The implausibility of an Iranian plot
Who is really behind it?
By Esam Al-Amin – opEdNews.com

On October 11, Attorney General Eric Holder, flanked by the FBI Director and the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, accused the government of Iran, specifically the elite Quds battalion of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), of plotting to assassinate the ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the U.S, Adel Al-Jubeir.

So what do we know about this alleged conspiracy? And what are the facts pertinent to this explosive charge?

1) The alleged conspirator, Mansour Arbabsiar, is a 56 year old naturalized American of Iranian descent. He has been living in several Texas communities since the late 1970s when he arrived to the U.S. as a student. By all accounts, Arbabsiar led a disorderly life marked by constant failure, whether as a student, husband, father, or businessman.

For over two decades the alleged “mastermind” left behind a trail of successive failed businesses, including a used car lot, a restaurant, a convenience store, and a finance company. One of his friends told the Washington Post that he is “a goofy guy who always had a smile on his face.”

Arbabsiar was neither an ideologue nor religious. His nickname among his close friends was “Jack” because of his affinity for Jack Daniel’s whiskey. Last year, he was arrested for felony possession of a narcotic. According to public documents, his former wife accused him of spousal abuse and filed a protective order against him in 1991.

2) The complaint (so far it is not even an indictment by a grand jury) charges that Arbabsiar allegedly conspired with a high official of the Quds battalion of the IRGC. According to the complaint he was recruited by this official – who is also supposedly his cousin – when he visited Iran earlier this year.

There is plenty of evidence that the Quds Force has been involved in many militant anti-Western operations in Iraq. It has also been publicly supporting the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance organizations in their struggle with Israel. These activities have earned it the label of “supporter of terrorism” by most Western nations, including the U.S.

But according to Robert Baer, a 21-year veteran CIA operative and analyst, the Quds Force is one of the most professional and disciplined (though deadly) organizations in the Middle East. As reported by CNN, the Quds Force “has never been publicly linked to an assassination plot or an attack on U.S. soil.”

Baer confirmed this fact when he said that “in its 30-year history of attacking the West, the Quds Force went out of its way never to be caught with a smoking gun in hand. It always used well-vetted proxies, invariably Muslim believers devoted to Khomeini’s revolution.”

He then questioned whether the plot was genuine by asking, “Why didn’t the Iranians use tried and tested Hizbullah networks and keep Iranian nationals, much less unknown Mexican narcos, out of it?”

3) We know from the complaint that the U.S government was actually directing the plot (target, location, method of attack, setting the price of the assassination, bank account information, etc.) Pete Williams, NBC’s DOJ correspondent, said that the plot was in fact “a sting operation” directed by the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and the FBI. A recent report published by New York University Law School showed that in the past decade federal agencies have relied heavily on sting operations, not only in drug busts, but also most significantly in dozens of national security cases “that were planned, financed and executed by the FBI.”

4) According to the official story, we are to believe that, although the price set for the Saudi Ambassador’s assassination by a member of a Mexican drug cartel (who was actually a DEA informant) was $1.5 million, the Iranian handlers expected the assassin to carry it out by advancing him only $100,000 (less than 7 percent of the total amount.)

Moreover, as Baer argued in Time magazine, in three decades of external operations in many countries, the IRGC fingerprints or money transfers were never traced back to Iran, but that Iran has always “enjoyed plausible deniability.” Baer further told CNN that, “it would be completely uncharacteristic for Iran to be caught red-handed.”

Therefore, such sloppy behavior through traceable money transfers and phone intercepts is simply not credible. It appears to be a deliberate attempt to leave behind as many clues as possible to pin this alleged egregious act on Iran.

5) Another hole in this puzzle concerns the possible motive Iran could have by sponsoring such a provocative act. Strategically, Iran has never been stronger in the region. It has been the greatest beneficiary of the U.S. debacle in Iraq and its difficulty in Afghanistan. Furthermore, despite the successive international sanctions imposed on Iran, its nuclear and other military programs have been progressing at an increasingly steady pace, while asserting a growing and dominant role in the region.

Hillary Mann Leverett, an adviser on Iran in former President George W. Bush’s administration, told CNN that this act made no sense, and contradicted Iran’s national security strategy. She stated, “There’s no benefit; there’s no payoff in them pursuing this kind of hit against Adel Al-Jubeir. And it runs contrary to their entire national security strategy.”

If Iran wanted to punish Saudi Arabia it had a plenty of targets in the region, including in Saudi Arabia itself, Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Persian Gulf region in general. If it wanted to target a diplomat, the worst choice would be on U.S. soil where such an act would be easily uncovered and would not go unpunished. It is not clear why Iran would even target a small functionary of the Saudi diplomatic core. Al-Jubeir is neither royalty nor a significant player in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy.
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Daddy’s gone a Shoppin

Bahrain security thug
keys to the city
battering ram in one hand
pry bar for his brother

Village house left unprotected
who can protect against
the gas, the gun, bomb or baton

Crashes the front door in
like a mall or Marks and Spencer
victims left with nothing at all

Comprehensive report on all the Shi’i mosques, ma’tams, and shrines destroyed since February HERE (Arabic – Excellent Photo Documentation

[cb editor: rethinking it – wondering if 44 Humvees and 50 Bunker Busters will help New Revolutionary Government of Bahrain counter another Saudi Invasion? naahh… maybe Obama needs a mental check up, logic and reason seem to evade him, this certainly helps explain why he continues to take from the nations poorest in order to protect the wealthy. Orwell is rolling in his grave. ]

US arms won’t be used on Bahrain protesters: official
(AFP) –14 October, 2011

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration said Friday that a proposed arms sale to Bahrain is designed only for the Gulf kingdom’s “external defense,” seeking to soothe concerns the weapons would be used on protesters.

In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Republican Senator Marco Rubio echoed other lawmakers’ concerns in urging the administration to delay the sale of any items in the $53 million weapons package that could be used against protesters in Bahrain.

But State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland insisted the weapons sale “is designed to support the Bahraini military in its external defense function, specifically in hardening the country against potential attack or nefarious activity by countries like Iran.”

“And we do have an interest in Bahrain being able to be strong militarily vis-a-vis the regional challenges that they face,” Nuland added.

She also stressed that Washington considers human rights concerns before seeking arms sales.

The senator’s letter came as pressure mounted in Congress against the proposed sale after Bahraini security forces in mid-March crushed a month-long protest that authorities say left 24 people dead, including four policemen.

The opposition puts the death toll at 31.

US lawmakers expressed dismay in January when it came to light that tear gas used against Egyptian demonstrators against deposed president Hosni Mubarak was found to be “Made in America.”

Since then, some have sought tighter restrictions on weapons and non-lethal equipment provided to Middle Eastern governments that could be used against protesters in the “Arab Spring” pro-democracy movement roiling the Middle East and North Africa.

Bahrain, located strategically in the Gulf opposite Iran, houses the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet.
…source

Bassiouni’s Royal report on Bahrain
Friday, October 14, 2011 – Angry Arab News

HEAR Bassiouni Interview HERE

Angry Arab chief Bahrain correspondent: “This is a very interesting interview by Cherief Bassiouni, head of the Bahrain “Independent” Commission of Inquiry. Bassiouni had stated that he would stop giving interviews before the report is submitted but I guess it was difficult for him to stay out of the limelight. What is disturbing about the interview is that it made clear – though we all knew this already – that the commission is operating under the premise that the King is innocent. Of course there is a possibility that the King indeed had nothing to do with what happened (which of course is another disaster all together because that means that no one is in control of the country) but why did the so called independent commission begin on this presumption? Bassiouni goes as far to say that the King is a reformer. How does he know this? Does he have a deep understanding of the problems that Bahrain faces and its history? Does he know the inner working of the royal family and what happens between closed doors? What worries me more though is the accusations that he levels against the doctors and the fact that he states that some of them seized the hospital. I have already explained to you in my previous email on Dr. Al Ekri about what happened in the hospital. What Bassiouni is saying is absolutely ridiculous. Another problem is that he seems to take as fact that the protestor given the death penalty did indeed run over and kill a police officer. The only evidence provided was a you tube video. This protestor may have killed the police officer (I do not know what happened) but how will we know if he was given a sham trial?

Since Bassiouni decided to reveal the results of the commission before the report is submitted, I can sum up the report for you: The government made mistakes. The protestors made mistakes. No high level government officials were responsible for the mistakes. Nothing was systemic.” …source

Bahrain forces attack, arrest protesters
Oct 14th, 2011 – Bahrain – By shiapost

A female protester has been injured and several others have been arrested as regime forces in Bahrain continue to attack peaceful demonstrators. The protesters were chanting anti-regime slogans on Friday when they were targeted with tear gas and sound grenades.

The violence left one woman seriously wounded in the town of Nuwaidrat where regime forces engaged in heavy clashes with anti-government protesters. Regime forces have also attacked female protesters in the village of Karzakan.

Several demonstrators were arrested after the Saudi-backed forces attempted to disperse protests in towns and villages around the capital, Manama. Tens of thousands of demonstrators staged a rally in the eastern village of Buri, demanding an independent judiciary system.

The mass rally, called by Bahrain’s main political bloc al-Wefaq, came despite stepped up security measures in the Persian Gulf Kingdom. Al-Wefaq has been organizing weekly rallies every week demanding political and social reforms in the tiny Persian Gulf sheikhdom.

Scores of people have been killed and hundreds more have been arrested in the brutal crackdown of Saudi-backed Bahraini regime forces on peaceful protesters since anti-government protests began in the Persian Gulf kingdom in mid-February. …source

[cb editor: It is truly exciting to see Senators and Congress-people climb onboard to stop the arms deal to Bahrain. However,it seems the fabricated threat to Saudi Arabia via Obama’s “Assassination Plot”, coupled with a righteous cause, suspending Arms sales to Bahrain, provides a convenient misdirection away from the Billions in US weapons sales underway to Saudi Arabia. Is it a real “break through” or simply a means to preoccupy a growing awareness of sleazy and greedy US arms dealing with the tyrants by US war profiteers in the Middle East

After all wasn’t it the Saudis that did the bulk of the murderous dirty work in March on behalf of the al Khalifas? Could one imagine that the real plot here is to misdirect attention and energies away from the Saudi weapons sales to make sure the precede unimpeded? And what are we really talking about here, some Humvees, Tanks and other hardware that the Saudis would eagerly, hell already have, deployed on Bahraini soil. Just leave the keys under the seat King Abdullah, thank you very much. Another angle we should all ponder I suppose. ]

UK tightens arms export controls after Arab Spring
By Adrian Croft – LONDON – Thu Oct 13, 2011 – Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain will tighten its arms export rules so it can swiftly halt sales of weapons, ammunition and tear gas to countries where there has been a sharp deterioration in security, the government said on Thursday.

The move is a response to criticism during the Arab Spring uprisings that Britain had recently approved the export of crowd control equipment that could have been used against demonstrators in countries such as Libya and Bahrain.

Prime Minister David Cameron faced censure for a trip in February to the Gulf on which he was joined by executives from defence companies and other businesses.

“We will introduce a new mechanism to allow ministers to respond more rapidly and decisively to the outbreak of conflict or to unpredictable events like the Arab Spring, by suspending licensing,” Foreign Secretary William Hague told parliament.

Britain said in February it was revoking more than 50 arms export licenses — including tear gas and ammunition licenses — for Bahrain and Libya whose security forces were at that time cracking down on protests, killing and wounding demonstrators.

Some arms export licenses for Egypt and Tunisia were also revoked.

A parliamentary committee said in April that both the 17-month-old coalition government and its Labour predecessor “misjudged the risk that arms approved for export to certain authoritarian countries in North Africa and the Middle East might be used for internal repression.”

The committee’s report highlighted a potential conflict of interest between the coalition government’s goal of boosting British manufactured exports, including weapon sales, and its commitment to uphold human rights.

Hague said in July that a review had concluded there was “no evidence of any misuse of controlled military goods exported from the United Kingdom” during the Arab Spring, but that more work was needed on how Britain’s arms control system operated.

Hague said on Thursday the government planned to introduce a new system which would allow “immediate licensing suspension to countries experiencing a sharp deterioration in security or stability.”

“Applications in the pipeline would be stopped and no further licenses issued, pending ministerial or departmental review,” he said.

Respect for human rights was already one of the mandatory criteria for approving arms export licenses, he said.

However, under the proposed new system, the Foreign Office would provide more information on the human rights situation in a country and ministerial oversight of licence applications would be increased, Hague said. …source

Iraqi Says He Made Up Tale of Biological Weapons Before War
By JAMES RISEN – Published: February 15, 2011

WASHINGTON — The Iraqi defector whose claims that Saddam Hussein’s government had biological weapons became part of the Bush administration’s justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq has admitted that he fabricated his story.

The defector, Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, who was code-named “Curveball” by the Central Intelligence Agency and German intelligence officials, told the British newspaper The Guardian on Tuesday that he had concocted his tale that Iraq was hiding mobile bioweapons laboratories. He did so, he said, in hopes that his lies would lead to the eventual overthrow of the Iraqi ruler.

“I had the chance to fabricate something to topple the regime,” Mr. Janabi told the newspaper. “I and my sons are proud of that, and we are proud that we were the reason to give Iraq the margin of democracy.”

Mr. Janabi, who lives in Germany, has given several interviews in the past, but until now has always denied that he had lied to his intelligence handlers before the war in Iraq, even though his information had long been discredited.

The strange case of “Curveball” has become one of the most infamous episodes in the Bush administration’s case for war. Mr. Janabi’s claim about the mobile laboratories was featured prominently in Secretary of State Colin L. Powell’s address to the United Nations in February 2003, when he laid out the administration’s case that Mr. Hussein was hiding weapons of mass destruction.

The United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, and eventually determined that Iraq did not have any such weapons. It later became clear that the Bush administration had relied heavily on bogus information from unreliable exiles like Mr. Janabi.

Even before the invasion, there was strong evidence that Mr. Janabi was an unreliable source, evidence which critics now say the Bush White House and the C.I.A.’s top leadership ignored.

Mr. Janabi, who defected to Germany in the 1990s, met repeatedly with German intelligence officials beginning in 2000. They refused to allow C.I.A. officials to meet directly with him, instead providing the Americans only with reports of what he had said.

Eventually, though, the Germans grew doubtful of their informer and passed on their suspicions to American intelligence officials.
…more