Crooked Bough News Round-up

— Sea ice alert

 

at 11/5/24 3:13am

[ click on images to enlarge ]Arctic sea ice extent was very low during the period from October 14 to November 7, 2024. It was lower only on some days during this period in 2016, 2019 and 2020, as illustrated by the above image. The recent slow growth of Arctic sea ice extent is remarkable. When slow growth occurred in 2016 and in 2019, El Niño conditions were prominent. Higher than usual temperatures during El Niño years typically slow down Arctic sea ice extent growth at this time of year. By contrast, La Niña conditions were prominent since October 2024. It is remarkable for slow growth to occur during La Niña conditions in 2024.The image below highlights Antarctic sea ice extent during the months September and October, showing NSIDC data from 2010 through November 2, 2024. [ from earlier post ]As illustrated by the above image, Antarctic sea ice extent in September and October 2023 & 2024 was much lower than in previous years, a huge difference that occurred during a period when little or no sunlight was reaching Antarctic sea ice.Global sea ice typically reaches its annual maximum extent around this time of year, as Arctic sea ice expands in extent.On November 3, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.15 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below the 2023 extent at this time of year. [ from earlier post ]Higher ocean heat in combination with higher air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are two drivers behind the slow growth in Arctic sea ice extent. The image below shows high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean on November 5, 2024, 00Z. High temperature anomalies are in turn resulting in high anomalies in precipitable water, as illustrated by the image below.  There are many feedbacks and other mechanisms active and they are interacting on top of driving up temperatures individually. Albedo change is a feedback that can have a huge impact. The record low global sea ice extent is accelerating the rise in global temperatures, as it results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more heat getting absorbed by oceans.  Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• National Institute of Polar Research Japanhttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice charthttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Copernicushttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: precipitable water, rise, sea ice, temperature]

— Models downplay wrath of what they sow

 

at 10/26/24 10:44pm

Models that analyze what is driving up the temperature all too often omit specific sources, or when included, models all too often downplay their contribution. Accordingly, policies that are promoted based on such models are all too often ineffective or even counter-productive. Methane is all too often referred to as 'natural gas' originating from wetlands, swamps, cows and pigs, as if calling methane 'natural' implied that human activities were not responsible for such emissions. Moreover, people with vested interests all too often suggest that such 'natural emissions' should be captured and used for heating, cooking or industrial purposes, to offset 'human emissions'. Similarly, forest fires are all too often referred to as 'wildfires', as if human activities were not responsible for them. The compilation of images below shows forest fires as the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions on October 26, 2024. An image of carbon monoxide is also added (bottom right), as carbon monoxide is an indicator of forest fires. Carbon monoxide is also important since it is a precursor of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide depletes tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, thus extending methane's lifetime. The methane image (top right) shows a high presence of methane in northern Europe. The cause for this is the high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe on October 26, 2024, resulting in strong decomposition of vegetation, which comes with high emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane. The high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe is illustrated by the above image. The image also illustrates polar amplification of the temperature rise, one of the mechanisms that drives up the temperature rise. Numerous mechanisms driving up the temperature rise are discussed in an earlier post that warns about a Double Blue Ocean Event. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide. The image below, from an earlier post, shows a trend added based on August 2009 through July 2024 data. If this trend continues, 1200 ppm CO₂ could be crossed in early 2035. In other words, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2035 due to rising CO₂ alone, and because this tipping point is measured in CO₂e, this could occur well before 2035 when including the impact of further forcers.[ from earlier post ]Rising emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources.[ from earlier post ]Climate Emergency DeclarationInstead of omitting such emissions, all mechanisms driving up the temperature should be fully included in any action plan that seeks to improve the situation. Multiple policy instruments and combinations of policy instruments should be considered for implementation, preferably through local feebates. The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Copernicus - Climate Pulsehttps://atmosphere.climate.copernicus.eu• Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025? https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: downplay, models, natural gas, policies, wildfires]

— Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

 

at 10/4/24 7:39am

In September 2024, Arctic sea ice reached a new record low volume, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, with markers for September (red) and April (blue) corresponding with the year's minimum- and maximum volume.Trends could be added pointing at Arctic sea ice approaching zero volume soon; even more worrying, tipping points could be crossed and speed up the temperature rise beyond a smooth curve. Currently, Antarctic sea ice extent is at its maximum for the year, in line with seasonal changes. Antarctic sea ice is now about 17 million square km in extent, much lower than it was a decade ago.Global sea ice extent is now several million square km lower than it was decades ago. There are indications that sea ice volume is already decreasing, as illustrated by the images by University of Bremen below shows sea ice volume at August 27, 2024 (left), and September 29, 2024 (right). On February 16, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.95 million square km. There are at least seven mechanisms causing surface temperatures to rise, accelerating sea ice decline, as follows: 1. latent heat buffer loss  ➭  less heat gets consumed by melting2. sea ice changing into dark ocean  ➭  less sunlight is reflected3. less sea ice  ➭  less outward radiation4. ocean warming  ➭  less lower clouds  ➭  less sunlight reflected5. ocean warming  ➭  stratification  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters6. ocean currents and wind patterns change  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters7. freshwater lid forms at ocean surface  ➭  more heat reaches Arctic OceanThe black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.A new El Niño could emerge in the course of 2025, while sunspots reach a peak in this cycle (expected to occur in July 2025), adding further heat.As temperatures keep rising, this could cause a second Blue Ocean Event to occur in 2025, I.e. in the Arctic. Subsequently, as the oceans keep heating up, the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns. [ from earlier post - click on images to enlarge ]Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japanhttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thicknesshttps://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice charthttps://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html • Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Blue Ocean Event, extent, latent heat, methane, sea ice, volume]

— High temperatures despite La Niña?

 

at 9/23/24 12:53am

[ Northern Hemisphere SSTA - click on images to enlarge ] Temperatures remain extremely high, even though La Niña conditions may already be present, as illustrated by the above image, showing sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) versus 1981-2011.  The image on the right shows Northern Hemisphere (45.00°,90.00°) SSTA on September 20, 2024. There are only very few cold spots, while massive amounts of ocean heat are present in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.  SSTA are extremely high in the North Atlantic, reaching a record high for the time of year on September 22, 2024, as illustrated by the image below (SSTA vs 1882-2011).  The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at a record high on September 22, 2024. The danger of methane hydrates getting destabilizedThe Gulf Stream keeps pushing Ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, and this can be accelerated by storms that are amplified due to high sea surface temperatures, deformation of the Jet Stream and a freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic. At the same time, Arctic sea ice starts expanding rapidly in extent at this time of year, effectively sealing off the Arctic Ocean and making it hard for heat to get transferred from the surface of the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. As discussed in earlier posts, Arctic sea ice has become very thin, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains the same. Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.[ The Latent Heat Buffer ]Ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, can no longer get consumed by melting of the sea ice once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.  The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow. [ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] Eruptions from hydrates occur at great force, since the methane expands 160 times in volume when it vaporizes, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column, which especially applies to the many areas where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldyhttps://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic Ocean, hydrates, latent heat, methane, rise, SSTA, temperature]

— AI-controlled apes with apps at seconds to Midnight

 

at 9/22/24 1:17am

by Andrew Glikson What further evidence do the inhabitants of planet Earth need to have to convince them the liveable climate, the lungs of the Earth, is sharply deteriorating, species are dying, the mere failure of a computer chip or of a human neuron are capable of terminating civilization, that the powers that be are leading to one of the greatest mass extinction in the history of the Earth and that mass migration to Mars is a cynical myth. At the death of détente the powers that be, aimed toward World War III, do not appear to be concerned with the consequences of extreme global warming, clear evidence for their lack of concern for life on Earth.[ Guernica, mural by Pablo Picasso, from Wikipedia ]On Monday 26 April 1937, the Basque town of Guernica was bombed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy at the request of the Spanish Nationalists under the command of General Francisco Franco during the Spanish Civil War. No painting other than Pablo Picasso’s Guernica more strikingly depicts the massacre of the oncoming fascism – the human death cult reaching a peak in World War II and re-emerging toward World War III, as nuclear fleets and climate extremes aim at life on Earth, as Governments and snake-oil merchants spend $trillions threatening to radioactivate the atmosphere, reinventing the killing fields under false-flags as Goebbels-like agents with blood on their hands deceive the multitude to the tune of canned laughter, women carry dead children, multi-billionaires plan future space shots out of the mouths of the hungry, Olympic cyclists write themselves into history and only the young rebel against the global insanity.[ from: The Madness of Nuclear and Climate Horror ]Cycles of death, repeated almost every generation, follow breakups in the international order, women die alongside their men as in the Spanish Civil war, or are left to rebuild their shattered homes.Over the past few decades the probability of a nuclear war has grown to some 12,121 hair-triggered weapons aimed at all life, that the criminal powers refuse to dismantle, propagating hollow Orwellian speak on the airwaves. But while it is common for the misguided to attribute atrocities to so called “leaders”, including in parliaments, which the people initially elected under false pretences.The consequences range from fatal imperial wars to global climate calamities. According to Jeffrey D. Sachs (July 16, 2024): “The quest for hegemony has pushed the world to open warfare between the world’s two leading nuclear powers”.As conveyed by Thucydides Trap, the rise of empires constitutes a major driver of international conflict, from the Persian superpower to the Roman empire. In the modern era, détente could hardly survive while submarine and space weapon systems proliferate and adversaries seek “victory” at the price of millions of lives in World wars. There is no evidence current promoters of the looming nuclear war can be brought to trial in a future round of Nuremberg trials.Fascism, coined after the Roman fascia, tantamount to military barbarism, represents the hallmark of tribal killing through history, as contrasted with a small percent of peaceful nomadic tribes. The ratio of male deaths in modern wars is far less.The ultimate control of a future global biosphere by AI-weapon systems can only subject civilization and the living biosphere to an intelligence-free world, hard to conceive less brutal than World wars I, II or the looming World War III.But blame cannot be exclusively attributed to “leaders”, so-called, who once elected into positions of “power” need to conform to those in control of industry and society. Opinion makers manufacture consent. The mega-rich, tycoons, corporate directors, shareholders and managers of the “fourth estate” paint black as white propagating major untruths, for example making it look as if carbon exports can be distinguished from domestic greenhouse emissions in terms of their effects on the atmosphere.While responsibility belongs to all of humanity, it is the relatively affluent “first world” governments which generate the oncoming collapse (Jared Diamond, 2005).A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080 

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, climate, extinction, nuclear war, Spiral of Failure]

— Will we be alive in 2025, who will survive, 2025?

 

at 9/11/24 9:52pm

The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine pre-industrial base. The image below featured in an earlier post and was created with an image from the NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are here.  The image below, from an earlier post and created with an image from the NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing). Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots expected to occur in July 2025. Further potential causes are discussed in this earlier post. Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this earlier post. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. Climate Emergency Declaration The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • NASA - Gistemphttps://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html• Water Vapor Feedbackhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html• High feels like temperature forecasthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: anomalies, pre-industrial, rise, temperature, trend]

— Water Vapor Feedback

 

at 9/4/24 2:48am

Earth's Energy Imbalance is now about four times as high as it was a decade ago, as illustrated by the above image, by Eliot Jacobson. As a result, feedbacks are starting to kick in with greater ferocity. Water vapor feedback One such feedback is the water vapor feedback. The temperature rise results in more evaporation, i.e. more water vapor and heat will enter the atmosphere, much of which will return to the surface in the form of precipitation, but some will remain in the atmosphere, as there will be 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming. As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water was at 27.181 kg/m² in August 2024, a record high for this month. [ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ] How much more water vapor currently is in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial depends on how much the temperature has risen since pre-industrial. The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. More water vapor and heat in Arctic The temperature rise also comes with stronger wind. An earlier post points at a study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.Stronger wind speeds up ocean currents, enabling more ocean heat to move to the Arctic, while stronger wind also contributes to more rain falling closer to the Arctic, in line with prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns. As a result, both heat and water vapor will increase in the Arctic. This will in turn further increase the temperature rise in the Arctic, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, while more water vapor also results in less hydroxyl, thus extending methane's lifetime.The resulting temperature rise in the Arctic also reduces the snow and ice cover, further amplifying the temperature rise in the Arctic. Huge temperature riseHigh levels of methane are already present over the Arctic and the water vapor feedback makes things worse. Additionally, more ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean can destabilize hydrates at the seafloor and cause methane eruptions, resulting in huge amounts of methane entering the atmosphere over the Arctic.  Changes to ocean currents and the Jet Stream can at times hold back some of these impact, but such changes on the other hand can also amplify the impact. As Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps rising, huge amounts of heat accumulate in oceans, and part of this heat can - due to storms - abruptly be pushed into the Arctic, which can be further facilitated by the formation of a freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid to the Arctic Ocean, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns. A huge temperature rise could unfold by 2026 as the joint result of changes in the atmosphere, changes in surface and cloud albedo, changes in wind patterns & ocean currents, and further developments, e.g. in a cataclysmic alignment, the next El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025.The joint impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed, adding an abrupt further 8°C to the rise, which could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to get crossed, which means that from then on the increase in water vapor alone would suffice to keep increasing the temperature, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation could cause a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, as this study concludes and as discussed at this post.[ click on images to enlarge ]A 2020 study led by Jorgen Randers concludes that the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming, as self-sustained thawing of the permafrost will continue for hundreds of years, even if global society did stop all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases immediately, due to a combination of declining surface albedo (driven by decline of the Arctic snow and ice cover), increasing amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and changes in concentrations of further greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (driven by changes in sinks and sources of carbon dioxide and methane such as thawing permafrost), as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links • Earth Energy Imbalance - by Eliot Jacobsonhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWULN7SbQAIJOCV.jpg:large• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Resetting tropospheric OH and CH4 lifetime with ultraviolet H2O absorption - by Michael Prather et al. https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adn0415Discussed on facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161571351924679• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds, El Nino, feedback, precipitable water, water vapor]

— Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe

 

at 9/3/24 3:36am

Sunspots In a cataclysmic alignment, the next El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025.The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).[ click on images to enlarge ]The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C. El NiñoHigh sunspots could line up with an upcoming El Niño and with further forcing by short-term variables, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present and a transition to La Niña is expected by September-November 2024, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. The La Niña may be short-lived and a transition to the next El Niño may occur in the course of 2025. The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024. The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C. Sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.25°C. Further forcing could be added by additional events, e.g. submarine volcano eruptions could add huge amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere.Further forcingNatural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial. Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction by 2026. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• NOAA - Space Weather Prediction Centerhttps://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407/supplemental/page-4• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: El Nino, ENSO, rise, sunspots, temperature]

— Carbon dioxide growing rapidly

 

at 8/22/24 5:35am

The image below shows NOAA monthly mean concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, from 2020 through July 2024. The inset shows that CO₂ was 425.55 parts per million (ppm) in July 2024, an increase of 3.72 ppm from July 2023, when CO₂ was 421.83 ppm. This 3.72 ppm growth is higher than the 3.36 ppm annual growth in 2023, the highest annual growth on record. The image below shows the same data, with a trend added based on August 2009 through July 2024 data.The above trend points at 430 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in February 2025, a jump of 10 ppm in two years time (from 420 ppm in February 2023 to 340 ppm in February 2025). Despite numerous warnings and despite politicians' pledges to act decisively, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is growing rapidly.If this trend continues, 1200 ppm CO₂ could be crossed in early 2035, as illustrated by the image below.  In other words, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2036 due to the rise in CO₂ alone. [ from earlier post ]Rising emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources.[ from earlier post ]The clouds tipping point is at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2035 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc. As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, a trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone.As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, high methane levels were recently recorded at the observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska.As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds - at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200 - with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point.This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page.[ image from the Extinction page ]There are further emissions and developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the temperature rise of the atmosphere.Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments (such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect and sunspots reaching a peak) could all contribute to cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html• Albedohttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: carbon dioxide, feedbacks, methane, tipping point]

— Paris Agreement thresholds crossed

 

at 8/10/24 1:47am

High temperatures persistThe NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1903-1924 through July 2024 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past thirteen months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.On August 8, 2024, the daily global air temperature anomaly was +0.75°C and the anomaly has been at about the same level for over the past 13 months, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. The current temperature is higher than the temperature at this time of year in 2023, which is remarkable given that we were in an El Niño back in August 2023, while a transition to La Niña around August-October 2024 is expected, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.In fact, feedbacks could cause a transition to a new El Niño while temperatures remain high and while sunspots will be reaching the peak of this cycle, which - in combination with further events and variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.IPCC keeps downplaying the dangerNote that neither the 1903-1924 base (image top) nor the 1991-2020 base (above image) are pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past thirteen months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps downplaying the danger, e.g. by claiming that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold.[ from earlier post ]The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• Copernicus - Climate Pulsehttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf• Cataclysmic Alignmenthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html• Sunspotshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Paris Agreement, rise, temperature]

— High feels like temperature forecast

 

at 8/2/24 10:49pm

Temperatures are forecast to reach 46.5°C or 115.8°F in Saudi Arabia (green circle left) and to reach 36.1°C or 96.9°F in China (green circle right) on August 4, 2024 06 UTC.'Feels like' temperatures are forecast to reach 42.1°C or 107.9°F in Saudi Arabia (green circle left) and 53.6°C or 128.4°F in China (green circle right) on August 4, 2024 06 UTC, as illustrated by the image below. What make the difference is that the 'feels like' temperature is the perceived air temperature as a combination of the heat index and wind chill. The heat index combines air temperature and relative humidity, in shaded areas. Relative humidity is forecast to be 7% in Saudi Arabia at the green circle left and 69% in China at the green circle right on August 4, 2024 06 UTC, as illustrated by the image below. An earlier post shows that a 'feels like' temperature of 54°C (129.1°F) hit an area west of Wuhan, China, on July 23, 2024 at 10:00 UTC (green circle).As temperatures rise, high 'feels like' temperatures can be expected to occur more and more. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Dangerhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperature-danger.html• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html• Extreme heat stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: feels like, heat index, temperature]

— Thickest sea ice breaking away from Greenland

 

at 7/31/24 4:07am

Large pieces of sea ice are breaking away from the northern tip of Greenland, to be carried by ocean currents to the Fram Strait east of Greenland. On their way they will melt away, illustrating how ocean heat can make even the thickest parts of the sea ice disappear in a matter of days. The thick sea ice north of Greenland is breaking away due to high ocean heat and due to strong wind blowing from Greenland toward the North Pole, which is in turn due to deformation of the Jet Stream, one of the many feedback of the temperature rise. [ click on images to enlarge ]The above image shows wind at 250 hPa and sea surface temperature, with a temperature of 0.5°C (32.9°F) highlighted at the green circle just north of Greenland, on July 29, 2024.On the right is a Naval Research Laboratory animation of Arctic sea ice thickness through July 29, 2024, with forecasts added through August 6, 2024.The animation below shows a NASA Worldview animation of satellite images from July 25, 2024 to July 29, 2024. This is a 6.5 MB file, so if it doesn't show up due to its size, you may be able to view it by clicking on the Facebook comment box underneath. [ click on images to enlarge ]Links• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/07/29/1500Z/ocean/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-48.26,93.80,1135/loc=-16.000,82.950• Naval Research Laboratoryhttps://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html• NASA Worldviewhttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, Greenland, sea ice]

— High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Danger

 

at 7/24/24 2:18am

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) takes into account the effect of temperature, RH (relative humidity), wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT is used by weather.gov to warn about extreme heat stress when in direct sunlight, as is forecast to occur in grey areas on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC. [ click on images to enlarge ]The inset shows that a temperature of 113°F or 45°C and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 95°F or 35°C is forecast for a location 8 miles south of Parker, Arizona, on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC. The above map illustrates that extreme heat stress can occur at higher latitudes, e.g. the grey areas in the north of the United States that extend into Canada. The danger occurs where high temperatures coincide with high relative humidity. The image below further illustrates the danger. It shows that a 'feel like' temperature of 54°C (129.1°F) and a wet bulb temperature of 31°C (87.7°F) hit an area west of Wuhan, China, on July 23, 2024 at 10:00 UTC (green circle). The temperature at that location in China wasn't the highest on the map, it was 36.4°C (97.4°F), which is high, but what further contributed to make conditions hard to bear was that relative humidity was 68%.The image on the right, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a 3-day forecast of temperatures in the region, run on July 23, 2024. Heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, as illustrated by the image below (credit: NOAA). As the above image notes, the values for heat fatalities may be conservative. Research finds that where heat is being listed as an official cause of death, this likely underestimates the full toll of these events. Extreme heat can trigger heart attacks and strokes. In addition, some heart disease risk factors, such as diabetes—as well as heart medications, such as diuretics and beta blockers—can affect a person’s ability to regulate their body temperature and make it difficult to handle extreme heat. The study finds that extreme heat accounted for about 600-700 additional deaths from cardiovascular disease annually. A study estimates that extreme heat accounted for 12,000 premature deaths in the contiguous U.S. from 2000 to 2010, and an analysis calculates that the summer 2022 heatwave killed 61,000 people in Europe alone.As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.Climate change danger assessmentThe image below, earlier discussed here, expands risk assessment beyond its typical definition as the product of the severity of impact and probability of occurrence, by adding a third dimension: timescale, in particular imminence.Imminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible.Rapidly rising temperatures constitute tipping points in several ways Firstly, there is a biological threshold beyond which rising temperatures become lethal for humans, as discussed above. Secondly, as Gerardo Ceballos describes in the video below and in a 2017 analysis, there is a biological tipping point that threatens annihilation of species via the ongoing sixth mass extinction. Researchers such as Gerardo Ceballos (2020), Kevin Burke (2018) and Ignation Quintero (2013) have for years warned that mammals and vertebrates cannot keep up with the rapid rise in temperature. Humans are classified as vertebrate mammals, indicating that we will not avoid the fate of extinction, Guy McPherson (2020) adds. Thirdly, there are further tipping points, e.g. social-political ones. On the one hand, it would be good if people became more aware, as this could prompt more people into supporting the necessary action. On the other hand, as temperatures keep rising, there is also a danger that panic will break out, dictators will grab power and civilization as we know it will collapse abruptly, as warned about earlier, e.g. in 2007. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Wet Bulb Globe Temperaturehttps://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov• National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use ithttps://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT• The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance - by Colin Raymons et al. (2020)https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838• Brief periods of dangerous humid heat arrive decades earlyhttps://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/brief-periods-dangerous-humid-heat-arrive-decades-early• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022)https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679• NOAA - Weather Fatalities 2022https://www.weather.gov/hazstat• The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States - by Drew Shindell (2021)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000234• Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 - by Joan Ballester et al.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-zDiscussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160875637104679• As Temperatures Spike, So Do Deaths from Heart Disease (2022 News release)https://www.acc.org/About-ACC/Press-Releases/2022/03/22/20/06/As-Temperatures-Spike-So-Do-Deaths-from-Heart-Disease• Association of Extreme Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: A County-Level Longitudinal Analysis From 2008 to 2017 - by Sameed Khatana et al. (2022)https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.060746• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156903792219679• When will we die?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html• Climate Reanalyzer - Hourly Forecast Mapshttps://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=nam&dm_id=conus-lc&wm_id=t2• PBS video - Too HOT and HUMID to Live: Extreme Wet Bulb Events are on the Rise https://www.pbs.org/video/too-hot-and-humid-to-live-extreme-wet-bulb-events-are-on-th-fazocs• Nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• How agriculture hastens species extinction | 60 Minutes (CBS News) | Gerardo Ceballoshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=f21WWocqR-c• Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich and Rodolfo Dirzo (2017)https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089• Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul Ehrlich, and Peter Raven (2020)https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/27/1922686117Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158460232764679• Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species - by Ignatio Quintero et al. (2013) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12144• Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates - by Kevin Burke et al. (2018)https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156972951354679• Earth is in the Midst of Abrupt, Irreversible Climate Change - by Guy McPherson (2020)https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdfDiscussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160004947844679• Ten Dangers of Global Warminghttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html• Extreme heat stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: heat, stress, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature]

— Both Paris Agreement thresholds clearly crossed

 

at 7/13/24 5:06am

The NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1904-1924 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past twelve months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise. Note that the 1904-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past twelve months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed. [ from earlier post ] The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then. Climate Emergency Declaration The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov • Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: 2°C, crossed, Paris Agreement, thresholds]

— The predicament of climate scientists on the road to a super tropical Earth

 

at 7/11/24 5:53am

 by Andrew GliksonFigure 1. 2023 was the Earth's warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880.As temperatures in large parts of the Earth are soaring (cf. 52.3°C in Delhi, flames engulf large regions in California, tornadoes ravage the Gulf of Mexico states, severe drought starve populations in southern Africa and climate extremes continue to taking over large parts of the Earth. Much like oncologists advising patients and their families of a terminal illness, so do climate scientists agonizing while reporting the advent of dangerous warming as temperatures rise and tipping points are broken. But while climate change has become more than evident, there is a heavy price to be paid by those who try to alert the public.Figure 2. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis (Hansen et al., 2024).One of the glaring misconceptions, which ignores the dispersal of greenhouse gases throughout the atmosphere, is as if their global effects depend on the country from which the carbon is extracted. Further, politically originated stigmas labels scientists as some kind of “alarmists”or “Cassandras”. A threat of institutional penalties affects scientist’s jobs. Along with the dominion of vested pro-carbon interests these factors drive humanity blind toward the Sixth Mass Extinction of Species.Figure 3. A prolonged dry spell in southern Africa in early 2024 scorched crops and threatened food security for millions of people.In private conversations, many climate scientists express far greater concern at the progression and consequences of global warming than they do in public.A number of prominent climate scientists representing the scientific consensus on climate change, as documented by the IPCC, have tried their best to convey the message in public forums, but were mostly shunned by conservative media. At the same time many climate scientists tend to regard the IPCC-based climate consensus as too optimistic. An article titled When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job (Richardson, 2015) states … “Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can’t really talk about it … Climate scientists have been so distracted and intimidated by the relentless campaign against them that they tend to avoid any statements that might get them labelled “alarmists”, instead retreating into a world of charts and data.“As stated by Noam Chomsky: “It’s interesting that these public climate debates leave out almost entirely a third part of the debate, namely a very substantial number of scientists, competent scientists, who think that the scientific consensus is much too optimistic. A group of scientists at MIT came out with a report about a year ago describing what they called the most comprehensive modelling of the climate that had ever been done. Their conclusion, which was unreported in public media as far as I know, was that the major scientific consensus of the international commission is just way off, it’s much too optimistic … their own conclusion was that unless we terminate use of fossil fuels almost immediately, it’s finished. We’ll never be able to overcome the consequences. That’s avoided in the debate.”Antarctica is losing ice at an average rate of more than 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing more than 270 billion tons per year, adding to sea level rise. Some glaciologists and Arctic scientists consider the accelerated rate of glacial melt in Greenland and West Antarctica may result in little remaining ice over these terrains toward the end of the century, leading to sea level rise on the scale of many meters, with catastrophic consequences for coastal and river valley population centres.The Arctic Ocean contains vast amounts of carbon accumulated during the Pleistocene ice ages. The greenhouse effect of methane traps up to 100 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide within a 5 year period, and 72 times more within a 20 year period. Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – continued their climb during 2023 according to the latest measurements from NOAA and CIRES scientists. The current CO₂ growth rate threatens an irreversible shift in the state of the Earth climate through looming tipping points, including transient cooling events induced by flow of cold ice melt water into the oceans from Greenland and Antarctica; Glikson (2019).Figure 4. Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.There is little evidence that climate science had much of an effect on the outcome of the Paris Agreement. The warming target of +1.5°C has already been breached over the continents or is masked by the reflective albedo of transient sulphur aerosols. At the current growth rate of ~3 ppm/year CO₂ will rise closer to the stability threshold of the polar ice sheets.Little encouragement can be gained from the non-binding promises emerging from climate conferences, which James Hansen described as a “fraud”.While the implications of the global climate emergency have reached the defence establishment, the world continues to spend near to $2.4 trillion each year on the military instead on the protection of life.As the portents for a major mass extinction of species are rising – who will defend life on Earth?A/Prof. Andrew Y GliksonEarth and climate scientistAndrew GliksonBooks:The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolutionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earthhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocenehttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizonhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligencehttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australiahttps://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinctionhttps://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocenehttps://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Andrew Glikson, extinction]

— Temperature rise threatens to accelerate even more

 

at 7/8/24 8:15am

The above image, created with Climate Reanalyzer content, shows that June 2024 was substantially hotter than June 2023, which is significant since we're not in an El Niño anymore. Moreover, monthly temperatures are also rising.According to Copernicus, the global-average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024) has been more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), adds: "June marks the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures, and the 12th in a row above 1.5°C with respect to pre-industrial. This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate." Note that, as discussed in earlier posts, anomalies from a genuinely pre-industrial base could be much higher. Arctic sea iceThe danger is that feedbacks and further developments will accelerate the temperature rise even more. Critical in this respect is the condition of Arctic sea ice. The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, indicates that Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for most of the year. At the same time, sea ice extent is still relatively large; Arctic sea ice extent was 3% below average in June 2024, close to the values observed most years since 2010, according to Copernicus. The implication is that sea ice must be very thin. The combination image below, from an earlier post and adapted from the University of Bremen, indicates that most of the thicker sea ice has melted in the course of June 2024, and that the latent heat buffer may be gone soon.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Copernicus: June 2024 marks 12th month of global temperature reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2024-marks-12th-month-global-temperature-reaching-15degc-above-pre-industrialDiscussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161520778324679• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html • Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thicknesshttps://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• Copernicus - Sea ice cover for June 2024 https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-june-2024• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• Latent heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, rise, sea ice, temperature]

— Carbon dioxide keeps rising in June 2024

 

at 7/6/24 1:24am

The above image shows a trend (magenta), based on NOAA August 2008 through June 2024 data (black) and added on a canvas that is 31.42-year wide. If this trend continues, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2037 due to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone. [ from earlier post ] Rising CO₂ emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources. [ from earlier post ] Despite the many warnings and despite pledges by politicians to act decisively, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Until now, the annual peak was typically reached in May, but this year the June average was (slightly) higher than the May average, ominously pointing at an even higher growth than the record growth in 2023. Over the past twelve months, CO₂ concentrations have been recorded of well over 430 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below. The clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2037 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc. As illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone. As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point. This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page. [ image from the Extinction page ] There are many further developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the heating up of the atmosphere. Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2 https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts • Albedohttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html• Feedbacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Latent Heathttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: clouds tipping point, CO2, greenhouse gases, latent heat, rise, temperature]

— Feedbacks

 

at 7/3/24 6:56am

Water vapor feedbackThere are numerous self-amplifying feedbacks that accelerate the temperature rise. One of them is the water vapor feedback. Just the temperature rise itself will cause more water vapor to be in the atmosphere.[ from Moistening Atmosphere ]The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature.A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, as the extinction page points out. The increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-amplifying feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, accelerating the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water reached 26.741 kg/m² in June 2024.As the above images also illustrates, surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, and was much higher for each of the first six months in 2024 than for the same months in 2023. More emissions of greenhouse gases (from earlier post)Rising temperatures cause more emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.  Studies such as by Hubau (2020) warn that the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Studies now warn that the Arctic has also changed from sink to source.A study by Del Vecchi et al. (2024) suggests that a gradual thawing of Arctic permafrost could release between 22 billion and 432 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2100 if current greenhouse gas emissions are reined in — and as much as 550 billion tons if they are not.An analysis by Ramage et al. (2024) concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth.Note that the joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only covers part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon). Miesner et al. (2023) warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and tighter fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this 2022 one.Further feedbacksThe image below on the right illustrates how two feedbacks contribute to accelerated Arctic temperature rise:[ from earlier post ]Feedback #1: albedo loss as sea ice melts due to rising temperatures and due to it getting covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice.Sea ice decline comes with loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer, both of which accelerate the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can cause destablization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can result in eruption of huge amounts methane. A further danger is that the temperature rise will cause stronger wind, waves and storms, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and more ocean stratification, exacerbated by more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. In the North Atlantic, there is the added danger that formation of a freshwater lid will cause huge amounts of ocean heat to be pushed into the Arctic Ocean and enter the atmosphere as sea ice disappears. Further developmentsFurthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions can all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Moistening Atmospherehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Arctic Sea Ice Alerthttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/arctic-sea-ice-alert.html• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: albedo, Arctic, feedbacks, heat, jet stream, latent heat, ocean, rise, temperature, water vapor]

— How hot will it get?

 

at 6/24/24 1:20am

Currently, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere is higher than it was last year at this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with University of Maine content. The image shows that a temperature of 21.1°C was reached in the Northern Hemisphere on June 17, 2024. The question is: Will temperatures over the next few months exceed the high temperatures reached last year?  El Niño is no longer prevalent and La Niña conditions are expected to be dominant soon, as illustrated by the NOAA ENSO update on the right, from an earlier post. Nonetheless, there are fears that temperatures will remain high and continue to rise, as self-amplifying feedbacks have taken over as the dominant drivers of the temperature rise. This was discussed earlier, in recent posts such as this one and this one. There are numerous feedbacks that can further accelerate the temperature rise. Higher temperatures come with more water vapor in the atmosphere, an important feedback since water vapor is also a potent greenhouse gas. Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, from an earlier post. Worryingly, a value of 26.138 kg/m² was reached in May 2024, much higher than the 25.378 kg/m² in May 2023, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. Rising temperatures are also behind the decline of sea ice and permafrost, which can in turn result in huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Deformation of the Jet Stream is another feedback. This occurs strongly in the Northern Hemisphere as the Arctic heats up more rapidly than the rest of the world, narrowing the temperature difference between the Tropics and the Arctic.Deformation of the Jet Stream can amplify extreme weather events such as storms that cause flooding and heatwaves that cause forest fires. [ click on images to enlarge ]Deformation of the Jet Stream also enables strong winds to develop over the North Atlantic, which can at times strongly accelerate the speed at which hot water is flowing toward the Arctic Ocean along path of the Gulf Stream.A deformed Jet Stream can temporarily speed up this flow, causing huge amounts of Ocean heat to get abruptly pushed into the Arctic Ocean in the path of the Gulf Stream.The image on the right shows hot water getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Arctic Ocean. The image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.3°C on June 22, 2024.Two tipping points threaten to get crossed as temperatures rise and Arctic sea ice disappears, i.e. the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point, as discussed in an earlier post. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links • Climate Reanalyzer, https://climatereanalyzer.org • Arctic Sea Ice Alert https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/arctic-sea-ice-alert.html • Have feedbacks taken over?https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/have-feedbacks-taken-over.html • nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Two Tipping Pointshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, feedbacks, Laptev Sea, latent heat, Lena River, ocean, rise, seafloor methane, temperature]

— Arctic Sea Ice Alert

 

at 6/11/24 4:35am

Temperatures are getting very high in the Northern Hemisphere. The image on the right shows maximum temperatures on June 10, 2024, with very high temperatures showing up over a large area around the North Pole. Temperatures can be expected to keep rising. The image underneath shows a forecast of maximum temperature on June 13, 2024, with very high temperatures showing up on land around the Arctic Ocean, above 20°C in Alaska, parts of Siberia and on an area in Greenland. This year, temperatures are extremely high, and this is especially the case for temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the North Atlantic. Temperatures in the North Atlantic strongly affect Arctic sea ice. As temperatures rise and the Jet Stream gets more deformed, heatwaves can extend over the Arctic, and huge amounts of ocean heat get suddenly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean in the path of the Gulf Stream. The image below shows the rising ocean heat content anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, compared to the 2013-2023 mean, with anomalies recently reaching a new record high above 20 KJ per cm². North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies have risen strongly over the past few years, as illustrated by the image below that highlights anomalies from 1951-1980 for May 2022, May 2023 and May 2024.As illustrated by the image below, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly has moved higher recently. Consequently, Arctic sea ice extent is now in sharp decline, as illustrated by the image below. [ click on images to enlarge ]The above image shows that Arctic sea ice is not the lowest on record for the time of year. Extent is one way to measure sea ice, next to extent, there are further ways to measure Arctic sea ice, such as extent and area. NSIDC explains: A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. Therefore, if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger.Another measure is concentration. The image on the right, from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on June 9, 2024. Yet another measure is volume, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute.  The above image confirms that Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year. Volume is calculated by multiplying thickness with concentration and with area, which implies that Arctic sea ice is very thin, as also indicated by the image below, adapted from the University of Bremen. Some questions remain regarding the above images, e.g. whether the darkest color means that there is no sea ice left at all or there are meltpools on top of the ice. That's why it's always good to look at measurements from multiple sources.   Loss of sea ice comes with numerous feedbacks that accelerate the temperature rise, and just the temperature rise itself comes with feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere.  Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. Worryingly, a value of 26.138 kg/m² was reached in May 2024, much higher than the 25.378 kg/m² in May 2023, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Ominously, the image below shows high methane levels over Scandinavia, which could be the result of higher temperatures. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, the temperature anomaly in Scandinavia was high in May 2024. A study by Del Vecchi et al. (2024) suggests that a gradual thawing of Arctic permafrost could release between 22 billion and 432 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2100 if current greenhouse gas emissions are reined in — and as much as 550 billion tons if they are not.An analysis by Ramage et al. (2024) concludes that Arctic terrestrial permafrost now emits more greenhouse gases than it stores, and the trend is likely to accelerate as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic. The highest carbon dioxide emissions over the 2000-2020 period came from inland rivers and wildfires. The non-permafrost wetlands exhaled the most methane, and dry tundra released the most nitrous oxide.The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth.Note that the joint CO₂e of emissions in this analysis only covers part of global emissions, e.g. the analysis excludes emissions from Arctic subsea permafrost and from oceans in general, from many mountain areas and from the Southern Hemisphere. The study also appears to have excluded emissions caused by anthropogenic disturbances such as clear-cutting, logging and fracking activities in the region, while calculations typically use a low global warming potential (GWP) for methane (100-year horizon).  Miesner et al. (2023) warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.The transition from sink to source of the region is an important feedback of the temperature rise that is not fully reflected in many climate models. According to the IPCC, 14–175 Gt CO₂e (in carbon dioxide and methane) gets released per 1°C of global warming, which is likely to underestimate the situation by downplaying many feedbacks. Despite the dire situation, the IPCC keeps promoting less effective policies such as support for biofuel and tighter fuel efficiency standards, as discussed in earlier posts such as this 2022 one. Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.Links• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldyhttps://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japanhttps://ads.nipr.ac.jp• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts• NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Centerhttps://nsidc.org• University of Bremen - Arctic sea icehttps://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thicknesshttps://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Copernicushttps://atmosphere.copernicus.eu• Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html• Copernicus - Climate Pulsehttps://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov• Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions - by Farshid Vahedifard et al. (2024)https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2c23discussed on facebook athttps://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161298567849679• Subsea permafrost organic carbon stocks are large and of dominantly low reactivity - by Frederieke Miesner et al. (2023) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36471-z• Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon - by Yuanyuan Huang et al. (2024) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi7918discussed at facebook athttps://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161354439024679• Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage - by Sarah Weiskopf et al. (2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47872-7Discussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161454674974679• Permafrost extent sets drainage density in the Arctic - by Joanmarie Del Vecchi et al (2024)https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2307072120Discussed at Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161248133064679• IPPCC AR6 Workgroup 1 Frequently Asked Questionshttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_05.pdf• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: Arctic, feedbacks, methane, sea ice]

— Have feedbacks taken over?

 

at 6/2/24 11:32pm

Despite pledges by politicians to ensure temperatures would not cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial, the rate at which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing appears to be accelerating, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA and showing concentration of carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. [ image from earlier post ] What could be behind these persistently high temperatures? Many causes such as El Niño have been discussed in earlier posts, but even more daunting is the prospect that feedbacks have taken over as the dominant driver of the temperature rise. After all, short-term variables such as El Niño come and go, whereas self-emplifying feedbacks keep accelerating the temperature rise. The above anomalies are calculated from a 1991-2000 base. The temperature rise is even higher when anomalies are calculated from a pre-industrial base. [ from earlier post ][ from Moistening Atmosphere ] The above image, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, as the extinction page points out. The increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-amplifying feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.Surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.139 kg/m² in July 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. [ from earlier post ] Worryingly, data for the first four months of 2024 are way higher than they were in 2023 at the same time of year, which raises fears that surface precipitable water will reach an even higher peak in 2024 than was reached in 2023. The situation is depicted even more clearly on the image below, created with the same data. As said, more water in the atmosphere further accelerates the temperature rise. Furthermore, high relative humidity also makes high temperatures more unbearable. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature, i.e. once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C. A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al., 2022) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% relative humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C, as discussed in an earlier post. You can view the temperature in either °C or °F and the relative humidity for spots on Earth at nullschool, and then calculate the associated wet-bulb temperature here.There are numerous tipping points and non-linear, self-amplifying feedbacks that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the feedbacks page.Climate Emergency DeclarationThe situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. Links • United Nations - Adoption of the Paris Agreement (2015)https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf • NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts • NASA - datasets and imageshttps://data.giss.nasa.gov• Climate Reanalyzerhttps://climatereanalyzer.org • Pre-industrialhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html• Extinctionhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html • Copernicus - Climate Pulse https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratoryhttps://psl.noaa.gov • Very high temperatures in Tropicshttps://arctic-news.blogshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.htmlpot.com/2024/05/very-high-temperatures-in-tropics.html• Extreme heat stresshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Pointhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSUHEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022)https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679• Temperature rise may soon accelerate even morehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/05/temperature-rise-may-soon-accelerate-even-more.html• nullschoolhttps://earth.nullschool.net• wet bulb temperature calculatorhttps://www.mit.edu/~eltahirgroup/calTW.html• Convert the temperature between Celsius and Fahrenheithttps://www.convert-me.com/en/convert/temperature/?u=dcelsius&v=40• Feebacks in the Arctichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html• Jet Streamhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantichttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html• Arctic Ocean Feedbackshttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html• Arctic sea ice set for steep declinehttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html• Transforming Societyhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html• Climate Planhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html• Climate Emergency Declarationhttps://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html  

[Author: Sam Carana] [Category: feedbacks, heat, humidity, rise, stress, temperature, vapor, water, wet bulb]

As of 11/22/24 8:06pm. Last new 11/5/24 3:13am.