Crooked Bough News Round-up

— US Treasury Extends Russian Crude Waiver Amid Supply Disruptions

 

at 4/18/26 1:10pm

US Treasury Extends Russian Crude Waiver Amid Supply Disruptions Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times, The Trump administration renewed a key sanctions waiver on April 17, allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, responding to urgent pressure from Asian nations battered by skyrocketing energy costs. The move also reverses a position Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had stated two days earlier. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 134B on Friday, authorizing transactions tied to Russian crude and petroleum products loaded onto vessels as of that date.  The waiver runs through May 16 and replaces a previous license that expired on April 11. The move comes after Bessent told reporters on Wednesday the administration would not extend the earlier waiver, signaling what appeared to be a firmer stance on Russian energy exports.  “As negotiations [with Iran] accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it,” a Treasury spokesperson said. The Russia-related license waiver excludes transactions to Iran, Cuba, and North Korea. Global oil prices tumbled 9 percent on Friday to about $90 a barrel after Iran temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz, an oil choke point in the Gulf. Trump also discussed oil on a call on Tuesday with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a major purchaser of Russian crude. The ongoing war in Iran has cost New Delhi access to approximately 3 million barrels per day that previously transited the Strait of Hormuz. The war, which enters its eighth week on Saturday, has damaged more than 80 oil and gas facilities in the Middle East, and Tehran has warned it could close the strait again if the recent U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports continues.  Just before Friday’s reversal, the Treasury had declared it was moving aggressively to maintain “maximum pressure” on Iran under its “Economic Fury” campaign, and would not renew a separate waiver on Iranian oil sales. The juxtaposition of tightening Iranian sanctions while loosening Russian oil relief underscores the competing pressures bearing on the administration’s energy policy. Friday’s decision follows a series of energy-related policy adjustments Washington has made since U.S.–Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February. On March 6, Bessent said the United States may consider easing sanctions on more Russian oil after granting India a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian crude.  Days later, on March 9, Trump said Washington would waive oil-related sanctions on some countries. “We’re looking to keep the oil prices down,” he said during a press conference in Miami, adding that prices had risen artificially due to the conflict. On March 18, the Treasury eased sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company, allowing U.S. companies to do business with the firm amid tightening oil supplies during the Iran war. The following day, Bessent said the United States may lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently in transit to bolster supply and stabilize energy prices. An Iranian oil waiver, issued March 20, ultimately allowed some 140 million barrels to reach global markets. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 15:10

— Dramatic Audio: Indian Tanker Was Given Permission Before Being Fired On By IRGC, Delhi Summons Ambassador

 

at 4/18/26 12:35pm

Dramatic Audio: Indian Tanker Was Given Permission Before Being Fired On By IRGC, Delhi Summons Ambassador India has summoned the Iranian ambassador in New Delhi in a rare moment of inter-BRICS discord after its tanker was attacked earlier Saturday while trying to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed once again. "During the meeting, the Foreign Secretary conveyed India's deep concern at the shooting incident earlier today involving two Indian-flagged ships in the Strait of Hormuz," the statement from India said. The full statement, which is still somewhat tame in its rhetoric in light of the fact that what the Indian vessel thought was an "approved" transit came under direct attack: The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports that a tanker was "approached by 2 IRGC gunboats, with no VHF challenge, and then fired upon." The official Indian government statement continues: "He noted the importance that India attached to the safety of merchant shipping and mariners and recalled that Iran had earlier facilitated the safe passage of several ships bound for India." It adds, "Reiterating his concern at this serious incident of firing on merchant ships,  the Foreign Secretary urged the Ambassador to convey India's views to the authorities in Iran and resume at the earliest the process of facilitating India-bound ships across the Strait." The ship has since been identified as the SANMAR HERALD: It is likely that the tanker in involved is the Indian-flagged VLCC Sanmar Herald (IMO 9330563) which as changed its name to INDIANSHIPINDIANCREW on AIS. In a recording of a purported VHF radio message circulating in the industry a crew member says it is the Sanmar Herald and “you gave me clearance to go, you are firing now, let me turn back”. An AIS track for the tanker from Pole Star Global also matches the timing and location given in the UKMTO warning. Clearly the audio, released by TankerTrackers, strongly suggests the captain and crew had prior permission from Tehran/IRGC authorities, which the dramatic exchange demonstrates:  Audio of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with Iranian forces to stop shooting at it in the Strait of Hormuz this morning. pic.twitter.com/7Y5n7Jb7o0 — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026 According to two Channel 16 audio recordings captured today, two Indian vessels were forced back west out of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Sepah (IRGC) Navy. Firing was involved. One of the vessels is an Indian-flagged VLCC supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil.… pic.twitter.com/c1uOvmKDNO — TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 18, 2026 A second Indian-flagged vessel seems to have been subject to inbound projectiles. More from the first Indian tanker's audio exchange with the Iranian side: Captain in dramatic audio: "You gave me clearance to go... you are firing now!" Meanwhile, President Trump reacted at the White House on Saturday: "We're talking to them. They wanted to close up the strait again — you know, as they've been doing for years — and they can't blackmail us." Subsequently there are reports that the US Navy could begin intercepting and boarding Iran-linked vessels anywhere in the world, as Washington tries to reassert leverage over the dicey Hormuz Strait situation. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 14:35

— An Overheating Feedback Loop

 

at 4/18/26 12:00pm

An Overheating Feedback Loop Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Congratulations, you made it through the panic…and now the market has decided none of it ever mattered and things are 5% better than they’ve ever been in history. Prices have not only recovered from the Iran war scare, they’ve pushed comfortably beyond where they were before it even started. The NASDAQ is logging a batshit insane 13-day winning streak, marking its longest consecutive green run since July 2009. That’s impressive, if your definition of impressive includes a complete disregard for unresolved risk and/or any type of valuation or fundamentals. Because despite what price action is implying, nothing has really been definitively fixed, guaranteed, or even clarified. Only time will solidify that, in my opinion. Yet here we are, higher anyway. What’s driving this move isn’t exactly a groundswell of improving fundamentals. It’s positioning. It’s call buying forcing dealers to chase the market higher. It’s short squeezes lighting a fire under anyone who dared to hedge. It’s CTAs and systematic strategies piling in as momentum signals flip. This is a feedback loop, not a sober reassessment of long-term value. These loops can run longer than expected, but they are not stable by nature. They are self-reinforcing until they are suddenly not. Don’t get it twisted. Valuations are stretched to the point where even the usually forgiving models are starting to sound like skeptics. The Shiller P/E is back near 40, a level that has historically been less a launchpad and more a warning sign. Price-to-sales, mean reversion frameworks, and all that happy horseshit that used to matter back when the market was a closed loop system without an injection valve for Fed liquidity at any moment’s notice are all flashing the same message. At this point, you’re not paying for growth, you’re paying for a very optimistic version of the future where almost nothing goes wrong. Can you blame SpaceX for trying to get a valuation at 125x sales for its IPO. But that’s the problem with markets at these levels. They don’t need a disaster to fall. They just need reality to be slightly less perfect than what’s currently priced in. Forget a private credit black swan. Just a mild earnings disappointment, a shift in liquidity, or even a rate cut (yes, cut) that signals underlying weakness instead of strength could be enough. The idea that rate cuts are automatically bullish tends to hold right up until the moment they aren’t, which is usually when they arrive for the wrong reasons. That “crash on rate cut” scenario people like to wave off doesn’t require imagination…it just requires a change in interpretation. ? 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever If you bought the dip over the last month, you did the “hard” part. You took risk when it was uncomfortable, when headlines were messy, and when positioning was cleaner. That’s where money is typically made. But confusing that trade with a long-term hold at these levels could be how gains quietly evaporate. Markets that rip higher on positioning tend to offer very little warning when they reverse, and they don’t pause to let everyone exit in an orderly fashion. Could this keep going? Absolutely. Markets can stay elevated, irrational, and frustratingly strong longer than seems reasonable. But I don’t think that makes it wise to press your luck here. At these valuations, with this kind of flow-driven backdrop, you are just not being particularly well compensated for the risk you’re taking, if you ask me. You’re relying on momentum to continue, and momentum is not a contract. This is, in my opinion, could be a great place to take some profits, especially if you participated in the recent move. Not because the market must immediately collapse, but because the balance of risk and reward has shifted in a way that should at least make you think twice. There’s a difference between letting winners run and refusing to acknowledge when the easy part is over. Proceed with caution. Because markets like this don’t send polite warnings when they turn and rip lower again. They just do it, and ask questions later. QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 14:00

— American Airlines Shuts Down United Merger Talk As Wells Fargo Signals Another Possible Tie-Up

 

at 4/18/26 11:25am

American Airlines Shuts Down United Merger Talk As Wells Fargo Signals Another Possible Tie-Up Certainly this past week saw several key stories in the aviation world. First came the story that Spirit Airlines could be liquidated at any moment, only to be followed later in the week by reports that the budget carrier had asked the Trump administration for an emergency bailout. Then, of course, came the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz late in the week, which sent jet fuel prices in New York sharply lower and airline stocks soaring... It now appears that American Airlines has rejected United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby's idea to merge the two carriers. Kirby recently pitched President Trump on the tie-up. American told The New York Times in a statement that it was "not engaged with or interested" in the merger idea pitched by CEO Kirby. "While changes in the broader airline marketplace may be necessary, a combination with United would be negative for competition and for consumers, and therefore inconsistent with our understanding of the administration's philosophy toward the industry and principles of antitrust law," American said, adding, "Our focus will remain on executing on our strategic objectives and positioning American to win for the long term." White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters earlier this week that the merger was "not something the president or the White House has an opinion on or is weighing in on at this time." Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee told clients that the American-United merger was unlikely, but on his radar was "an opportunity for United and Delta."  "This idea furthers our belief that the fuel shock presents an opportunity for United and Delta to emerge better positioned, potentially suggesting upside to out-year estimates," Wetherbee said. He noted a potential merger between United and American could be too large, as the combined carrier would control around 40% of domestic capacity without divestitures. As an alternative, Wetherbee suggested JetBlue could emerge as a smaller, more realistic target if American rejected United, giving United valuable assets in New York and Florida with less regulatory fallout. Some analysts have already described the airline industry as highly consolidated and a classic oligopoly. On our radar next week: Spirit's meeting with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, along with the carrier's uncertain fate as creditors could pull the plug at any moment. Attention will also shift to United and whether, after being rejected by American, it makes a move toward Delta. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices in New York are plunging, a welcome development for airlines after four weeks of soaring prices that led some carriers to hike bag fees and ticket prices to offset fuel costs. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 13:25

— The Universe Is Expanding 'Too Fast' And Nothing We Know Can Explain It

 

at 4/18/26 10:50am

The Universe Is Expanding 'Too Fast' And Nothing We Know Can Explain It Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, New ultra-precise measurements have confirmed the cosmos is expanding faster than models based on the early universe predict, while a separate study has dramatically shortened estimates of how long the universe itself will last. Astronomers have long observed a mismatch in the universe’s expansion rate depending on how it is measured. Local observations of nearby galaxies point to a faster rate, while data from the early universe, such as the cosmic microwave background, suggest a slower pace. This longstanding puzzle is known as the Hubble tension. A major international collaboration, the H0 Distance Network (H0DN), has now produced one of the most accurate local measurements yet. The team combined decades of independent distance measurements—including observations of red giant stars, Type Ia supernovae, and different galaxy types—into a unified “Local Distance Network.” Their result: the Hubble constant stands at 73.50 ± 0.81 kilometers per second per megaparsec, with precision just over 1 percent. James Webb just uncovered a serious problem with our understanding of the universe. New data from the James Webb Space Telescope confirms a major discrepancy in the universe's expansion rate, suggesting our current understanding of physics may be fundamentally incomplete. For… pic.twitter.com/x5sWtyHDI7 — Astronomy Vibes (@AstronomyVibes) April 10, 2026 “This isn’t just a new value of the Hubble constant,” the collaboration notes, “it’s a community-built framework that brings decades of independent distance measurements together, transparently and accessibly.” The findings, published April 10, 2026, in Astronomy & Astrophysics, strengthen the case that the discrepancy is not due to a simple measurement error. “This work effectively rules out explanations of the Hubble tension that rely on a single overlooked error in local distance measurements,” the authors conclude. “If the tension is real, as the growing body of evidence suggests, it may point to new physics beyond the standard cosmological model.” Dr Kathy Romer of the Dark Energy Survey commented, “The universe is not only expanding, but it is expanding faster and faster as time goes by.” She added, “What we’d expect is that the expansion would get slower and slower as time goes by, because it has been nearly 14 billion years since the Big Bang.” Dark Energy May Be Weakening Separate research using the largest-ever 3D map of the universe from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) has produced hints that dark energy—the force accelerating cosmic expansion—might not be constant but could be weakening over time. The DESI team mapped nearly 15 million galaxies and quasars. When combined with cosmic microwave background data and supernova observations, the results fit better with an evolving dark energy model than the standard assumption of a fixed force. Dr Willem Elbers, a researcher from the Institute for Computational Cosmology at Durham University, said: “For decades, we have relied on a standard model of the universe, but our new data suggests that dark energy might be evolving over time. If this is true, it will change everything we thought we knew about the cosmos.” Professor Will Percival, co-spokesperson for DESI and an astronomer from the University of Waterloo, added: “We’re guided by Occam’s razor, and the simplest explanation for what we see is shifting. It’s looking more and more like we may need to modify our standard model of cosmology to make these different datasets make sense together—and evolving dark energy seems promising.” Dr Andrei Cuceu, a researcher at Berkeley Lab who worked on the study, noted: “We’re in the business of letting the universe tell us how it works, and maybe the universe is telling us it’s more complicated than we thought it was.” Paul Steinhardt, Director of the Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, observed that if dark energy becomes weak enough, scientists say the universe could be pulled together into a Big Crunch “remarkably quickly.” UNIVERSE MAY END IN BIG CRUNCH New data suggests dark energy is weakening, letting gravity eventually collapse the universe. Expansion will reverse billions of years from now, ending everything in a single point. Source: NewsForce Host: @MacyGunnell pic.twitter.com/PxUdo1l9Sg — NewsForce (@Newsforce) April 9, 2026 A related theoretical model led by physicist Henry Tye from Cornell University and collaborators from China and Spain explores one possible scenario. Their calculations suggest the universe has a total lifespan of about 33.3 billion years. With 13.8 billion years already passed, roughly 19.5 billion years would remain. In this model, expansion continues for another 11 billion years before slowing, stopping, and reversing into collapse. New research suggests our universe might not expand forever as we once thought. Instead, it could eventually collapse in on itself in a “reverse Big Bang,” a scenario scientists call the Big Crunch. For years, astronomers believed the universe would keep growing, driven by a… pic.twitter.com/Fk8wx9Nvbw — Astronomy Vibes (@AstronomyVibes) December 21, 2025 These independent lines of inquiry highlight ongoing gaps in our understanding of the universe’s expansion rate and the behavior of dark energy. Future observations from next-generation telescopes are expected to test whether new physics is required to reconcile the data. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 12:50

— US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz

 

at 4/18/26 9:45am

US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz Summary:  Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman; 2nd tanker hit by 'unknown projectile' Pentagon prepared to expand anti-vessel action, signals prepared to board Iran-linked ships globally Friday: Hormuz Open; Saturday: Hormuz Closed  Trump: Iran wanted to close up Strait again, can't blackmail us //-- //-- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 28% · No 72%View full market & trade on Polymarket *  *  * US Prepares to Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally According to the latest headlines there was a second tanker incident: a Container ship reportedly hit by 'unknown projectile' in second incident while other traffic stalls. Meanwhile on Saturday the Pentagon is signaling yet another major escalation in the latest effort to reassert US leverage over the Hormuz crisis. It is preparing to expand the fight not just to the Hormuz/Persian Gulf regions, but broadly to the high seas. "The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East," WSJ reports. This means the American military will pursue vessels around the world that are helping Iran, as it steps up 'Economic Fury' as an extension of 'Epic Furty'. WSJ comments further: The planning comes as the Iranian military continues to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, attacking several commercial vessels on Saturday as it declared the waterway was being “strictly controlled” by Iran. The developments sent shipping companies scrambling a day after Iran’s foreign minister said the strait was fully open to commercial traffic—an announcement that was welcomed by President Trump. Audio of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with Iranian forces to stop shooting at it in the Strait of Hormuz this morning. pic.twitter.com/7Y5n7Jb7o0 — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026 The past days have seen both sides try and declare and assert control over the vital waterway and their own blockade based on rival 'conditions' for ship passage. But all of this has meant a continued effective closure. US Central Command (CENTCOM) has cited that the US Navy has already turned back at least 23 ships after they were at Iranian ports. In the meantime Trump is still claiming Iran agreed to hand over its enriched uranium - or nuclear 'dust' - but Tehran has made clear it will never do so, dismissing this as a made-up fantasy. Meanwhile... Iranian Forces Open Fire On Tanker  The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports that a tanker was "approached by 2 IRGC gunboats, with no VHF challenge, and then fired upon." UKMTO did not provide any further details about the two Iranian vessels that fired on the tanker or the type of weapons used in the maritime incident, which was reported to have occurred 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman. Assume that President Trump is about to become absolutely furious on Truth Social. One can also assume that backchanneling and behind-the-scenes talks are not going well if an incident like this occurred ahead of the U.S.-Iran weekend negotiations. Hormuz Closed (Again)  The Trump administration’s "baffle 'em with bullshit" methodology has been on full display, as the reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint on Friday drove a broad risk-on in markets: US equities soared, crude collapsed, and Treasury yields declined, based on the assumption that disruption to global energy flows had eased. However, as of early Saturday morning, those moves may prove premature. The Wall Street Journal reports that the world’s most important maritime chokepoint is once again closed to commercial transit. About 20 ships waiting to enter the Persian Gulf through the maritime chokepoint have turned back toward Oman after Iran’s military declared the waterway closed again, amid a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. And rejected: the two tankers taking the neutral route, Minerva Evropi and Nissos Keros, have turned around; the Sanmar Herald which appears to be taking the Iran-sanctioned Larak island route is proceeding. https://t.co/aceBI7ki0B pic.twitter.com/gmkM37iA1U — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 18, 2026 The OSINT community on X is reporting a Hormuz closure as well...  A bit of chaos in Hormuz this morning as nearly all of the outbound tankers have abruptly turned around. Follows an announcement by Iranian military leadership that the Strait has "reverted to its previous state of strict military control." pic.twitter.com/XSc6lvxwJo — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026 MERCHANT VESSELS RECEIVE RADIO MESSAGE FROM IRANIAN NAVY SAYING STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHUT AGAIN, NO SHIPS ARE ALLOWED TO PASS THROUGH, SHIPPING SOURCES SAY — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 18, 2026 The vessels had reportedly been prepared to pay $2 million in tolls to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to pass through, but radio warnings indicated the strait was closed. WSJ notes: They are now turning back because the Revolutionary Guards are sending radio messages that the strait is closed, according to one Hong Kong owner with a container ship waiting to transit the strait. Overnight, Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X that President Trump's "false" claims won't help in US-Iran negotiations... The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either. With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be conducted based on the "designated route" and with "Iranian authorization." Whether the Strait is open or closed and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, not by social media. Media warfare and engineering public opinion are an important part of war, and the Iranian nation is not affected by these tricks. Read the real and accurate news of the negotiations in the recent interview of the Foreign Ministry spokesman. Earlier, President Trump said peace talks with Iran are making progress and will continue over the weekend.   “We had some pretty good news 20 minutes ago, but it seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran,” Trump told reporters traveling to Washington on Air Force One, according to MS Now. “We’ll know over a little period of time. We’re negotiating over the weekend.” Trump said one main issue is recovering material from Iran’s nuclear program, which he said the U.S. would remove after any agreement is signed. “Maybe I won’t extend it, but the blockade is going to remain. But maybe I won’t extend it, so you have a blockade, and unfortunately, we’ll have to start dropping bombs again,” Trump said. Polymarket odds of the Hormuz chokepoint returning to normal status by the end of April have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last 24 hours, peaking at 64% on Friday morning after Iran announced the waterway was open, but dropping to 32% following Iran's announcement that the maritime chokepoint was closed early Saturday. //-- //-- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 33% · No 68%View full market & trade on PolymarketHere are the latest headlines from the Middle East: Strait of Hormuz Status Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday for commercial shipping during a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon (BN) (BN) Iran swiftly reversed course on Saturday morning, reimposing restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iran-linked shipping (AP) (SMP) (WSJ) Iranian forces announced control over the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous status under strict Iranian administration and supervision (NS8) (AFP) Some 20 ships lining up to cross the Strait of Hormuz were turning back toward Oman after Iran's military said the waterway was closed again (WSJ) Shipping Activity A convoy of eight tankers was crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, comprising one very large crude oil carrier, several oil product and chemical tankers and LPG carriers (NS8) Four tankers loaded with Qatari LNG within the Persian Gulf moved toward Hormuz in the last 12 hours, with no loaded LNG shipment having exited the Gulf since late February (BN) More crude oil and gas carriers began testing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday despite mixed messages from Iranian authorities (BN) US-Iran Negotiations Iran has not yet agreed to a next round of negotiations with the US due to Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade and excessive US demands (BV) Trump said a deal with Iran to end the seven-week war may be imminent, claiming most main points are finalized (BN) (BN) Trump claimed Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, though Iran’s Foreign Ministry said enriched uranium won’t be transferred anywhere under any circumstances (BN) (BN) Market Activity Strait To New Record Highs: Hormuz Hopes Spark Risk-On Wrecking Ball Across Markets Inverse Fear Is Taking Over The Market Friday's US-Iran Wrap Iran Bats Down 'Baseless' Trump Claim On Handing Over Enriched Uranium To US, As He Declares Hormuz 'Never Again' Closed * * * Top Sellers at ZeroHedge Store (week of 4/13) IQ Ultimate Omega 3 - 5:1 DHA to EPA Ratio For Brain & Eye Health GMO-Free Heirloom Seed Vault - 39 Varieties - 4,500 Seeds IQ Brain Rescue - Daily basic for ongoing brain support Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 11:45

— NY State Loses $73 Million In Federal Highway Funding Over Failed CDL Revocations

 

at 4/18/26 9:40am

NY State Loses $73 Million In Federal Highway Funding Over Failed CDL Revocations Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness, Over $73 million in federal highway funds are being withheld from New York state after an audit found more than half the state’s commercial drivers licenses (CDL) were issued to foreigners illegally. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced yesterday that the state failed to revoke “illegally issued nondomiciled commercial learner’s permits and commercial driver’s licenses.” According to a December press release from the U.S. Dept. of Transportation, a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) nationwide audit of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) uncovered a shocking 53 percent failure rate in the records sampled, indicating serious problems in New York’s CDL program. Among the failures documented were New York DMV systems defaulting to issuing eight-year licenses to foreign drivers for non-REAL ID licenses, regardless of when their legal status expired, and the state issuing commercial licenses to foreign drivers without providing any evidence that it had verified their current lawful presence in the United States. Just the News reports that Derek Barrs, administrator of the motor carrier administration, stated, “FMCSA’s mission is safety. That means ensuring that every commercial driver on the road is properly vetted and qualified. New York’s continued refusal to fix these failures undermines that mission, and we will not allow federal dollars to support a system that falls short of the law.” Duffy told Fox News that the Dept. of Transportation has documented licenses and permits being issued to commercial truck drivers who are unskilled, putting American families at risk. In December, Duffy gave the state of New York 30 days to get in compliance, warning state officials that, “When more than half of the licenses reviewed were issued illegally, it isn’t just a mistake—it is a dereliction of duty by state leadership. Gov. Hochul must immediately revoke these illegally issued licenses.” Just the News reports that with the forfeiture of nearly $74 million in funding, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration is losing 4 percent of its National Highway Performance Program and Surface Transportation Program Block Grant Funds. Duffy, in a post on X, posed the question of whether pulling federal funding from non-compliant states worked before responding, “Just ask Gavin Newsom,” referring to how California revoked more than 17,000 licenses issued to undocumented people after the DOT pulled over $160 million in federal funding from the state. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 11:40

— Former AI SPAC Executives Indicted For Fabricating "Virtually All" Revenue And Customers

 

at 4/18/26 9:05am

Former AI SPAC Executives Indicted For Fabricating "Virtually All" Revenue And Customers What looked like a booming AI company was, prosecutors say, an audacious house of cards built on deception. iLearningEngines (former stock symbol AILE) executives allegedly fabricated virtually every pillar of their business—customers, revenues, and contracts—to cash in on the AI hype and dupe both everyday investors and major institutions. The scheme involved creating entire fake client ecosystems: shell companies with polished websites, insiders or relatives posing as corporate executives, and bogus multimillion-dollar agreements designed to withstand scrutiny, according to a DOJ press release. As U.S. Attorney Joseph Nocella put it, the company’s pitch of AI innovation masked something far more fraudulent: “the truly artificial part of the defendants’ story was iLearning’s customers and revenues.” The scale of the alleged deception was staggering. The company reported soaring growth—claiming revenues that reached hundreds of millions—while prosecutors say those figures were largely invented. According to the indictment, executives inflated results through an “intricate web of sham contracts,” many supposedly worth tens of millions annually, all designed to convince investors the business was thriving. In reality, the operation functioned less like a tech company and more like a carefully staged illusion meant to unlock funding and drive up valuation. Behind the scenes, the mechanics of the fraud were brazen. Prosecutors say executives orchestrated “round-trip” transactions exceeding $144 million, secretly funneling investor and lender funds through fake customer accounts and then back into the company to simulate real revenue. According to the DOJ press release, associates even opened bank accounts in the names of nonexistent clients to keep the money moving and the illusion alive. This circular flow of cash allowed the company to falsely appear profitable while relying entirely on outside funding. When scrutiny finally intensified, the alleged response was not to come clean—but to double down. Executives allegedly lied repeatedly to auditors, investors, and lenders, and even coached others to back up the false story. “Our Office is committed to protecting investors and holding accountable corporate executives who undermine the integrity of our financial markets for personal gain,” Nocella said. The scheme ultimately unraveled after a critical report by Hindenburg Research triggered a stock collapse, erasing massive value and pushing the company into bankruptcy—by which point insiders had already walked away with millions, leaving investors with devastating losses. Back in 2024, Hindenburg Research alleged that the artificial intelligence company had "artificial partners and artificial revenue". The firm headed by Nathan Anderson said that iLearningEngines "was borderline insolvent when it merged with a desperate SPAC sponsor that was quickly running out of time to get a deal done." The report focuses on an unnamed "Technology Partner" crucial to AILE's business, stating "nearly all of company’s revenue and expenses (~96% of revenue and ~100% of CoGs in 2022) seem to be run through an undisclosed related party, an unnamed 'Technology Partner'." The company then told the SEC the technology partner was not a related party in a comment letter, Hindenburg says. It alleges that it "unmasked" the partner to be a related party...one which, at one point, shared a listed address with AILE's CEO's home residence.  "We believe the majority of iLearningEngines’ revenue doesn’t exist, and that its relationship with the mystery 'Technology Partner' is merely a conduit for falsifying its financials. We do not expect it will remain a public company for long," the short seller wrote. Hindenburg published the AILE report the same week it wrote on Super Micro Computer, which saw its co-founder arrested last month. It looks like even though the short seller is now defunct, its work is still having an impact. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 11:05

— The Architecture Of Abundance: How Bitcoin Reveals The Truth Of Time And Technology

 

at 4/18/26 8:30am

The Architecture Of Abundance: How Bitcoin Reveals The Truth Of Time And Technology Authored by Sylvain Saurel via 'In Bitcoin We Trust' Substack, How escaping the fiat illusion and holding the world's hardest money turns the relentless march of technology into unprecedented purchasing power. Look closely at the image below: On the left, two standard Papa John’s pizzas, purchased in 2010 for the seemingly arbitrary sum of 10,000 Bitcoin. On the right, a colossal supertanker cutting through the ocean, a leviathan of modern engineering carrying millions of barrels of crude oil - the literal lifeblood of the global industrial economy. Today, a mere 26 Bitcoin commands this staggering vessel of kinetic energy. If we run the mathematics of this evolution, the implications are paradigm-shattering. In a span of roughly a decade and a half, the purchasing power of that original 10,000 Bitcoins has metamorphosed from two boxes of delivered fast food into the equivalent of 384 supertankers of oil. This image is not merely a meme or a historical curiosity; it is the most perfect, succinct encapsulation of what Bitcoin actually is. It is a visual representation of economic truth. Yet, when the world discusses Bitcoin, the conversation is almost universally dominated by the chaotic noise of short-term price action. Pundits obsess over hourly charts, quarterly earnings, regulatory whispers, and the cyclical volatility of a nascent asset finding its sea legs. But zooming out to observe the macroeconomic horizon across sixteen years reveals a profound narrative about time, technology, and the very nature of human energy. To understand Bitcoin, we must stop looking at what it does in a week and start looking at what it does across an epoch. We must understand why patience is the ultimate economic virtue, why technology demands abundance, and why our current fiat money system is fundamentally designed to steal that abundance from us. The Tyranny of the Short-Term and the Power of 2042 Human beings are biologically wired for high time preference. Our evolutionary ancestors survived by prioritizing immediate caloric intake and immediate safety over abstract, long-term planning. Today, this biological vestige manifests in our financial behaviors. We want immediate returns. We want the “get rich quick” button. Nobody wants to wait; nobody wants to endure the discomfort of delayed gratification. When you look at the leap from two pizzas to 384 supertankers, you are looking at the unparalleled reward of a low time preference. You are witnessing the mathematics of holding the hardest money ever engineered by humanity. Imagine, for a moment, the year 2042. If the purchasing power of this decentralized network can scale from melted cheese and pepperoni to global energy armadas in a mere 16 years, what will a single Bitcoin command in another two decades? What entire industries, infrastructures, or technological marvels will be priced in fractions of a single coin? Most people cannot fathom this reality because their economic worldview is constrained by the immediate present. The volatility of the short-term timeframe shakes out those who lack conviction. But the fundamental point of Bitcoin is intrinsically linked to time: the longer you hold it, the more you gain from it. This is not a speculative guarantee based on finding a “greater fool” to buy your bags; it is a mathematical inevitability aligned with the deepest truths of technological advancement. Technology’s Unyielding Mandate: The Deflation of Marginal Cost To grasp why Bitcoin’s purchasing power aggressively expands over time, we must first understand the fundamental nature of technology. What is technology, at its core? It is the process of doing more with less. From the invention of the wheel to the printing press, the steam engine, the microchip, and now artificial intelligence, every technological leap shares a singular, unifying characteristic: it drives the marginal cost of production toward zero. When a farmer transitions from a horse-drawn plow to a mechanized tractor, the caloric energy and time required to harvest a field plummet, while the yield skyrockets. When telecommunications shifted from laying copper cables across oceans to bouncing signals off satellites and routing data through fiber optics, the cost of communicating with someone on the other side of the planet fell from dollars per minute to fractions of a cent. Today, software and AI are eating the world, automating cognitive labor and optimizing supply chains with ruthless efficiency. The natural consequence of this technological march is abundance. As it becomes cheaper, faster, and easier to produce food, energy, housing, information, and manufactured goods, the prices of these goods should fall dramatically. Deflation—the decrease in the general price level of goods and services—is the natural, logical, and inevitable byproduct of a technologically advancing civilization. As time elapses, technology advances. As technology advances, it births abundance. And that abundance should rightfully be delivered to humanity in the form of consistently lower prices, requiring us to work less to secure our basic needs, thereby freeing human time and capital for higher-order pursuits. This is exactly what has happened when we measure the global economy in Bitcoin. The price of everything in the economy is significantly lower in BTC terms than it was a decade ago. Whether you are pricing real estate, the S&P 500, a gallon of milk, or a supertanker of oil, the chart denominating these assets in Bitcoin trends aggressively downward. Bitcoin accurately captures the deflationary dividend of technological progress. So, if technology is making everything cheaper to produce, why does life feel more expensive than ever? The Fiat Illusion: Manufacturing the Energy of Scarcity The reason our grocery bills are soaring, housing has become unaffordable for a younger generation, and the cost of living feels like an ever-accelerating treadmill is not because technology has failed us. It is because our money is broken. We operate on a fiat currency standard—money decreed by governments, backed by nothing but the threat of force and the promise of future taxation. More importantly, it is a debt-based monetary system. In a fiat system, money is created when debt is issued. In order for this colossal architecture of global debt to survive without collapsing into a deflationary depression, central banks and governments are mathematically forced to constantly expand the money supply. They must inflate. Inflation is not a bug of the fiat system; it is its foundational feature. The fiat system requires the continuous debasement of currency to service ever-expanding sovereign debts. This requirement for inflation is a silent, insidious thief. It systematically robs humanity of the lower prices that should rightfully be ours due to technological advancement. Imagine a world where human ingenuity reduces the cost to produce a good by 5%, but the central bank inflates the money supply by 7%. The price on the shelf goes up by 2%. The consumer falsely believes the good has become more expensive to create, completely blind to the fact that their money has simply become vastly weaker. The technological dividend—the 5% savings—was siphoned away by the creators of the currency. Because fiat money relentlessly loses its purchasing power, it traps humanity in a perpetual rat race. We are forced to sprint at full capacity simply to maintain our current standard of living. Instead of receiving the abundance our technology produces, we are force-fed the energy of scarcity. We are alienated from the fruits of our collective innovation, living in a hyper-financialized world where citizens must become amateur hedge fund managers just to protect their life savings from melting away. Bitcoin: The Denominator of Truth Bitcoin stands in stark defiance of this systemic theft. It is an incorruptible ledger, a closed thermodynamic system of money with an absolutely scarce, unforgeable supply cap of 21 million coins. No central bank can print more to bail out failing institutions. No politician can expand their supply to fund a war. No committee can alter its monetary policy to service unpayable debts. Because its supply is fixed and immune to manipulation, Bitcoin acts as a perfect measuring stick for the global economy. It is simply money that accurately prices the truth of technological advancement. When you hold fiat currency, you are holding a leaky bucket. When you hold Bitcoin, you are holding an asset that acts as a sponge, eagerly absorbing the deflationary abundance generated by human innovation. As technological advances lower the cost of producing goods and services, and the supply of Bitcoin remains immutably fixed, the purchasing power of your Bitcoin inevitably rises. As Bitcoin holders, we cease to be the victims of hidden inflation taxes. Instead, we become the direct beneficiaries of technological abundance. We capture that abundance in the form of exponentially greater purchasing power. The transformation of a 10,000 BTC stack from two pizzas to a fleet of supertankers is not a glitch; it is the correct mathematical repricing of the world against a true, unmanipulated denominator. The Long-Term Horizon: Where Truth Resides Both of these realities—the magnificent deflationary power of technology and the absolute scarcity of Bitcoin—take time to fully manifest. In the short term, markets are emotional. They are driven by leverage, news cycles, panic, greed, regulatory saber-rattling, and the sheer noise of human behavioral psychology. Over a timeframe of weeks or months, Bitcoin’s price in fiat terms can fluctuate wildly, leading critics to dismiss it as a volatile speculative toy. But true economic reality cannot be judged in the span of a fiscal quarter. The truth of money, value, and human progress is only revealed over longer time horizons. Time acts as a filter, stripping away the irrational noise of the day-to-day market and leaving only the undeniable, structural signal. Over a 16-year timeframe, the volatility smooths out, and the undeniable truth emerges: fiat money trends toward zero, while structurally sound money trends toward infinity in purchasing power. We rely on money to communicate value across space and time. When our money is manipulated, the communication is corrupted. It lies to us about what is scarce, what is valuable, and what our time is worth. Bitcoin is money that reflects reality. It provides perfect information. We cannot ask for anything more from our money than to tell us the truth. And the truth, eventually, is unstoppable. As the Buddha profoundly observed: “Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.” The fiat system relies on obscurity, complexity, and a lack of public understanding to maintain its illusion. Bitcoin relies on open-source code, verifiable math, and total transparency. Every ten minutes, a new block is mined, and the network shouts its truth to the world. It takes time for society to recognize this shift. It takes time for the legacy systems to crack under the weight of their own debt and for the populace to seek a lifeboat. But time is the ultimate ally of the honest ledger. As Leonardo da Vinci wisely noted: “Time is the daughter of truth.” The longer Bitcoin survives, the longer it processes blocks without fail, the deeper its roots grow into the global financial infrastructure. Every passing year is a testament to its resilience and its necessity. In the end, the transition from a debt-based system of manufactured scarcity to a mathematically sound system of technological abundance is not just an economic imperative; it is a moral one. The legacy financial world may fight it, central bankers may scoff at it, and the impatience of the masses may momentarily dismiss it. But the historical trajectory is set. To borrow the words of Winston Churchill: “The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.” There it is: 10,000 Bitcoin for two pizzas in 2010. 26 Bitcoin for a supertanker today. A world of infinite technological abundance is waiting for us in 2042. The only question that remains is whether you have the patience, the conviction, and the low time preference to step out of the illusion of scarcity and hold the truth. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 10:30

— "Looking For Lifeline": Spirit Airlines Asks Trump Admin For Emergency Bailout

 

at 4/18/26 7:55am

"Looking For Lifeline": Spirit Airlines Asks Trump Admin For Emergency Bailout Bankrupt Spirit Airlines appears to be flying on fumes, with a late Friday report indicating the budget carrier has become so desperate for cash that it has approached the Trump administration for an emergency bailout, even as creditors mull pulling the plug at any moment. Aviation news website The Air Current reports that Spirit has asked the Trump administration for "hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency funding" to offset the surge in jet fuel costs that have pushed the carrier even closer to "possible liquidation." The report was based on multiple accounts from individuals familiar with the situation. In a separate report, CBS News also confirmed through its sources that "Spirit is looking for a lifeline" and that creditors are questioning whether the airline can meet future multimillion-dollar debt payments due to surging jet fuel costs. The airline had been aiming to exit its second bankruptcy since 2024 by this summer, but the U.S.-Iran conflict spiked jet fuel prices so quickly that it appears the airline had limited hedging in place to offset the surge. Side note: The best-hedged airline amid the jet fuel turmoil has been Delta Air Lines, the only U.S. carrier to operate a refinery. Spirit executives and other budget carriers are expected to meet with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy next week. "Spirit is flying on financial fumes," airline industry analyst Henry Harteveldt told CBS News on Wednesday. CNBC and Bloomberg warned earlier this week that Spirit's "risk of liquidation" was elevated. Harteveldt warned that Spirit's operations could cease if enough creditors decide to pull the plug. By late week, jet fuel prices had fallen, and airline stocks soared on news that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Meanwhile, UBS analysts called for a possible bottom in airline stocks (read the report) in mid-March.  For years, Spirit was a profit machine, but the pandemic, combined with the failed $3.8 billion merger with JetBlue due to a Biden-era federal court ruling, left the budget carrier in financial straits Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 09:55

— The Democrats' National Popular Vote Push Is About Fear, Not Fairness

 

at 4/18/26 7:20am

The Democrats' National Popular Vote Push Is About Fear, Not Fairness Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law this week, adding her state's 13 electoral votes to a growing coalition that wants to effectively render the Electoral College a ceremonial relic. The move is strategically transparent, and it tells you almost everything you need to know about the Democratic Party's relationship with electoral math right now. The compact now covers 18 states and the District of Columbia, totaling 222 electoral votes - 82% of the 270-vote threshold required to trigger the agreement. When that threshold is crossed, every member state would be obligated to award its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of how its own residents voted.  Democrats lead every single state that has signed the compact.  The stated rationale has always been simple: twice in the modern era, a Republican won the presidency despite losing the popular vote: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. Democrats argued the system was undemocratic, a quirk of 18th-century compromise that distorted the popular will. Even though Bush and Trump both went on to win the national popular vote in their second terms, the compact's momentum has not waned. If anything, the push has accelerated - which reveals the real motivation behind it.  Democrats are staring at a demographic and geographic clock, and they don't like what it's telling them. Fox News projects the party could lose up to 14 net Electoral College seats following the 2030 Census, as population shifts continue favoring red states. Florida is projected to gain 2 electoral votes, Texas 3, Idaho and Utah 1 each. California stands to lose 3, Illinois 2, New York and Rhode Island 1 apiece.  ? MASSIVE: Democrats are staring down a devastating Electoral College loss of possibly 14 NET SEATS in the coming 2030 Census This will SEVERELY constrain their ability to win the House and Presidency FL: +2 TX: +3 ID: +1 UT: +1 CA: -3 NY: -1 IL: -2 RI: -1 Don't count… pic.twitter.com/ez7js1apGo — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 16, 2026 The compact, in this light, is less a principled stand for democratic purity and more a preemptive strike - an attempt to erase projected Republican gains before the new maps are even drawn. The Virginia case is a useful illustration of how the compact actually works in practice - and how disconnected its logic has become from its stated ideals. Virginia voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Under the compact, all 13 of its electoral votes would have gone to Trump, who won the national popular vote. Run that math based on the current compact membership, and Trump would have won the 2024 election 533-5 under the very system Democrats are fighting to implement.  There's a structural argument for the Electoral College that gets less attention than it deserves: federalism works. The current system forces campaigns to engage with the regional particularities of states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Mexico. Candidates have to build broad coalitions that speak to a range of economic, cultural, and geographic interests — not just run up the score in population centers. Election integrity is another dimension the compact's proponents prefer not to discuss in detail. The Electoral College system actually contains and isolates fraud risk because manipulating a presidential outcome requires coordinating across multiple jurisdictions. That’s a significantly harder logistical undertaking.  But, under a national popular vote, that calculation changes. Every fraudulent vote, wherever it's cast, flows directly into the national tally. Padding a safely partisan state that currently has no effect on outcomes suddenly becomes a worthwhile project for bad actors. The compact also creates a sovereignty problem that its advocates haven't resolved. A state that invests in election security - tightening voter ID requirements, maintaining clean voter rolls, restricting mail-in balloting - could still have its presidential outcome determined by the looser practices of another member state. Voters in one jurisdiction effectively inherit the election administration decisions of every other. It's a framework that rewards the lowest common denominator. The Electoral College system was a genius invention by the Founding Fathers that has stood the test of time, while the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a proposal shaped by electoral anxiety, not democratic principle. * * * Top Sellers at ZeroHedge Store (week of 4/13) IQ Ultimate Omega 3 - 5:1 DHA to EPA Ratio For Brain & Eye Health GMO-Free Heirloom Seed Vault - 39 Varieties - 4,500 Seeds IQ Brain Rescue - Daily basic for ongoing brain support Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 09:20

— Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

 

at 4/18/26 6:45am

Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4 In Goldman's first-quarter "Nicotine Nuggets" survey of retailers and wholesalers covering roughly 44,000 U.S. stores, or about 28% of all tobacco outlets nationwide, analysts observed that once the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline hit the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level, the squeeze on consumers began to emerge. One of the clearest signs of stress was a downshift in purchases as budget-conscious consumers started pulling back on tobacco purchases or, in some cases, trading down.  "The outlook remains cautious but retailers & wholesalers generally see the environment as stable despite ongoing concerns on the consumer and recent pressure from higher gas prices," Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman, wrote in a note on Friday morning.  According to the survey, 58% of respondents said consumer behavior had noticeably changed once 87-octane gasoline prices at the pump crossed the $4 threshold, while another 26% said they have not seen changes yet but expect them if prices remain elevated. The biggest changes cited were consumers downtrading in stores, buying less fuel, and purchasing less overall inside stores. Some retailers also reported fewer trips, weaker inside sales, and more "splash and go" visits at the pump, where customers buy smaller amounts of fuel and skip in-store purchases. She said, "Downtrading was strong in Q1, as roughly 80% of respondents indicated that deep-discount cigarettes gained share." Main points of the survey: Specific changes in behavior noted included consumers purchasing less in stores (indicated by 32% of respondents), downtrading in stores (47%), downtrading at the gas pump (11%), driving less (16%), and purchasing less fuel (37%). Multiple respondents noted seeing fewer customer trips to stores as a result of their higher retail fuel prices (with one noting higher basket sizes as a result of trip consolidation), along with overall lower levels for inside-store sales. One respondent pointed to considerable pressure on the consumer buying at budgeted dollar increments (a rapidly growing consumer segment), which naturally purchases less fuel as the price increases. Negatively, one retailer is witnessing more "splash and go" trips to the pump (fewer gallons and fewer people converting to inside sales). That said, the retailer also sees a shift in consumer behavior toward value, which has been a benefit to the nicotine pouch category in this regard, as higher engagement with fuel reward promos has led to category sales - with VELO Plus sales for the retailer up 20%+ in the last three weeks. Herzog and her team "remain cautious on the U.S. tobacco/nicotine industry near-term given continued cig volume declines in Q1 and pressures on the tobacco consumer as a result of the inflationary backdrop and recently higher gas prices, although we see continued robust growth for the nicotine pouch category." The "Nicotine Nuggets" report underscores just why politicians are so sensitive to surging gasoline prices: once fuel prices spike, cash-strapped consumers are forced into difficult trade-offs, whether that means buying less gas or diesel, cutting back elsewhere, or, in some cases, trading down in tobacco products. Late last year, Herzog told clients, "Buy nicotine, energy drink, and candy stocks." Professional subscribers can read the "Nicotine Nuggets" note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.  Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 08:45

— Iranian Gunboats Open Fire On Tanker As Hormuz Closure Sparks Maritime Chaos

 

at 4/18/26 6:26am

Iranian Gunboats Open Fire On Tanker As Hormuz Closure Sparks Maritime Chaos Summary:  Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman Friday: Hormuz Open; Saturday: Hormuz Closed  Iranian Forces Open Fire On Tanker  The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports that a tanker was "approached by 2 IRGC gunboats, with no VHF challenge, and then fired upon." UKMTO did not provide any further details about the two Iranian vessels that fired on the tanker or the type of weapons used in the maritime incident, which was reported to have occurred 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman. Assume that President Trump is about to become absolutely furious on Truth Social. One can also assume that backchanneling and behind-the-scenes talks are not going well if an incident like this occurred ahead of the U.S.-Iran weekend negotiations. Hormuz Closed (Again)  The Trump administration’s "baffle 'em with bullshit" methodology has been on full display, as the reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint on Friday drove a broad risk-on in markets: US equities soared, crude collapsed, and Treasury yields declined, based on the assumption that disruption to global energy flows had eased. However, as of early Saturday morning, those moves may prove premature. The Wall Street Journal reports that the world’s most important maritime chokepoint is once again closed to commercial transit. About 20 ships waiting to enter the Persian Gulf through the maritime chokepoint have turned back toward Oman after Iran’s military declared the waterway closed again, amid a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. And rejected: the two tankers taking the neutral route, Minerva Evropi and Nissos Keros, have turned around; the Sanmar Herald which appears to be taking the Iran-sanctioned Larak island route is proceeding. https://t.co/aceBI7ki0B pic.twitter.com/gmkM37iA1U — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 18, 2026 The OSINT community on X is reporting a Hormuz closure as well...  A bit of chaos in Hormuz this morning as nearly all of the outbound tankers have abruptly turned around. Follows an announcement by Iranian military leadership that the Strait has "reverted to its previous state of strict military control." pic.twitter.com/XSc6lvxwJo — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026 MERCHANT VESSELS RECEIVE RADIO MESSAGE FROM IRANIAN NAVY SAYING STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHUT AGAIN, NO SHIPS ARE ALLOWED TO PASS THROUGH, SHIPPING SOURCES SAY — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 18, 2026 The vessels had reportedly been prepared to pay $2 million in tolls to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to pass through, but radio warnings indicated the strait was closed. WSJ notes: They are now turning back because the Revolutionary Guards are sending radio messages that the strait is closed, according to one Hong Kong owner with a container ship waiting to transit the strait. Overnight, Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X that President Trump's "false" claims won't help in US-Iran negotiations... The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either. With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be conducted based on the "designated route" and with "Iranian authorization." Whether the Strait is open or closed and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, not by social media. Media warfare and engineering public opinion are an important part of war, and the Iranian nation is not affected by these tricks. Read the real and accurate news of the negotiations in the recent interview of the Foreign Ministry spokesman. Earlier, President Trump said peace talks with Iran are making progress and will continue over the weekend.   “We had some pretty good news 20 minutes ago, but it seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran,” Trump told reporters traveling to Washington on Air Force One, according to MS Now. “We’ll know over a little period of time. We’re negotiating over the weekend.” Trump said one main issue is recovering material from Iran’s nuclear program, which he said the U.S. would remove after any agreement is signed. “Maybe I won’t extend it, but the blockade is going to remain. But maybe I won’t extend it, so you have a blockade, and unfortunately, we’ll have to start dropping bombs again,” Trump said. Polymarket odds of the Hormuz chokepoint returning to normal status by the end of April have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last 24 hours, peaking at 64% on Friday morning after Iran announced the waterway was open, but dropping to 32% following Iran's announcement that the maritime chokepoint was closed early Saturday. //-- //-- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 33% · No 68%View full market & trade on PolymarketHere are the latest headlines from the Middle East: Strait of Hormuz Status Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday for commercial shipping during a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon (BN) (BN) Iran swiftly reversed course on Saturday morning, reimposing restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iran-linked shipping (AP) (SMP) (WSJ) Iranian forces announced control over the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous status under strict Iranian administration and supervision (NS8) (AFP) Some 20 ships lining up to cross the Strait of Hormuz were turning back toward Oman after Iran's military said the waterway was closed again (WSJ) Shipping Activity A convoy of eight tankers was crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, comprising one very large crude oil carrier, several oil product and chemical tankers and LPG carriers (NS8) Four tankers loaded with Qatari LNG within the Persian Gulf moved toward Hormuz in the last 12 hours, with no loaded LNG shipment having exited the Gulf since late February (BN) More crude oil and gas carriers began testing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday despite mixed messages from Iranian authorities (BN) US-Iran Negotiations Iran has not yet agreed to a next round of negotiations with the US due to Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade and excessive US demands (BV) Trump said a deal with Iran to end the seven-week war may be imminent, claiming most main points are finalized (BN) (BN) Trump claimed Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, though Iran’s Foreign Ministry said enriched uranium won’t be transferred anywhere under any circumstances (BN) (BN) Market Activity Strait To New Record Highs: Hormuz Hopes Spark Risk-On Wrecking Ball Across Markets Inverse Fear Is Taking Over The Market Friday's US-Iran Wrap Iran Bats Down 'Baseless' Trump Claim On Handing Over Enriched Uranium To US, As He Declares Hormuz 'Never Again' Closed Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 08:26

— Spain Erupts: Patriots Attacked By Socialist Mob Over Mass Illegal Migrant Amnesty

 

at 4/18/26 6:10am

Spain Erupts: Patriots Attacked By Socialist Mob Over Mass Illegal Migrant Amnesty Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Violence broke out in the Spanish city of Granada when roughly 40 left-wing Antifa extremists tried to shut down a pre-election rally held by the nationalist party Vox in Plaza de las Pasiegas. Police had to form a cordon between the rival groups as fights broke out, delaying the event by around 30 minutes. Vox leader Santiago Abascal refused to start the rally until the disruptors were removed. He stepped down from the platform, walked toward the rival group with supporters, and crowds chanted “Out, out!” as tensions spilled over. Abascal directly accused authorities of failing to protect free speech, stating: “They are preventing us from carrying out this act freely.” He went further, blaming the unrest on the very politicians who enabled it: “They are the ones who put Sánchez in La Moncloa.” Footage shows red paint thrown at attendees, shouting matches, and police struggling to keep the sides apart. Smaller groups of protesters reappeared near the square after the rally began, mobilized via social media. Violence erupts in Spanish city days after controversial plan to grant amnesty to 500,000 migrants Clashes broke out in Granada’s Plaza de las Pasiegas between right-wing Vox supporters and left-wing activists. Around 40 left-wing protesters tried to disrupt a Vox rally,… pic.twitter.com/1VfeHsamIB — G R I F T Y (@GriftReport) April 17, 2026 The clashes come just days after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s socialist government approved plans to grant legal status, jobs, and benefits to around 500,000 migrants — with analysts warning the real number could hit 800,000. As we reported earlier, this triggered immediate chaos at consulates across Spain, where thousands of migrants swarmed to submit paperwork: Endless queues snaked through streets in cities like Almería, Bilbao, and Madrid. Migrants clambered over security gates. Immigration offices are now threatening strikes, overwhelmed by the sudden flood with only a handful of staff handling applications that were farmed out to post offices and NGOs. Vox has hammered the policy as an “invasion” accelerated by Sánchez. The Granada rally turned into a flashpoint for that anger, with party figures accusing the government of promoting demographic replacement while the opposition People’s Party offered little resistance. This is the direct result of Sánchez’s open-borders experiment, which prioritizes globalist virtue-signaling over Spanish citizens’ safety and cohesion. While the left screams about “fascism,” it is their own policies that are turning Spanish streets into battlegrounds between patriots demanding borders and radicals defending unlimited migration. The amnesty is already facing a serious legal challenge that could freeze the entire process. The Spanish legal group Hazte Oír has taken the royal decree to the Supreme Court, which accepted the case and gave the government just 20 days to justify bypassing parliament: Lawyers argue there was no “extraordinary and urgent need” for a decree instead of normal legislation, warning of irreversible damage to public services, housing, and social cohesion. A precautionary suspension is on the table — meaning the flood of new legal residents could be halted before it becomes impossible to reverse. Abascal has been blunt about what comes next if the courts fail to act: “These are the lines to manage mass regularization in each municipality of Spain. Tomorrow this chaos will move to the health centers, to the social services, to the real estate agencies… It’s called thirdworldization. It’s already happening. Our priority is to reverse it, radically.” Sánchez, meanwhile, calls the giveaway “an act of justice” and “a necessity,” claiming it simply recognizes migrants who “already form part of our everyday lives.” Critics point out Spain has run multiple amnesties since 1986 with over 1.75 million permits issued — yet illegal entries and integration failures continue unabated. The left’s response to pushback is always the same: label patriots as extremists while their policies import the very tensions now exploding. Spain stands at a crossroads. Either the courts step in and the people demand sanity, or the socialist experiment will turn one of Europe’s great nations into a cautionary tale of what happens when globalism overrides national survival. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 08:10

— Ukraine Urges Israel To Act Against Russian Ship Carrying 'Stolen' Grain To Haifa Port

 

at 4/18/26 5:50am

Ukraine Urges Israel To Act Against Russian Ship Carrying 'Stolen' Grain To Haifa Port Ukraine is pushing Israel to seize a grain shipment it says was looted from Russian-occupied territory as the war persists in the east. At the moment it does not appear that Israel complied with any interdict of the vessel, also as reports say the cargo is already offloaded and gone. via MarineTraffic Ukraine's government flagged the Russian vessel ABINSK, docking at Haifa, as part of Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet, alleging that it is tied to operations used to "illegally export, transport, and sell stolen Ukrainian grain" and bankroll Moscow's war effort. The saga has been featured in Ukrainian media, which says that despite a formal government-to-government request, Israeli authorities didn't stop the shipment. Some 43,765 tonnes of wheat - loaded at Russia’s Kavkaz port and believed to originate from Ukrainian regions controlled by the Russian military - was allowed to be unloaded. Ukraine is still expressing hope for "fruitful and constructive interaction" between both sides, with its embassy in contact with Israeli officials, but Tel Aviv does not appear to be as eager to intervene. According to some further details in Le Monde: On April 12, it was permitted to dock in Haifa, where it may have unloaded its cargo, valued at about €8.5 million at current wheat prices. The Abinsk then left Haifa the same day, heading for the Dardanelles Strait with the Turkish port of Çanakkale listed as its next stop, according to Marinetraffic.com, a vessel-tracking website. The Russian bulk carrier reportedly loaded its cargo at the port of Kavkaz on the Kerch Strait, which separates the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea and links the Russian Federation to Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, according to Ukrainian investigative journalist Kateryna Yaresko, who works for the SeaKrime project at Myrotvorets, an online collaborative platform listing "enemies of Ukraine." At a moment the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, and global shipping is feeling the disruption, the Israelis are unlikely to get too trigger happy when it comes to further disrupting trade - even if it comes from Russia or is in a 'gray area'.  As for Ukraine and Israel, the two countries' relations has lately improved given the two can find common cause in opposing Iran. President Zelensky has meanwhile been touting drone sales to US allies in the Gulf of late too. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 07:50

— The EU's Digital Gulag Is (Apparently) Ready To Roll

 

at 4/18/26 5:00am

The EU's Digital Gulag Is (Apparently) Ready To Roll Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com, “It is for parents to raise their children, and not the platforms.” Those were the words of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday as she announced the readiness of the EU’s online age verification, ahem, platform. As we’ve been warning since November 2024, these platforms are ultimately a Trojan Horse for digital identity systems, which are in turn intended to serve as the cornerstone for the digital gulags being quickly assembled around the world. What gets rarely mentioned in the public debate, including in Von der Leyen’s 11-minute speech below, is the fact that online age verification inevitable traps everyone, not just minors, in its web. “Protecting the children”, however, is always a seductive pretext for launching otherwise socially unacceptable policies. And there are few more socially unacceptable policies than the controlled death of online privacy and anonymity. It is for parents to raise their children. Not platforms. The European Age Verification App is ready ↓ https://t.co/EumEPEJOI7 — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) April 15, 2026 To save readers from having to stomach Von der Leyen’s sickly sweet presentation of the European Age Verification App, here is a summary of the main points [incidentally, while listening to her address, punctuated with beaming smiles, I kept thinking of Pink Floyd’s classic tune, “Mother”, particularly the line “Momma’s gonna make all your nightmares come true”*]: The app, VdL says, is necessary to make the online world safer for children — safer from online bullying, highly addictive content, highly personalised advertising, harmful and illegal content, and grooming from online predators. VdL claims to have herself “carefully listened to the parents, who do not have proper solutions to protect their children” whose concerns she shares. “It is”, she says, “for EU institutions parents to raise their kids and not for platforms.” To protect children from the dangers of the online world, the EU needs a “harmonised approach” — in other words, a “Europe-wide technical solution for age verification.” And the good news is that the European Age Verification app is “technically ready” and will soon be “available for people to use.” VdL likened providing proof of age to access online platforms to supermarkets asking young people for ID to purchase alcoholic beverages. What she doesn’t say is that people of all ages, even adults well into retirement age, will have to provide proof of age to access online platforms. That is a major distinction that doesn’t once get mentioned. Also, once this system is in place, users would not just momentarily display their ID like one does when buying alcohol. Instead, they’d have to submit their ID to third-party companies, raising major concerns over who receives, stores, and controls that data. France, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Greece, Cyprus and Ireland are the so-called “frontrunners” in adopting the app. From the horse’s mouth: “They are planning to integrate the app into their national [digital ID] wallets and I hope more member states and private sector companies will follow, so that every citizen can use pretty soon this app.” VdL likened the age verification system to the COVID pass, which is not exactly reassuring. With another of her bone-chilling smiles, she said: “this is not the first time the Commission has come forward with an innovative solution to a new problem” that would then go on to became a template not just for EU member countries to use but also “our global partners” around the world. Which brings us to the part that merits direct quotation: “We all remember the COVID pandemic. Our world came to a complete standstill. But as we came out of the lockdowns and as vaccines were available, the Commission came up with the COVID app in record time — it was three months — to help bring us back to normal life in a safe way. With a scan of our COVID certificate — you will remember, we could go to a concert, board a plane to travel, etc, etc — 78 countries in four continents were using this app. So, it was a huge success. And now we are taking this success and applying it to the age verification app, following the same principles, following the same model. First, it was user friendly. You download the app, you set it up with your passport or ID card, you then prove your age when accessing online services. Second, it respects the highest privacy standards in the world… Third, it works on any device — phone, tablet computer, you name it. And finally, it is fully open source.” What VdL describes as a “huge success” represented an unprecedented violation of basic rights, including personal privacy and bodily autonomy. It also further centralised power in the hands of the VdL Commission. Who can forget how VdL abused that power in her vaccine negotiations with Pfizer as well as the destruction of evidence that followed? Naked Capitalism was among relatively few alternative media sites to flag the potential risks posed by the EU’s “Green Pass” on its launch in April 2021, as well as all the other digital health passes being developed by public private partnerships such as the Rockefeller Foundation’s Common Pass and ID2020’s Good Health Pass Collaborative. As we warned in our April 13, 2021 post, “7 Reasons Why a Vaccine Passport (Pass, Certificate or Whatever They Want to Call It) Should Give Us Pause“, mission creep was arguably the biggest risk of all, especially with state-controlled digital IDs and programmable central bank digital currencies already on the horizon:  The framework is unlikely to be limited to health-care information. The use of the term “digital wallet”, both by the Vaccine Collective Initiative and IBM, to refer to their different digital health passes suggests that economic activity could become an integral part of the frameworks’ functions. The developer of the Vaccine Collective Initiative’s SMART Health Cards framework at Microsoft Health, Josh C. Mandel, hinted in a recent YouTube presentation that SMART Health Cards could soon be used as IDs for commercial activity, such as renting a car. That this is all happening as central banks around the world are busily laying the foundations for central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs as they’ve come to be known, raises the specter of digital vaccine passports being used as a vehicle for the creation of a purely digital currency system to replace physical coins and notes. That’s not to say this will happen but it is a distinct possibility. If the vaccine passport does give way to a broader digital ID system, which in turn serves as the pass key for a CBDC, and cash is then eliminated, opting out will be much harder. And opting in will leave us subject to levels of surveillance and control that were heretofore unthinkable. Now, VdL is herself openly admitting that the Commission is following the exact same principles and model behind the Green Pass to create the European Age Verification App. Coordination is already ramping up at the highest levels of the EU bureaucracy to ensure that the age verification platform is rolled out as quickly and as seamlessly as possible. From Reuters: French President Emmanuel Macron will host a ​video call with other ‌EU leaders and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ​to push for a ​coordinated approach on banning social ⁠media for minors, Macron’s office ​said Tuesday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro ​Sanchez and representatives of Italy, the Netherlands and Ireland will attend ​the conference call, among ​others, on Thursday, Macron’s office said, adding ‌that ⁠the final list of attendees will be announced later. “The main goal is to ​act in ​a ⁠coordinated manner and push the European Commission, ​in the positive sense ​of ⁠the term, to move ahead at the same pace ⁠as ​member states,” a ​presidential aide told reporters. Thank you @emmanuelmacron for organising this discussion on the safety of our children online. With the DSA, we have EU-wide rules. And now we have an EU-wide app. It’s piloted in ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? And soon available to all. Online platforms are held accountable. Parents… https://t.co/PQQgZisvPP — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) April 16, 2026 A Totally Voluntary System, Apparently  The Commission has been at pains to stress that the EU Digital Identity Wallet that forms the backbone of the age verification app will be voluntary as well as safe and secure, even producing the following infographic to supposedly debunk the claim. Similar claims, of course, were made by Narenda Modi’s government before launching Aadhaar, India’s now de facto mandatory digital identity system. Since its launch over a decade and a half ago, the Indian authorities have struggled, and failed, to make Aadhaar fraud-proof. The world’s largest digital identity has suffered innumerable breaches, including one that potentially exposed the sensitive personal data of around 815 million Indian citizens. As readers may recall, the EU’s digital vaccine certificate was also marketed as “voluntary” before becoming necessary for citizens to perform even the most basic of functions in many EU member states, from travelling to working to accessing basic public services. Some countries, including Germany and Austria, even used the vaccine passport system to impose lockdowns of the unvaccinated. In its article, “EU Says EUDI Wallet Is Voluntary; Germany’s SPD Plan Says Otherwise“, Reclaim the Net outlines how the EU’s “voluntary” digital identity system can quickly become de facto mandatory through the online age verification requirements: The EU’s digital identity wallet is voluntary. That’s the official position, repeated often enough that the European Commission felt the need to label the opposite claim a “myth.” Under the eIDAS 2.0 regulation, use of the wallet is voluntary and free of charge for citizens. Nobody will be forced to download the app. Nobody will be compelled to link their government ID to a smartphone. The EU has been very clear about this. Germany is now showing everyone what “voluntary” actually means. The country’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has proposed making the EUDI Wallet the tool for accessing social media platforms, tying the proposal to an impulse paper circulated ahead of a CDU federal conference in Stuttgart. The plan creates a three-tier system. Children under 14 would face a complete ban, with platforms required to “technically prevent access.” Users aged 14 to 15 would get youth-only platform versions with restricted algorithmic features, and everyone 16 and older would need mandatory EUDI Wallet verification. That last category includes every adult in Germany. The wallet that nobody is forced to use becomes the only way to access Instagram, TikTok, or Facebook… The broader EU framework around the wallet tells its own story about where “voluntary” is heading. Under the eIDAS 2.0 regulation, all Very Large Online Platforms and companies required by law to use strong customer authentication must accept the EUDI Wallet by late 2027. The EU’s own Digital Decade target aims for 80% of citizens to use a digital ID solution by 2030, with the EUDI Wallet as the primary instrument for reaching that goal. You don’t set an 80% adoption target for something you genuinely intend to keep optional. Open Source Claims The German digital activist Michael Ballweg has described Von der Leyen’s claim that the EU’s age verification app is fully open source as “yet another typical Brussels half-truth that needs to be dissected”: The truth is: The EU Commission, under the European Digital Identity Wallet (EUDI Wallet) project, is indeed making several key components of the Age Verification Solution available as open source on GitHub. The core – that is, the app building blocks, the protocols, and the zero-knowledge technology – is publicly accessible. Member states, developers, or even third countries can adopt and adapt it all. That’s the “blueprint,” the modular system. But here’s the crucial catch, which they conveniently omit: The finished app that you later download to your phone is not centrally provided by the EU. It comes from your national government or its service providers. It is integrated into the respective national digital wallet. And these national versions aren’t automatically 100% open source, even if they’re based on EU building blocks. Some parts—especially the backend infrastructure, the servers, the connection to government databases, and specific national adaptations—can remain completely proprietary and opaque. And that’s precisely what’s dangerous. You’re presented with a nice, “privacy-friendly” frontend with zero-knowledge promises—but the real power, the control, the data flows in the background remain shrouded in mystery. Who’s really checking what’s happening with your ID cards, your devices, and your movement profiles when national authorities or their private partners operate the backend? This isn’t an open system. It’s a modular system where the important drawers remain locked. Then there’s the equally concerning question of security. Within literal minutes of the app’s launch, IT security consultants and hacktivists were already finding glaring flaws in the security architecture. The “age verification app” the EU wants to impose on the world got hacked in 2 minutes. Step 1: Present a “privacy-respecting” but hackable solution. Step 2: Get hacked (you are here). Step 3: Remove privacy to "fix" it. Result: a surveillance tool sold as “privacy-respecting”. — Pavel Durov (@durov) April 17, 2026 A tweet from International Cyber Digest: The EU’s new Age Verification app was hacked with little to no effort. When you set it up, the app asks you to create a PIN. But that PIN isn’t actually tied to the identity data it’s supposed to protect. An attacker can delete a couple of entries from a file on the phone, restart the app, pick a new PIN, and the app happily hands over the original user’s verified identity credentials as if nothing happened. It gets worse. The app’s “too many attempts” lockout is just a counter in a text file. Reset it to 0 and keep guessing. The biometric check (face/fingerprint) is a simple on/off switch in the same file. Flip it to off and the app skips it entirely. Here is a demonstration video of how the 'hack' was performed. https://t.co/GA8oC9tRtn — International Cyber Digest (@IntCyberDigest) April 16, 2026 Another major architectural flaw was flagged by a March 2026 security analysis of the app’s open-source code, reports Reclaim the Net in another article. The system’s issuer component has no way to verify that passport verification actually happened on the user’s device. The researchers who found the vulnerability noted an uncomfortable tradeoff at the heart of the design. Fixing the security gap would likely require sending full passport cryptographic data to the server, including the user’s name and document number, which would amount to a significant reduction in the privacy the system currently promises. The Commission calls this a “mini wallet.” That nickname reveals more than the branding intends. The app is built on the same technical specifications as the European Digital Identity Wallets, ensuring compatibility and future integration. A number of third party companies that manage digital age verification systems have already suffered serious data breaches, including AU10TIX, a major Israeli identity verification company, as well as one of the vendors used by leading gaming platform Discord. Discord says a vendor breach exposed user data: names, emails, IP logs, billing info, and even some government IDs. The attacker wanted ransom, but the real story is this: once platforms collect official IDs, the risk is permanent. Governments keep pushing online ID mandates.… https://t.co/G0fKHcXVXS — Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) October 4, 2025 That didn’t stop Discord from proceeding with plans to require a bio-metric face scan or ID verification for full access to the site. A reminder that this is the same Discord that suffered a data-breach last October where some 70,000 images were exposed. https://t.co/3ACqfN8a2C — STOPCOMMONPASS ? (@org_scp) February 9, 2026 It’s not just alternative media that are warning of the risks: Bank ID, Sweden’s de facto national digital ID system, was also hacked a couple of months ago. ? BankID is Sweden's defacto National Digital ID based system used across 7,500 services, including govt. ? A severe data breach has been confirmed with hackers claiming they pulled source code, user data and other internal system data. https://t.co/JxmIItDSQo — STOPCOMMONPASS ? (@org_scp) March 18, 2026 As Electronic Frontier Foundation has repeatedly warned, “online age verification is incompatible with privacy“: In the final analysis, age verification systems are surveillance systems. Mandating them forces websites to require visitors to submit information such as government-issued identification to companies like AU10TIX. Hacks and data breaches of this sensitive information are not a hypothetical concern; it is simply a matter of when the data will be exposed, as this breach shows. But that doesn’t seem to matter. After Australia became the first Western country to roll out a full-fledged online age verification system in December, governments of all stripes are lining up to follow suit, including the UK, Turkey, Brazil, multiple states across the United States, and even the US federal government itself, where the idea appears to enjoy bipartisan support. No great surprise there. The White House AI framework calls age verification "privacy protective." There is no version of age verification that doesn't require touching sensitive personal data. And there is no version of collecting sensitive personal data at scale that isn't a breach waiting to happen... https://t.co/1v4GcNy84l — Reclaim The Net (@ReclaimTheNetHQ) March 21, 2026 In Australia, meanwhile, VPN usage is surging as Internet users, presumably of all ages but one imagines that particularly the tech-savvy youth that are supposedly the target of all this legislation, seek workarounds to the age verification requirements. This in turn has prompted speculation that Canberra may choose the nuclear option of trying to ban VPNs, just as the UK, France and other European governments have threatened to do (as we discussed here). None of this is happening in a vacuum. It is happening precisely at a time when governments across the so-called “liberal” West are resorting to increasingly intrusive and repressive measures to track and control their respective populaces. In the UK, police arrest 30 people a day for online posts, notes Silkie Carlo, the director of Big Brother Watch: “Over the past decade alone, police have racked up almost 150,000 “non-crime” hate incidents – that is, lawful speech.” The UK, like many other governments, is also making it harder to protest while punishing subjects/citizens for protesting against Israel’s genocide in Gaza. As Grayzone reported this week, “the British state is so desperate to crush these antiwar activists and preserve Israeli death factories on its soil that it is resorting to crude anti-democratic tactics and corrupting the entire jury system.” EXCLUSIVE: UK seeks to jail Palestine Action for ‘terrorism’ amid UK media blackout 6 activists could be sentenced as terrorists, facing long prison terms But the jury has not been notified about the 'terror' designation, and UK media can't report on ithttps://t.co/pbwG5JvhCo — The Grayzone (@TheGrayzoneNews) April 12, 2026 Meanwhile, Brussels and Washington are imposing what amounts to starvation blockades on prominent individuals that have dared to challenge Israel’s genocide or Gaza or question the wisdom of the EU’s actions in Ukraine. They include the UN rapporteur on the Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese, four International Criminal Court judges, the geopolitical analyst and former Swiss army colonel, Jacques Baud, and the pro-Palestinian journalist Hüseyin Dogru. Their experience has a name: “civil death”. Their assets are frozen, access to banking services are blocked and the ability to participate in the official economy is almost completely paralyzed. The sanctions are imposed without prior judicial control and those affected are not given a legal hearing before they are listed. As in Kafka’s The Trial, once you get caught in the bureaucratic vice, there is no escape; it just keeps tightening. On the one hand, governments and the corporations whose interests they serve want to digitise and tokenise everything, making us wholly dependent on digital platforms. On the other hand, they want to, and are close to, setting up internet controls governed by digital ID checkpoints that will strip away the very last vestiges of digital privacy and anonymity. These checkpoints will also allow them to block online access to anyone who is deemed a threat. This, it seems, was always the plan. In my 2022 book Scanned: Why Vaccine Passports and Digital IDs Will Mean the End of Privacy and Personal Freedom, I quoted from a 2018 World Economic Forum report that openly admitted that while verifiable identities “create new markets and business lines” for companies, they also (emphasis my own) “open up (or close off) the digital world for individuals”. Welcome to the digital gulag. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 07:00

— Kuwait Holds American Journalist After Reporting On 'Friendly Fire' Shootdown Incident

 

at 4/17/26 9:25pm

Kuwait Holds American Journalist After Reporting On 'Friendly Fire' Shootdown Incident Authored by Chris Hedges via Consortium News Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, a fearless Palestinian-American journalist (he's an American-born Kuwaiti of Palestinian descent) whose writing and reports are defined by unparalleled integrity, depth and eloquence, was arrested on March 3rd in Kuwait. He is charged with spreading false information and harming national security. His arrest took place following his reporting of the shooting down of three U.S. fighter planes by the Kuwaiti military in an act of friendly fire during the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Ahmed, along with other news outlets such as the BBC, published footage of a U.S. F-15 E Strike Eagle crashing in al-Jahra west of Kuwait City. I fear Ahmed, a graduate of Columbia Journalism School who has worked for The New York Times, PBS Frontline, Al Jazeera English, Vice on HBO, The Huffington Post and appeared on numerous news outlets including the BBC and CNN, will be charged under new, draconian security laws instituted in Kuwait, which have already led to dozens of arbitrary arrests. Kuwait has desperately tried to maintain the fiction that it did not serve as a staging area for US attacks on Iran.  The NY Times had also confirmed this week: The arrest of the journalist, Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, which Kuwaiti authorities had yet to publicly confirm, would be one of many detentions across the Persian Gulf as governments there try to repress information about local effects of the war in Iran. “It is understood that authorities have charged him with spreading false information, harming national security and misusing his mobile phone — vague and overly broad accusations that are routinely used to silence independent journalists,” the committee said in a statement. He had not posted online or been seen in public since early March, it said. His Twitter and Instagram accounts appeared to have been deleted. Iran repeatedly attacked Kuwait, including strikes on Kuwait International Airport, the Ali Al Salem Air Base, the U.S. garrison at Camp Buehring and an operations center that saw six U.S. soldiers killed and dozens wounded. Iran also attacked the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery and a Kuwaiti oil tanker. WATCH: Clear footage of a U.S. F-15E jet that was shot down over Kuwait on March 1-2 in a friendly fire incident by Kuwaiti F-18 jet. pic.twitter.com/rk1uAANWNh — Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026 France 24 broadcast a video of HIMARS missiles allegedly being fired from Kuwait into Iran. Ahmed’s reporting also undercut the lie of Kuwaiti neutrality. The Kuwaiti authorities will, I expect, for this reason, seek to turn Ahmed into an example for the rest of the press. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 23:25

— Spillover Conflict Still Raging In Iraq: Three Iranian Kurds Killed

 

at 4/17/26 9:00pm

Spillover Conflict Still Raging In Iraq: Three Iranian Kurds Killed The Iran war seems to be cooling, as a two week ceasefire holds, but people are still dying from spillover effects and sporadic conflict in neighboring Iraq. "Drone and rocket strikes in Iraq's northern Kurdistan region on Friday killed three Iranian Kurds, including two women fighters, an exiled opposition group said, blaming the attack on Iran," AFP reports. It's unclear if the projectiles were sent across the border, or whether pro-Iran groups inside Iraq carried out the killings. Illustrative: Alhurra This comes several weeks after US officials first floated the possibility of arming Iranian Kurdish dissident groups. Kurdish organizations in Iraq and along the border insisted at the time that there was no plan to receive arms and training from the US. The fear was that the US statements and avalanche of international press reports claiming a potential impending plan to use Kurds as a proxy ground force served to put a bright red target on the Kurdish community of Iran (and by extension Iraq). Indeed throughout the conflict there had been sporadic Iranian attacks on Kurdish areas, particularly in northern Iraqi Kurdistan. That appears to still be happening, with the Friday report: “The Islamic Republic of Iran launched a new wave of missile and drone strikes today targeting... civilian camps of the PDKI,” killing one person and wounding his father, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) said on X. In a separate attack, two women fighters were killed and other fighters wounded, the party added. A PDKI official told AFP the fighters were killed in an attack on their positions in the Soran area, nestled in the Zagros mountains near the Iranian border. In other Iraq-related news connected to the Iran war, the US Treasury on Friday has slapped new sanctions on a series of Shia pro-Iran militia leaders. The United States Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has targeted seven pro-Iran Iraqi militia commanders, accused of organizing and carrying out attacks against US soldiers and facilities. They are "some of Iraq's most violent Iran-aligned militia organizations," such as Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haqq, Kata'ib Hezbollah, Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, and Harakat Al-Nujaba - according to the Trump administration. "We will not allow Iraq's terrorist militias, backed by Iran, to threaten American lives or interests ... Those who enable these militias' violence will be held accountable," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 23:00

— Massive Cosmic Test Shows Newton And Einstein Still Explain Gravity Accurately

 

at 4/17/26 8:35pm

Massive Cosmic Test Shows Newton And Einstein Still Explain Gravity Accurately Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering, Scientists have tested gravity across some of the largest structures in the universe and found that it behaves exactly as predicted by long-standing physical laws. Galaxies and clusters trace gravity’s pull across the universe.iStock Photos Researchers led by University of Pennsylvania used data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope to examine how galaxy clusters move across vast cosmic distances. Their results show that gravity weakens with distance in line with the inverse-square law first described by Isaac Newton and later embedded in Albert Einstein’s theory of general relativity. The findings challenge alternative theories that suggest gravity changes at large scales and instead reinforce the idea that an unseen component, dark matter, is shaping cosmic motion. Gravity holds at scale “Astrophysics has been plagued by a massive discrepancy in the cosmic ledger,” said Patricio A. Gallardo. “When we look at how stars orbit within galaxies or how galaxies move within galaxy clusters, some appear to be traveling way too fast for the amount of visible matter they contain.” To test whether gravity itself might be responsible, the researchers analyzed subtle distortions in the cosmic microwave background as it passes through massive galaxy clusters. These distortions, caused by the motion of hot gas around clusters, allowed the team to measure how quickly clusters are moving toward each other across distances spanning hundreds of millions of light-years. The results closely matched predictions from classical and relativistic physics, showing no evidence that gravity weakens differently than expected at these scales. “It is remarkable that the law of the inverse of the squares—proposed by Newton in the 17th century and then incorporated by Einstein’s theory of general relativity—is still holding its ground in the 21st century,” said Gallardo. Dark matter case strengthens The study addresses a long-standing puzzle in cosmology. Observations have consistently shown that stars at the edges of galaxies and galaxies within clusters move faster than visible matter alone can explain. “That is the central puzzle,” Gallardo explained. “Either gravity behaves differently on very large scales, or the universe contains additional matter that we cannot directly see.” Because the new measurements confirm that gravity behaves as expected, the results strengthen the case for dark matter as the missing component. “This study strengthens the evidence that the universe contains a component of dark matter,” said Gallardo. “But we still do not know what that component is made of.” The work also places constraints on theories such as Modified Newtonian Dynamics, which attempt to explain cosmic motion by altering the laws of gravity. By extending tests of gravity to distances far beyond the scale of individual galaxies, the research provides one of the most comprehensive validations of standard cosmological models to date. Future observations using more detailed maps of the cosmic microwave background and larger galaxy surveys could further refine these measurements and test gravity with even greater precision. “With so many unanswered questions, gravity remains one of the most fascinating areas of research. It’s a naturally attractive field,” Gallardo said. The study was published in Physical Review Letters. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 22:35

— Beijing Boosts BeiDou Satellite System To Try And Compete With GPS

 

at 4/17/26 8:10pm

Beijing Boosts BeiDou Satellite System To Try And Compete With GPS China is upgrading its BeiDou satellite navigation system, a domestic alternative to GPS, to expand its global reach and industry use, according to South China Morning Post. The plan involves replacing older satellites with newer third-generation models and adjusting their orbits to improve worldwide coverage. The system will be streamlined from 50 to 37 active satellites, most operating in medium Earth orbit like GPS and Europe’s Galileo. A few satellites will remain in specialized orbits to improve signal reliability in certain regions, including areas linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The upgraded network will mainly use newer BDS-3 satellites, which are more accurate and advanced, while older BDS-2 units will be retired. The SCMP writes that China also aims to boost international adoption of BeiDou, especially in Belt and Road countries where it’s already used in shipping, agriculture, and transport. The upgrade supports a broader strategy to integrate space, air, and ground systems and expand satellite technology across industries. Officials expect BeiDou’s value to reach about $145 billion within five years. In addition, the overhaul is designed to make the system more efficient by reducing the total number of satellites while improving overall performance. By focusing on newer technology and better orbital positioning, China hopes to deliver more reliable global coverage with fewer resources. The remaining unused slots in the network also leave room for future expansion and technological upgrades. The move reflects China’s long-term goal of reducing reliance on Western navigation systems and strengthening its technological independence. By improving accuracy, coverage, and international partnerships, Beijing is positioning BeiDou as a competitive global alternative, particularly in developing regions where infrastructure projects are already closely tied to Chinese investment. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 22:10

— Ditch The Sanitizer And Exercise Your Immune System

 

at 4/17/26 7:45pm

Ditch The Sanitizer And Exercise Your Immune System Authored by Joel Salatin via The Epoch Times, Bugs, viruses, and sickness—these maladies creep into countless conversations as people wrestle with the question: How do I strengthen my immune system? The overriding answer from the conventional pharmaceutical and vaccine industry is that functional wellness comes from a pill, a needle, or some kind of medical treatment. As a farmer with thousands of animals and no vet bills, I can attest that the overriding conventional notion in the livestock industry is that a sick animal is apparently pharmaceutically disadvantaged. I have a completely opposite paradigm: A sick animal testifies to my own mistakes. Maybe I chose weak seedstock. Over many decades of livestock farming, I’ve had half a dozen economically significant sickness outbreaks across various species. Every single time, the problem was my fault. Hygiene, diet, stress, discomfort, and toxins. An animal can get sick for many reasons, none of which is because it was medically deprived. That brings me to people. In his iconic New York Times bestseller “Guns, Germs, and Steel,” Jared Diamond explains the ascendancy of cultures that lived proximate to domestic livestock. People groups who cultivated close relationships with domestic farm animals developed better immune systems. Many years ago, British epidemiologist David Strachan observed that children with more older siblings had fewer allergies, suggesting that early exposure to infections offered lasting protection. Many in this field of study rallied around this “hygiene hypothesis,” positing that the immune system is like a muscle and needs periodic exercise to be strong. Consistent with Diamond’s overall findings, this theory is best supported by research in Finland. Beginning a couple of decades ago, researchers in Finland began examining this “immune system as muscle” concept, comparing overall health between closely related children (cousins or siblings) who lived in different environments. The findings added substantial weight to the notion that the immune system has attributes similar to a muscle. Children who grew up on farms and went to the barn as toddlers—and you know what a toddler does to everything on the fingers—were far more robust than their urban counterparts. A little bit of manure, dirt, and moldy hay or grain stimulated the immune system and reduced vulnerability to colds, flu, and other common childhood maladies. Now for personal disclosure: Friends who know me know I routinely drink out of cow troughs with the cows. I do it not because I’m thirsty, but because I want a bigger variety of bugs in my microbiome. And I want some exposure to whatever unseen antagonist might be out there. The point is to exercise my immune system so that when something really serious comes along, it’s strong enough to fight it off. Yes, I could die tomorrow. But for decades, I have gone many years without the common issues that plague most folks. That is not pride; it is humble acknowledgment that we have a fearfully and wonderfully made body that is ready to house health if we give it half a chance. When I get on an airplane and the flight attendant stands there with a basket of antimicrobial sanitation cloths, I smile, lean over, and graciously say: “No, thank you; I really want your bugs.” That always gets a quizzical look and no doubt attendant conversations in the galley: “Do you see that weirdo over there? He wants my bugs.” On a recent flight, a couple took seats A and B; I was in C, on the aisle. Wearing masks, they sat down and immediately brought out sanitation wipes. Meal trays, the back of the seat, and armrests—everything received a thorough wipe-down. Then she offered her rags to me, and I said: “No, thank you, ma'am, I really want to breathe in your bugs.” The mask hid what must have been a horrified countenance. As soon as we were airborne, out came the snacks. Pringles, Twizzlers, Reese’s Pieces, soft drinks—I think they had an entire supermarket snack aisle in their bulky carry-on bag. I watched them chow down on all this junk for an hour. At hour two (it was a three-hour flight), they rang the call button. I wondered what that was all about. “We’re having sugar issues; can you please bring us some apple juice?” Are you kidding me? Sterilizing everything and then consuming sugar and artificials, my overriding thought was: “And these people vote.” Eating junk and bug paranoia are a recipe for immunological malfunction, but we see this kind of dystopian activity far too often. Fortunately, the word seems to be getting around that muscle-equivalent immunology is real. New moms taking their toddlers to petting zoos and dirt piles appear to be the new mania in the infant wellness field. This is a healthy change and a trend that could yield many benefits. If any savvy entrepreneurs have stayed with me in this column this long, here is my suggestion for a million-dollar business: Sell compost-and-dirt-infused permeable mats to urbanites yearning for robust immune function. It could be a subscription service where someone would come every four months and dump out the old compost and dirt and fill the mat with new material. It could be a welcome mat or perhaps even a mat you'd step on when exiting the shower to get all these goodies on your bare feet. I’m sure someone is smart enough to figure out how to get the country to the city. To be sure, I’m not suggesting we go back to open sewers and no refrigeration. I am suggesting that humanity can become too sterile. Our multi-billion-member microbiome is not sterile, and the No. 1 measure of vibrancy is microbial diversity in the gut. You don’t need to pay me a commission for the idea; just brand it and run with it. When we eat real food, unprocessed, we receive that microbial variety, and our immune system enjoys some exercise. As a techno-sophisticated society, we have become too sterile, and our immune systems suffer as a result. Let’s get back outside, in our gardens, in the dirt, share some bugs, and enjoy exercising our immune systems. At least go visit a farm. That’s a better approach than holding back our immune system while relying on needles and pills as a crutch to hold up the body’s atrophy, don’t you think? Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 21:45

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