranians warning it was a trap to be avoided.

This was subsequently reaffirmed in “an official message to the West that if there is any solution based on the idea of Assad’s departure, there will be nobody around the table capable of discussing it”.

Meanwhile, signs surfaced of serious trouble in the condition, both political and military, of the Syrian opposition. In addition to the farcical spectacle of the opposition meetings held in Cairo, Western intelligence circles began speaking of a dangerous disintegration within the ranks of the opposition. …more

US warship fires on vessel in Gulf
16 July, 2012 – Al Akhbar

A US navy ship fired on a boat off the United Arab Emirates on Monday in the southern Gulf where tension has been rising after it ignored warnings, the navy said.

It gave no details on the outcome of the incident, which was being investigated, but US media reports said one person was killed and three were wounded.

“An embarked security team aboard a US navy vessel fired upon a small motor vessel after it disregarded warnings and rapidly approached the US ship near Jebel Ali,” an Emirati port city, the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet said in a statement.

“The USNS Rappahannock used a series of non-lethal, preplanned responses to warn the vessel before resorting to lethal force,” it said.

“The US crew repeatedly attempted to warn the vessel’s operators to turn away from their deliberate approach. When those efforts failed to deter the approaching vessel, the security team on the Rappahannock fired rounds from a .50-calibre machine gun.”

The US navy has been building up its forces in the oil-rich region since tensions spiked with Iran in December over its nuclear program, with Tehran threatening to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the southern Gulf.

It has deployed two aircraft carriers to the region – the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Enterprise – and doubled its minesweeper fleet in the area from four to eight ships on June 23.

Tehran has said the deployment is deliberately provocative and aims to force the Islamic Republic to abandon its disputed nuclear program.

Iran has threatened to mine the narrow Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes. …source

Clinton to Israel: Arab Spring an opportunity
July 17, 2012 – Reuters – The Daily Star

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, arriving in Jerusalem from Egypt, told a wary Israel Monday to treat the Arab Spring as an opportunity as well as a source of uncertainty convulsing the Middle East.

It was Clinton’s first visit to the Jewish state since U.S.-brokered peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis broke down in 2010 over Israel’s refusal to halt the building of settlements on land where Palestinians hope to found a state.

Since then, popular revolts across the Arab world have swept away the rulers of Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Israel’s biggest neighbor Egypt, and unleashed a violent conflict in Syria.

The Jewish state is particularly worried about the rise of Islamists in place of ousted Arab autocrats, especially Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, who had guaranteed his country’s 1979 treaty with Israel, the first between Israel and an Arab country.

Clinton met Israeli leaders in occupied Jerusalem, fresh from a visit to Egypt where she became the most senior U.S. official to meet newly elected President Mohammad Mursi, from the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Mursi told her Egypt would abide by its treaties.

At Clinton’s side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Egypt “has been an anchor of peace and maintaining the peace treaty between us, I think, is something that is uppermost in both our minds.”

Clinton said before her talks with Netanyahu: “We are living in a time of unprecedented change with a lot of challenges for us both, and we will continue to consult closely, as we have on an almost daily basis, between our two governments, to chart the best way forward for peace and stability for Israel, the United States, the region and the world.”

Earlier she told President Shimon Peres that “it is in moments like these that friends like us have to think together, act together. We are called to be smart, creative and courageous.”

“It is a time of uncertainty but also of opportunity. It is a chance to advance our shared goal of security, stability, peace and democracy along with prosperity for the millions of people in this region who have yet to see a better future,” Clinton said after meeting Peres.

…more

Turning point as war comes to Damascus
17 July, 2012 – The Daily Star

DAMASCUS/MOSCOW: Syria’s military deployed armored vehicles near central Damascus Monday as troops battled rebels around the capital in what activists said could be a turning point in the 16-month uprising.

Russia, meanwhile, slammed as “blackmail” Western pressure to push for a U.N. Security Council resolution against Syria’s regime and said it would be “unrealistic” for its ally President Bashar Assad to quit.

“Al-Midan and Tadamon are out of the army’s control,” said Ahmad al-Khatib, spokesman for the Free Syrian Army’s military council in Damascus.

“The army has no presence inside either of these neighborhoods any more, though they are shelling from the outside, and clashes on the edges of the neighborhoods continue.”

As battles raged around Damascus for a second straight day, troops deployed armored vehicles near the historic neighborhood of Al-Midan.

“When there is fighting in the capital for several hours, even days, and troops are unable to control the situation, that proves the regime’s weakness,” said Rami Abdul-Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

An activist on the ground, identifying himself as Abu Musab, said the army was trying to overrun Al-Midan and called the fighting a “turning point” in the revolt against Assad’s regime.

Activists said that the army and FSA rebels had also been locked in fierce clashes since Sunday in the southern Damascus neighborhood of Tadamon, Kfar Sousa in the west and Jobar in the east.

They said the clashes were the heaviest in the capital since the March 2011 start of the uprising.

The authorities vowed Monday they would not surrender the capital. “You will never get Damascus,” read the headline in Al-Watan newspaper, which is close to the regime.

“Security forces, backed by the army, have for the past 48 hours been attacking the terrorist groups as they try to pull back to districts on the outskirts,” the paper said.

A resident of nearby Jaramana said the area was like a “war zone.”

Activists said residents were fleeing Tadamon, with many seeking shelter in the nearby Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp, as the opposition Syrian National Council accused the regime of transforming Damascus into “battlefields.”

Rebel-held districts of the central city of Homs, which has been under siege for months, were bombarded Monday, according to the Observatory. It said a total of at least 67 people were killed in violence across the country – 32 civilians, 21 soldiers and 14 rebel fighters. The latest violence comes as diplomatic pressure builds up ahead of a key Security Council vote Friday to decide whether the 300-strong U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria would be renewed.

The unarmed observers are tasked with overseeing implementation of a six-point peace plan brokered by U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan which has been flouted daily since mid-April when it was to have gone into effect.

Speaking ahead of talks with Annan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of trying to “blackmail” Moscow to get its backing for possible sanctions against Syria.

“To our great regret, we are witnessing elements of blackmail,” said Lavrov, adding that it was “unrealistic” for Moscow to back calls for Assad to step down as the population supports him.
…more

Russia blocks UN Council statement on Syria
16 July, 2012 – Agence France Presse – The Dialy Star

UNITED NATIONS: Russia on Monday blocked a proposed UN Security Council statement on mass killings in the Syrian village of Treimsa, diplomats said amid worsening deadlock over international action on the conflict.

Russian envoys opposed the statement saying it was not clear what had happened, council diplomats told AFP on condition of anonymity.

A draft statement had been proposed saying that the attack on the village on Thursday was a Syrian government “violation” of its commitments to UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan not to use heavy weapons. But Russia put a hold on its release.

Dozens of people were killed in Treimsa by President Bashar al-Assad’s troops and pro-government militias, according to Syrian activists. The government has denied involvement.

Russia has called for Major General Robert Mood, the head of the UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) to brief the council on the killings.

UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said UNSMIS was still trying to check the facts of what happened in Treimsa, but added that it was “quite apparent that something terrible happened there and that heavy weaponry was used.”

Western diplomats said they would now probably stop pressing for the statement so the 15-nation council can concentrate on negotiating a formal resolution on the future of the UN mission in Syria which has to be agreed by Friday.

Britain, France, United States, Germany and Portugal want a resolution that includes the threat of sanctions if Assad does not halt the use of heavy weapons. Russia rejects the threat of sanctions.

…more

Russia Says West Using “Blackmail” over Syria
By AJ Correspondents – 16 July, 2012 – IPS

DOHA, Qatar, Jul 16 2012 (Al Jazeera) – Russia has said it would block moves at the U.N. Security Council to extend a U.N. monitoring mission in Syria if Western powers did not stop resorting to “blackmail” by threatening sanctions against Damascus.

Special Envoy for Syria Kofi Annan holds a press conference on Jul. 11. Credit: UN Photo/Jean-Marc Ferré

Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, staked out a tough position on Monday before talks in Moscow with U.N. envoy Kofi Annan, dismissing international pressure on Russia and China to stop propping up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

His comments are likely to dim Western diplomats’ hopes that Moscow is trying to find a face-saving way to drop its support for Assad and accept that he should have no role in a transition.

“To our great regret, we are seeing elements of blackmail,” Lavrov told a news conference before Annan started a two-day visit that will include talks on Tuesday with President Vladimir Putin. “This is a counter-productive and a dangerous approach.”

Meanwhile, Morocco has asked Syria’s ambassador to Rabat to leave the country, the foreign ministry said on Monday.

The Syrian government in a tit-for-tat response declared the Moroccan envoy to Damascus as persona non grata and asked him to leave.

Violence in capital

There has been no let up in violence in Syria with parts of the capital, Damascus, under fire for a second day, activists have said, with government forces blocking roads in and out of the city.

“Mortar shelling resumed in the early morning,” the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), a grass roots network of activists, said on Monday.

Reuters news agency reports that the crackle of small arms fire echoes through the streets of Damascus.

Syrian troops backed by armoured vehicles were said to have advanced through the city centre, driving out rebels who had secured a foothold within striking distance of major state installations.

The military offensive on Monday reportedly continued to batter several neighbourhoods in the capital, including Midan, Tadamon – where snipers are reported to be positioned on rooftops – Kfar Souseh, Nahr Aisha and Sidi Qadad.

The LCC added that government troops and rebel fighters of the Free Syrian Army also clashed in the western Damascus district of Kfar Souseh.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported “dawn battles on the road south of Kfar Souseh, between rebel fighters and soldiers who were in a convoy passing through the area”. …more

Between reform and revolution: Sheikh Qassim, the Bahraini Shi’a, and Iran
16 July, 2012 – by .@Alfoneh of .@AEI – Dr. @saqeralkhalifa

The political stability of the small island state of Bahrain—home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet—matters to the United States. And Sheikh Qassim, who simultaneously leads the Bahraini Shi’a majority’s just struggle for a more democratic society and acts as an agent of the Islamic Republic of Iran, matters to the future of Bahrain.

A survey of the history of Shi’a activism in Bahrain, including Sheikh Qassim’s political life, shows two tendencies: reform and revolution. Regardless of Sheikh Qassim’s dual roles and the Shi’a protest movement’s periodic ties to the regime in Tehran, the United States should do its utmost to reconcile the rulers and the ruled in Bahrain by defending the civil rights of the Bahraini Shi’a. This action would not only conform to the United States’ principle of promoting democracy and human rights abroad, but also help stabilize Bahrain and the broader Persian Gulf region. It would also undermine the ability of the regime in Tehran to continue to exploit the sectarian conflict in Bahrain in a way that broadens its sphere of influence and foments anti-Americanism.

Key points in this Outlook:

Bahrain’s history is fraught with Shi’a marginalization, which, as the nation’s ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran grow stronger, has fomented a radical strain in the nation’s politics.

Political and clerical leader Sheikh Qassim’s transition from moderate reformist to zealous revolutionary serves as a broader warning to the United States of the shifting tides in Bahrain.

To ensure stability in the Persian Gulf, which is critical for oil transportation, the United States must work with the current government in Bahrain to encourage gradual reforms and civil rights for the Shi’a majority.

Every Friday, the elderly Ayatollah Isa Ahmad Qassim al-Dirazi al-Bahrani, more commonly known as Sheikh Qassim, climbs the stairs to the pulpit at the Imam al-Sadiq mosque in Diraz, Bahrain, to deliver his sermon. Wearing a white turban and cloak matching his white beard and reading his handwritten sermon on ethics aloud in a monotonous voice, the spectacled sheikh resembles the scholarly imam after whom the mosque is named rather than a revolutionary leader. However, every week, hundreds of Bahraini Shi’a line up to pray behind Sheikh Qassim in Diraz, and thousands find political inspiration in his sermons, which they follow on the Internet or radio and television broadcasts sponsored by the regime in Tehran and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Sheikh Qassim’s persistent demand for political reforms and his call for active resistance to the Sunni ruling elites of Bahrain have made him the preeminent Shi’a leader in Bahrain.

The Sunni ruling elites of Bahrain, however, see Sheikh Qassim not as a reformer but as a zealot revolutionary serving the Islamic Republic of Iran. They accuse him of trying to overthrow rather than reform the political order in Bahrain. Instead of bridging the gap between the Shi’a and Sunni, they claim, Sheikh Qassim widens the sectarian divide in society.

There is some truth to both perceptions of Sheikh Qassim. The history of the struggle of the Bahraini Shi’a, with which Sheikh Qassim’s political life is intertwined, illustrates his dual role. Sheikh Qassim expresses the just grievances of the Shi’a protest movement and demands civil rights for the Shi’a majority.[1] but increasingly he—and the Shi’a protest movement— act like revolutionaries rather than reformists. There is also unquestionably a relationship between Sheikh Qassim and the regime in Tehran, which he denies, but whose propaganda machinery he skillfully employs to spread his message.

Early Youth in Diraz

Tracing Sheikh Qassim’s early influences helps us understand his current beliefs and political alliances. According to a short biographic note on Sheikh Qassim released by Al-Wasat, he was born in the village of Diraz, west of the capital (Manama) along Bahrain’s northern coastline, around 1940.[2] However, the exact year of his birth is disputed.[3] His father, Ahmad al-Bahrani,[4] was a modest fisherman and did not belong to the prominent families in the village.[5] Sheikh Qassim was born into a rural Arab Shi’a family[6] who, as their family name (Bahrani) suggests, consider themselves the original inhabitants of the country.[7] This identity distinguishes them from the Khalifa ruling family, whom the Baharna consider to be foreign invaders,[8] but also from Ajam, or ethnically Iranian and Persian-speaking Shi’a of Bahrain. …more

Bahraini Revolutionaries Praise Iran’s Supreme Leader for Supportive Positions

16 July, 2012 – FARS

TEHRAN (FNA)- A group of Bahraini revolutionaries in a statement lauded the brave and historical positions taken by Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei in support of the fair and legitimate demands of the Bahraini nation.

“Imam Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Revolution and the religious leader of the world Muslims, in a brave and historic move has repeatedly stood beside the Bahraini nation and has defended their fair and legitimate demands,” the statement by a group named February 14 Revolution’s Companions Coalition said on Monday.

The Coalition praised Ayatollah Khamenei’s positions, and expressed the hope that his revolutionary positions will heal the wounds of the martyrs’ families, the injured people, the detainees and others harmed due to their protests against the al-Khalifa regime.

Anti-government protesters have been holding peaceful demonstrations across Bahrain since mid-February 2011, calling for an end to the Al Khalifa dynasty’s over-40-year rule.

Violence against the defenseless people escalated after a Saudi-led conglomerate of police, security and military forces from the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) member states – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar – were dispatched to the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom on March 13, 2011, to help Manama crack down on peaceful protestors.

So far, more than 69 people have been killed, hundreds have gone missing and thousands of others have been injured.

Police clampdown on protesters continues daily. Authorities have tried to stop organized protests by opposition parties over the past month by refusing to license them and using tear gas on those who turn up. …more