Crooked Bough News Round-up

— EU Could Fine Musk's X $1 Billion Over Illicit Content, Disinformation

 

at 4/4/25 7:55am

EU Could Fine Musk's X $1 Billion Over Illicit Content, Disinformation Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com, European Union regulators are reportedly mulling a $1 billion fine against Elon Musk’s X, taking into account revenue from his other ventures, including Tesla and SpaceX, according to The New York Times. EU regulators allege that X has violated the Digital Services Act and will use a section of the act to calculate a fine based on revenue that includes other companies Musk controls, according to an April 3 report by the newspaper, which cited four people with knowledge of the plan. Under the Digital Services Act, which came into law in October 2022 to police social media companies and “prevent illegal and harmful activities online,” companies can be fined up to 6% of global revenue for violations. A spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, declined to comment on this case to The New York Times but did say it would “continue to enforce our laws fairly and without discrimination toward all companies operating in the EU.” In a statement, X’s Global Government Affairs team said that if the reports about the EU's plans are accurate, it “represents an unprecedented act of political censorship and an attack on free speech.” “X has gone above and beyond to comply with the EU’s Digital Services Act, and we will use every option at our disposal to defend our business, keep our users safe, and protect freedom of speech in Europe,” X's global government affairs team said. Source: Global Government Affairs Along with the fine, the EU regulators could reportedly demand product changes at X, with the full scope of any penalties to be announced in the coming months.  Still, a settlement could be reached if the social media platform agrees to changes that satisfy regulators, according to the Times.  One of the officials who spoke to the Times also said that X is facing a second investigation alleging the platform’s approach to policing user-generated content has made it a hub of illegal hate speech and disinformation, which could result in more penalties. X EU investigation ongoing since 2023 The EU investigation began in 2023. A preliminary ruling in July 2024 found X had violated the Digital Services Act by refusing to provide data to outside researchers, provide adequate transparency about advertisers, or verify the authenticity of users who have a verified account. X responded to the ruling with hundreds of points of dispute, and Musk said at the time he was offered a deal, alleging that EU regulators told him if he secretly suppressed certain content, X would escape fines.  Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner for internal market, said in a July 12 X post in 2024 that there was no secret deal and that X’s team had asked for the “Commission to explain the process for settlement and to clarify our concerns,” and its response was in line with “established regulatory procedures.”  Musk replied he was looking “forward to a very public battle in court so that the people of Europe can know the truth.” Source: Thierry Breton Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 09:55

— Trump Says China "Played It Wrong" On Retaliatory Tariffs — Now Beijing Faces Three Options

 

at 4/4/25 7:49am

Trump Says China "Played It Wrong" On Retaliatory Tariffs — Now Beijing Faces Three Options Update (0949ET): President Trump wrote on Truth Social that China "played it wrong" after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on imported US goods earlier this morning. "They panicked," Trump said, adding, "The one thing they cannot afford to do!"  And now, cue Trump's re-retaliatory tariffs this weekend… 100,000% re-retaliatory tariff incoming pic.twitter.com/Rhx3RNTQXH — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 4, 2025 China has three options in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff blitz:  Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands Devalue the yuan by 20-40% Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart China has three options: 1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands 2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40% 3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 4, 2025 On China's potential response, George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, provided clients with more color (read: here)...    .   .   .  U.S. equity futures took another leg lower, the VIX spiked to 36, Treasury yields slipped (UST10Y Beijing retaliates: China to impose additional 34% tariffs on **all** imported U.S. products starting April 10, the official Xinhua news agency reports. — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 4, 2025 According to state-run Xinhua, Beijing announced it would slap 34% retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. imports starting April 10. Details were scarce at the moment.  "Chinese authorities said they will start a probe into medical CT X-ray tubes imported from the US and India, and halt imports of poultry products from two American companies," Bloomberg noted.  Xinhua also reported that Beijing announced export control measures on certain rare earth-related items but did not provide specifics. China announces export control measures on certain rare earth-related items pic.twitter.com/HBW2ahcjv1 — China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 4, 2025 The move comes two days after Trump's tariff-a-palooza pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos noted on Thursday that the big negative surprise this week has been the 50%+ tariff rate on China (far worse than expectations) and the key connector economy Vietnam, which affected $600bn worth of manufactured goods to the U.S. combined. Goldman helped clients visualize this move.  On Thursday, Beijing condemned the escalating tariff war, calling it "unilateral bullying. " It added that it "firmly opposes" the tariff war and "will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests." And here we are—risk assets getting hammered again on a Friday morning—as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate sharply to end the week. Both superpowers remain locked in a stalemate over China's subsidization of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which has fueled the overdose death crisis in the United States.  Stay on top of the tariff war: The Only Chart That Matters... Global Impact Of Trump Tariffs Will Be Determined By Beijing "Reign Of Tariffs" Begins: All You Need To Know About Trump's "Reciprocal" Trade War Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action In markets, main US equity futures indexes were hammered lower after China retaliated.  A lot more red.  UST10Y Implied interest rate cuts top 4.5 for the year.  Bitcoin tumbles. Dollar loses steam after European surge.  And Yuan weaker. *Developing...   Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 09:49

— South Korea's Top Court Ousts Impeached President Yoon Over Martial Law Declaration

 

at 4/4/25 7:35am

South Korea's Top Court Ousts Impeached President Yoon Over Martial Law Declaration In a tensely-awaited but ultimately unanimous decision, South Korea's Constitutional Court on Friday finalized the ouster of President Yoon Suk Yeol, putting its stamp of approval on his impeachment for having declared martial law on Dec. 3. While some hope the decision will end the country's biggest political crisis in decades, South Koreans must now choose a new president at a time of intense internal discord, alongside an economic shock in the form of President Trump's 25% tariff.  Huge crowds filled the streets of Seoul to wait for the Constitutional Court ruling The 8-0 ruling came after weeks of hearings followed by weeks of deliberation. Millions of South Koreans watched the announcement on live television, with many gathering with crowds convening to show either support or opposition of the impeachment. Wary of violence, authorities put some 14,000 police on standby, and gave police advance rules of engagement that cleared them to use pepper spray and batons.  Palaces and other important Seoul facilities were closed, and the US embassy cancelled routine business. As this is written, there are no reports of violence -- yet. Yoon's party said it "humbly" accepted the ruling, which makes Yoon the second president to have been impeached in the country's history.    Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae (center) announces the Constitutional Court ruling upholding President Yoon's impeachment (AFP via MalayMail) Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae made the announcement at 11am local time:  "Given the serious negative impact and far-reaching consequences of the respondent's constitutional violations, we hereby pronounce the following ruling, with the unanimous agreement of all Justices. (We) dismiss respondent President Yoon Suk Yeol.... He committed a grave betrayal of the trust of the people, who are the sovereign members of the democratic republic...The president took actions beyond the powers. He did not merely declare martial law, but went on to commit acts that violated the Constitution and the law, including mobilizing military and police forces to obstruct the National Assembly's exercise of its authority Video captured an anti-Yoon crowd's reaction: South Korea faces snap election in sixty days as court upholds Yoon’s impeachment https://t.co/jAscuaH5Dy pic.twitter.com/yAZRijDtCv — RT (@RT_com) April 4, 2025 Tensions had mounted as South Korea awaited Friday's ruling. Over recent months, enormous demonstrations organized by both supporters and opponents of Yoon were a regular occurence. Ahead of the ruling, rhetoric ran hot. “If President Yoon is not reinstated, there will be a civil war,” said influential Pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, who has organized pro-Yoon demonstrations. He's described his work as a battle against "Communist Reds." In two indications of the passion on both sides, opposition-party members have staged hunger strikes in Seoul, while two Yoon partisans self-immolated in protest of his impeachment.  For now, the ruling leaves acting president and prime minister Han Duck-soo atop South Korea's government. In an indication of the turmoil that has rocked the country since Yoon's early-December power move stunned the world, Han was himself impeached two weeks into his acting presidency, accused of aiding and abetting Yoon's martial law declaration. Last month, the Constitutional Court negated his impeachment, reinstating him as acting president.  Per South Korea's constitution, an election must now be held within 60 days to choose his successor. Recent polls suggest that Lee Jae-myung of the center-left Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is the clear favorite. Unlike Yoon, Lee recently came out on the right side of a court ruling:  His conviction on charges of making false statements during his 2022 presidential campaign was overturned in March. That case centered on Lee's having denied he knew a businessman involved in corruption-stained real estate development project. The High Court ruled that the evidence had been insufficient. In January 2024, Lee survived a would-be assassin's knife attack that left Lee bleeding from his jugular vein.    STREET PARTY AS YOON SUK YEOL IS REMOVED AS PRESIDENT. pic.twitter.com/mHjl3XJRlB — Raphael Rashid (@koryodynasty) April 4, 2025 In his stunning late-night declaration of martial law in December, Yoon railed against “shameless pro-North-Korean anti-state forces who are plundering the freedom and happiness of our citizens," promising that he would "eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country.” Soldiers and police immediately surrounded the National Assembly, but 190 of the 300 members of parliament managed to unanimously vote to annul the martial law declaration. Yoon retracted it and apologized, but was impeached in the following days. In his Constitutional Court hearings, he said the move was necessary to "alert the public" to the "wickedness" of the opposition.   The 64-year-old Yoon may lose more than the presidency -- he has been criminally charged with insurrection, and his trial begins on April 14. His defense minister, Kim Yong-hyun, is likewise in legal peril. He resigned upon being charged with insurrection, and then attempted to kill himself hours later in police custody. Lawmakers accused him of sending drones to Pyongyang, North Korea to spark retaliation and give Yoon a pretext for martial law. The country's top two law enforcement officers were also arrested.  Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 09:35

— Female Fencer Expelled For Refusing To Compete Against Male Opponent

 

at 4/4/25 7:15am

Female Fencer Expelled For Refusing To Compete Against Male Opponent Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, A college female fencer in Maryland refused to compete against an opponent who is a biological male and has been expelled as a result. Stephanie Turner refused to compete against transgender fencer Redmond Sullivan at the Cherry Blossom Open, opting to take a knee at the start of the match, consequently being disqualified from the tournament. “I knew what I had to do because USA Fencing had not been listening to women’s objections regarding [its gender eligibility policy],” Turner said following the incident.  Female fencer takes a knee to protest against her biologically male opponent during a fencing match. The opponent, Redmond Sullivan, switched from the men's fencing team to the women's fencing team at Wagner College last year. Sullivan shockingly started dominating the… pic.twitter.com/v0uw8NF6Ji — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 2, 2025 “I took a knee immediately at that point. Redmond was under the impression that I was going to start fencing. So, when I took the knee, I looked at the ref and said, ‘I’m sorry, I cannot do this. I am a woman, and this is a man, and this is a women’s tournament. And I will not fence this individual,” she further urged. “Redmond didn’t hear me, and he comes up to me, and he thinks that I may be hurt, or he doesn’t understand what’s happening. He asks, ‘Are you OK?’ And I said, ‘I’m sorry. I have much love and respect for you, but I will not fence you,” Turner continued. Turner then described how she was paraded in front of the bout committee to explain her actions.  She was provided a copy of USA Fencing’s transgender policy and was forced under objection to sign a document acknowledging a black card. USA Fencing defended  its policy, claiming that it “was designed to expand access to the sport of fencing and create inclusive, safe spaces.” “The policy is based on the principle that everyone should have the ability to participate in sports and was based upon the research available of the day,” USA Fencing further proclaimed in the statement. Tennis legend Martina Navratilova is among those expressing disgust at the organisation’s actions. This is what happens when female athletes protest! Anyone here still thinks this is fair??? I am fuming… and shame on @USAFencing , shame on you for doing this. How dare you throw women under the gender bullshit bus!!! https://t.co/2ojOJvJiLx — Martina Navratilova (@Martina) April 2, 2025 Sick to death of this. Absolutely sick of it. “How does this affect you women?” Like this. Every time. All males OUT of women’s sports. https://t.co/tPXhY6xpUP — James Dreyfus (@DreyfusJames) April 2, 2025 Can you imagine punishing a woman for choosing to not fight a man in college sports? What kind of upside down world are we living in? I hate this. — Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) April 2, 2025 Others lauded Turner for refusing to be pressured into an unfair competition. This is how it's done. This nonsense only stops when every female athlete refuses to compete against males. — ?? Pismo ?? (@Pismo_B) April 2, 2025 I hate to see her lose for her cause but it is a brave and necessary effort. Well done. — Benjamin Way (@BWay124) April 2, 2025 President Trump issued an executive order shortly after taking office prohibiting biological males from competing in women’s sports, prompting the NCAA to change its trans athlete policy to reflect the order. However, USA Fencing is primarily governed by its own Board of Directors, operates as a nonprofit entity and is recognised by the United States Olympic & Paralympic Committee (USOPC) as the official National Governing Body (NGB) for fencing. As such, it has autonomy in its day-to-day governance, but must comply with USOPC standards and requirements, particularly regarding athlete representation, safety, and Olympic-related activities. It remains to be seen how this will consequently play out as relates to Trump’s executive order. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 09:15

— US Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar To 228K, Above Highest Estimate

 

at 4/4/25 7:02am

US Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar To 228K, Above Highest Estimate After today's shocking retaliation by China, which hiked tariffs on US goods by 34%, the jobs report was an afterthought. To be honest, it would have been an asymmetric afterhought any way, as any upside would have been viewed as stale and not reflecting the new tariff reality, while any miss would have cemented the recession case. And while the market is certainly far more focused on the ongoing trade war, in the end, the March jobs report ended up being far stronger than expected, as the US added a whopping 228K jobs, the highest since December and more than double the 117K in February (revised lower from 151K)... ... and beating the consensus estimate of 140K by 3 sigma The number was also above the highest estimate from Wall Street analysts, which was 200K. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 14,000, from +125,000 to +111,000, and the change for February was revised down by 34,000, from +151,000 to +117,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, above the estimate of an unchanged print... ... as the number of unemployed workers rose modestly to 7.083 million from 7.052 million, even as the labor force rose fractionally from 170.359 million to 170.591 million. And tied to that, while the Establishment survey rose by 228K, the Household survey also improved by a similar amount, with the number of employed workers rose by 201K, to 163.508 million. Turning to wages, there was some more good news in the report, at least for those hoping for a fed rate cut: while the monthly average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, as expected and the same as last month, the annual increase in wages was 3.8%, down from 4.0% last month and below the 4.0% estimate, suggesting the wage growth continues to cool sharply, allowing the Fed to resume rate cuts. Some more detailed from the jobs report:  The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in March. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million in March. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.7 million, was essentially unchanged in March. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 509,000 in March. Next we go through the qualitative breakdown of the Establishment survey, where we find that job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined. Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+20,000), hospitals (+17,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+17,000). Employment in social assistance increased by 24,000, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, individual and family services added 22,000 jobs. Retail trade added 24,000 jobs in March, as workers returning from a strike contributed to a job gain in food and beverage retailers (+21,000). General merchandise retailers lost 5,000 jobs. Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in March, about double the prior 12-month average gain of 12,000. In March, job gains in couriers and messengers (+16,000) and truck transportation (+10,000) were partially offset by a job loss in warehousing and storage (-9,000). Within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.) Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Here is a visual summary: Commenting on the numbers, Trump posted on Truth Social that job numbers were "far better than expected" and that "it's already working." Trump's tweet suggests that contrary to some expectations, the president isn't actually looking to throw the economy in a recession, but will push to keep it from crashing while he is playing the great game of trade war chicken with China and the rest of the world, which makes lives for traders more difficult as it means the Fed will have to make decisions on a tweet by tweet basis, which will be problematic. Meanwhile, others disagreed: here is Seema Shah from Ptincipal Asset Management who encapsulates prevailing sentiment well: “Everyone knows that economic weakness is coming, but at least we can be reassured that the labor market was robust coming into this policy-driven shock and therefore, the slowdown should not be overly steep. Next month is when hard data is likely to start showing signs of what soft data has already been signalling. From the Fed’s perspective, today’s payrolls number will not prevent them from future policy rate cuts – they know that this is just a moment of calm before the storm hits." Gregory Faranello, strategist at AmeriVet Securities, explained why today's jobs report was largely ignored: “it’s all about the forward outlook around tariffs and the ensuing impact on global demand. You would never have thought to see yields performing this way with a jobs report like this.” Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment, says “the market is betting that recession risks and the tightening of financial conditions will force the Fed to cut aggressively" now up to 100bp this year and rising.  As for Powell’s speech later this morning, Al-Hussainy says: "If we get any pushback against this from Powell & Co., front end rates may end up offside." But perhaps the best wrap of today's jobs report, however, was from Omair Sharif,  Inflation Insights: "Someone forgot there was a recession coming." Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 09:02

— Everything Is Crashing After China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs On US Goods

 

at 4/4/25 6:23am

Everything Is Crashing After China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs On US Goods For a few hours it seemed like we could even stabilize, if only a bit, ahead of today's scheduled main event: the March jobs report at 8:30am ET. And then all hell broke loose at 6:08am when this Bloomberg headline hit: *CHINA ANNOUNCES EXTRA 34% TARIFFS ON US GOODS In other words, far from seeking concessions, Beijing is now looking to escalate the trade war further, and forcing Trump to double down with even harsher retaliatory tariffs on China of his own, which at this point may push the blended tariff rate on Chinese goods above 100%. What followed instantly was sheer, unadulterated liquidation panic: *S&P 500 FUTURES DECLINE 4.1%, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES DOWN 4.6% *COPPER PLUNGES MORE THAN 5%, BIGGEST LOSS SINCE JULY 2022 *US 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.498%, LOWEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2022 *BRENT OIL DROPS BELOW $65 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 2021 *US CREDIT RISK GAUGE JUMPS MOST SINCE REGIONAL BANKING CRISIS *STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX FALLS 5.2%, MOST SINCE MARCH 2020 Instead of writing, we'll let the charts do the talking, summarizing the bloodbath so far. The S&P is set to record losses on six of the past seven weeks. Volatility has come roaring back as VIX explodes above 45. A continuation of the selloff on Friday — when the government’s jobs report for March is released — threatens to extend Fund managers yanked $4.7 billion out of US stocks in the week through April 2 in the second week of outflows, data compiled by EPFR Global and Bank of America show. The post-liberation day market has been a historic bloodbath Bitcoin reversed all modest overnight gains, but remains surprisingly resilient. The dollar's modest reversal higher was promptly halted, and the greenback reversed just as it was gaining. It wasn't just the dollar: the yuan also tumbled, reversing its bizarre gains since Trump declared trade war on China. “The market is bleeding and more pain is clearly coming as this escalating trade war risks pushing the US economy into a recession,” Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management said over the phone. “It’s not a surprise China would retaliate. But this will inevitably cause a recession because the damage is done — unless Trump backs off.” Well, there is an alternative: an emergency rate cut by the Fed, which now looks increasingly likely, because credit has officially cracked.. ... but worse, the 3Y SOFR swap spread, a metric of Treasury market stress is the lowest on record. Friday’s losses follow a massive wipe out by US stocks on Thursday that erased $2.7 trillion in value - the second biggest one day loss in history - in the wake of Trump’s drastic new trade tariffs which ignited widespread recession fears.  In a few minutes, investors will get a look at the latest monthly jobs print — the first major piece of data for the quarter — which could have wide-ranging implications for bond, stock and currency markets as well as the Fed’s next moves. Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks at 11:25 a.m. in Arlington, Virginia, which will be parsed for signs of weakness spreading to the workforce. The derivatives market is pricing in more volatility ahead. Options traders are betting that the S&P 500 will move roughly 1.6% in either direction after the jobs print today, based on the price of at-the-money straddles, according to Citigroup Inc. That’s well above the average straddle price for a 0.9% swing in either direction over the past 12 months. It's also well below what the market has already swung! “How bad will it get for the economy? With so much uncertainty swirling, stocks are selling off and that’s signaling that investors see both economic and profit growth slowing because of the trade war,” Adam Sarhan, founder of 50 Park Investments said by phone. Bloomberg reports that the equity rout now has Wall Street’s biggest stock bull, Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, rethinking his 7,100 price target on the S&P 500, which is among the highest on Wall Street tracked by Bloomberg and would imply a 25% gain through Thursday’s close. That comes as RBC Capital Markets’s Lori Calvasina cut her price target on the index for a second time this year to 5,550 from 6,200, given a dimmer outlook for economic and profit growth. “Without a doubt, where we’re sitting here it is under review and has been under review for awhile,” John Stoltzfus said on Bloomberg Television Friday. “The reality has been until we got these rather surprising unpleasant levels of tariffs and the market’s reaction, we’re naturally going to have to take a look and sharpen our pencils, so to speak.” Treasuries added to steep weekly gains unleashed by unfolding trade war, sending 2-year yields to lowest level since September 2022, after China retaliated against US tariffs with measures including a 34% levy on all American imports. Yields across maturities are lower by at least 11bp led by the 2-year, down nearly 19bp and below 3.5%. Fed-dated OIS contracts price in additional easing, with 115bp anticipated by year-end and about 50% odds of move in May. US session includes March jobs report and a speech by Fed Chair Powell at 11:25am New York time. US 10-year yield, around 3.89% near session low, is richer by 15bp on the day, more than 40bp on the week, and 100bps since January; bunds outperform by an additional 2bp in the sector while gilts trade broadly in line. Front-end-led gains — as more Fed easing is priced in — extend the steepening in 2s10s and 5s30s curves by nearly 3bp and 6bp on the day More stuff is happening, but honestly it is meaningless to go over everything since prices are moving at a furious pace and everything will be stale as soon as we write about it, and certainly after the jobs report is published. US economic calendar includes March jobs report at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate includes Chair Powell at 11:25am on the economic outlook, with text release and Q&A expected. Barr (12pm) and Waller (12:45pm) also speak Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini -2.9% Nasdaq 100 mini -3.1% Russell 2000 mini -4.1% Stoxx Europe 600 -5% 10-year Treasury yield -12 basis points at 3.91% VIX +14 points at 44 Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1254.8,  Euro +0.1% at $1.1055 WTI crude -4% at $64.15/barrel Top Overnight News Trump administration officials are assuring farm-state Republicans they will funnel billions of taxpayer dollars to farmers who are hit by Trump’s intensifying trade war. But it may be some time before any money is released. The administration wants to take stock of the economic fallout of the tariffs in the agriculture sector before rolling out aid, which will likely take several more months. Politico While there have been expressions of displeasure, Republicans (who could use their own votes to stop the new tariffs cold) made clear they had no intention of acting anytime soon. “I think most members on our side are very willing to give the president time,” Arkansas Sen. John Boozman said, summing up the view of many GOP lawmakers who might have qualms about Trump’s massive new levies but showed little interest — at least for now and the near future — in doing anything concrete to restrain him. Politico President Donald Trump on Thursday contradicted his top aides on the purpose of his sprawling new global tariff regime, adding to the uncertainty over the trade war that has sent markets reeling. Earlier in the day, top Trump aide Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the president was not looking to strike deals over the tariffs. “This is not a negotiation,” Navarro told CNBC. But after markets closed down sharply, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he would be open to striking deals with individual countries. WaPo US Social Security faces thousands more job cuts. The Social Security Administration is drafting plans to begin layoffs of potentially thousands more employees as soon as next week: WaPo Republicans are weighing the creation of a new bracket for those earning $1 million or more to offset some of the costs of their tax bill, a stark departure from decades of GOP opposition to tax increases. BBG China retaliated against the new US tariffs, announcing a 34% levy on all American imports starting April 10. Earlier, Donald Trump said he’s open to negotiations if other nations can offer something “phenomenal.” BBG President Trump’s jumbo tariffs on China threaten to create a new problem for a global economy already stressed over trade: a $400 billion deluge of Chinese goods looking for new markets. WSJ Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba will meet opposition leaders today to discuss responses to the tariffs, which he said should be called a “national crisis.” BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the US’s move will weigh on growth. BBG Traders now see the Fed cutting 100 bps by year-end, with a 50% chance of a cut in May. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks resumed the post-Liberation Day selling after Wall St suffered its worst loss since 2020, while fresh drivers are light amid the Greater China holiday closures and with participants now awaiting US jobs data. ASX 200 re-entered correction territory with the declines led by heavy losses in tech and energy in which the latter was pressured after oil prices fell by around 7% amid tariff turmoil and news that OPEC+ decided to increase output by a larger-than-scheduled 411k barrels per day in May. Nikkei 225 sold off again and fell below the USD 34,000 level with better-than-expected Household Spending data doing little to spur a recovery. KOSPI was initially choppy but ultimately weakened after the Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon's impeachment which sparked some angry protests and triggered an election to be held within 60 days. Top Asian News BoJ Governor Ueda said US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and global economies, while he added it is hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan's price moves and they will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy. Ueda said they will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the time of each policy meeting to gauge the US tariff impact on Japan's economy and prices. BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said they will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against the background of continued improvements in the economy. Uchida said they will examine, without any preset idea if economic and price forecasts laid out in the quarterly report will be achieved, as well as scrutinise at each meeting economic, and price developments and risks including the impact from US tariffs. South Korean Constitutional Court ruled to oust impeached President Yoon with the decision made unanimously. European bourses (STOXX 600 -2.1%) are entirely in the red, in a continuation of the Trump-tariff induced slump seen on Thursday. Price action has only really been downwards today, given the lack of fresh catalysts and with traders mindful of the key NFP report ahead. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a couple of sectors managing to hold in positive territory. Food Beverage & Tobacco outperforms today, largely thanks to the defensive bias in the markets today. Banks continue to underperform, extending on the prior day’s losses; yields continue to drive lower, and fears of an economic slowdown continue to increase. Top European News UK government said almost GBP 14bln of R&D funding is allocated to bolster life sciences, green energy, space and beyond to improve lives and grow the economy. Goldman Sachs cuts the UK's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% (prev. 0.8%). Deutsche Bank says the latest US tariffs could hit Europe and the UK's GDP by 0.4-0.7% percentage points and 0.3-0.6 percentage points respectively. DXY DXY is on a firmer footing, after initially edging lower in overnight/early European trade. Yesterday was a woeful session for the USD on account of concerns over the US' growth outlook post-tariffs with the DXY falling from an opening level at 103.37 to a trough at 101.26. Trade specific updates since have been relatively light, so focus today will be on US NFP and then Fed Chair Powell thereafter. EUR/USD has been weighed on in recent trade by the pickup in the USD but is still firmly above yesterday's opening level @ 1.0848. Analysts at ING attribute the recent resilience in the EUR not to a positive reappraisal of the Eurozone's growth outlook but more as a result of the "alternative liquidity offered by the euro". JPY is marginally softer vs. the USD and faring better than peers on account of the JPY's safe-haven appeal. BoJ speak overnight saw Governor Ueda remark that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and global economies, however, it is hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan's price moves. Elsewhere, Deputy Governor Uchida noted that rates will be raised if underlying inflation heightens against the background of continued improvements in the economy. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 146 handle but is still far away from yesterday's opening level at 149.21. After a solid showing vs. the USD yesterday which sent Cable from a 1.2968 base to a 1.3207 peak, the recent resurgence of the Dollar briefly sent the pair back onto a 1.29 handle with a session low at 1.2976. Antipodeans underperform today after seeing slight gains in the prior session. Gains yesterday were limited by the high-beta status of both currencies, which is the main driver of today's underperformance as internal macro drivers for Australia and New Zealand remain light. Fixed Income USTs continue to advance as the risk tone remains downbeat and has deteriorated further in the European morning. Bringing USTs to a 113-12+ peak, weighing on yields across the curve with the belly/10yr once again lagging. Trade updates have been relatively light since "Liberation Day", but President Trump suggested that the onus is on partners to bring him something "phenomenal". US NFP is on the docket and then focus turns to Fed Chair Powell thereafter. Bunds are already getting on for gains of 100 ticks on the day with Payrolls and Powell yet to print. Initial action was modest in nature, with overnight focus primarily on Japan as JGBs played catchup to Thursday’s moves and BoJ bets were altered to show just 13bps of tightening implied for the rest of 2025. Peaked at 130.75 thus far with gains of 163 ticks WTD. Gilts are also moving higher alongside peers. Upside of 104 ticks at most so far, higher by over 230 ticks on the week and around 350 above the low from last Wednesday’s Spring Statement. Commodities Crude continues its recent slump with WTI and Brent currently down by around USD 2.60/bbl and USD 2.50/bbl respectively. There has been little fresh fundamental in today's trade, but pressure is ultimately a factor of a) negative risk tone. b) fears of slowing economic growth. c) OPEC+ decided to increase output by a larger-than-scheduled 411k barrels per day in May. Brent Jun'25 currently at the lower end of a USD 67.53-70.11/bbl range. Precious metals are on the backfoot today, with spot silver underperforming vs gold. Specifically for the yellow-metal, price action was rangebound overnight and remained within overnight ranges for most of the European morning, before then succumbing to some modest selling pressure alongside a broader pick-up in the Dollar. Currently trading around USD 3,090/oz in a USD 3,078.60-3,116.67/oz range. Base metals are entirely in the red, given the risk tone and in a continuation of the recent slump across the commodity complex; a holiday in China, is also a factor for the downside today. Geopolitics: Middle East Israeli military say they have "eliminated" Hassan Farhat, a Hamas commander in Lebanon Israeli media reported that the Israeli army launched raids on large areas in the Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera Houthi-affiliated media reports US aggression on the Kahlan area, east of Saada city, northern Yemen, according to Al Jazeera. Iran reportedly abandons Houthis under relentless US bombardment and ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen, according to The Telegraph. US President Trump said he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Thursday who may visit the US next week, although it was separately reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu's visit to the White House will likely take place in a few weeks. Turkey said Israel's attacks on regional countries have made Israel the biggest threat to regional security, while it added that Israel is a regional destabiliser and is feeding chaos and terror. Saudi Crown Prince received a phone call from Iran's President during which they discussed developments in the region and issues of common interest. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump's inner circle advises against a call with Russian President Putin until he commits to a full ceasefire. Russian envoy Dmitriev said lots of differences remain, but a diplomatic solution is possible and there is already some progress on trust-building measures, while he sees a positive dynamic in US-Russian relations and said Several meetings are needed to sort out differences. Dmitriev also stated that a long-term solution that takes into account Russian security concerns is what is needed, as well as commented that they are not asking for a lifting of sanctions and that they can do a deal with the US on rare earths. Moscow's mayor said Russian air defences repelled drones approaching Moscow and specialists are examining fallen fragments. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 140k, prior 151k 8:30 am: Mar Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -1k, prior 10k 8:30 am: Mar Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1% 8:30 am: Mar Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30 am: Mar Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4%, prior 4% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The last 24 hours have been truly historic for markets, as the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs cascaded across different asset classes, with no sign of letting up overnight. We’ll dive into more depth shortly, but just to run through some of the moves, yesterday saw the S&P 500 fall -4.84%, marking its biggest daily decline since June 2020, with futures down another -0.74% this morning. In turn, that took the peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500 beyond 12%, meaning it’s now the biggest overall decline since the 2022 bear market. Otherwise, US HY spreads widened by +53bps yesterday, the biggest move wider since March 2020 at the height of the pandemic turmoil. The 10yr Treasury yield has fallen beneath 4% again, with futures fully pricing in a Fed rate cut by the June meeting. Both the dollar index (-1.67%) and Brent crude oil (-6.42%) suffered their worst days since 2022. And overnight, the 10yr Japanese government bond yield (-16.8bps) is on track for its biggest decline since 2003. So we’re currently experiencing some of the biggest moves in years right across the major asset classes. Given the significance of the tariff announcement, here at Deutsche Bank Research we’ve been thinking through what this means for our global forecasts. Yesterday we provided an initial guide (link here) on how they’ll shift if the tariffs do hold, although clearly there’s still a lot up in the air, including the extent of any retaliation. For the US, the movement is stagflationary, and our economists think these could reduce the 2025 GDP forecast (Q4/Q4) from 2.2% to around or under 1%, with core PCE up from 2.7% to around 4%. So recession risks will likely rise materially if these tariffs are sustained. And when it comes to the Fed, they think the latest moves make them more likely to cut, even though the direction of travel is highly stagflationary, with the bias now towards up to four cuts this year if this tariff policy holds. Meanwhile in Europe, our economists’ discuss their latest estimates in a report yesterday (link here). They estimate that the increase in US tariffs could knock 0.4-0.7pp off EU GDP, and that the EU will likely retaliate. Although the tariffs could complicate the easing trajectory for the ECB, they think they’re likely to continue cutting, and hold their terminal rate forecast of 1.50% at end-2025, with further rate cuts in April, June, September and December. They think the hit to growth will increase pressure on the ECB to cut rates, especially as the euro moved above $1.11 intraday yesterday for the first time in over 6 months. In terms of what happens now, the big question is how the US’s trading partners might retaliate, as that will play a huge role in determining what the overall economic and market impact will be. For instance, French President Macron said yesterday that companies should pause their US investments, saying “What would be the message of having big European players that invest billions in the American economy at the same time they are hitting us”. Separately, it was announced by Canadian PM Market Carney that Canada would put 25% tariffs on US-made autos that don’t comply with the USMCA deal. At the same time, investors will be watchful of any potential deals to reduce tariffs, with Trump saying yesterday evening that “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate” but that other countries would have to offer something “phenomenal” in negotiations for him to relent. So no signs of any immediate relief. On the back of all this, investors grew increasingly fearful about a potential US recession, with US equities seeing their sharpest decline in years. The S&P 500 (-4.84%) , the NASDAQ (-5.97%) and the small cap Russell 2000 (-6.59%) all saw their worst days since 2020, and there were as many as 74 companies in the S&P that fell by at least 10% yesterday. All that meant measures of volatility continued to spike, with the VIX index (+8.51pts) moving up to 30.02pts, its highest level since the turmoil last summer. And given mounting fears of a downturn, the more cyclical sectors drove the underperformance, with the Magnificent 7 (-6.67%) posting its worst day since July and extending the decline from its December peak to -24%. Meanwhile in Europe, the declines weren’t quite as bad, but even there the STOXX 600 (-2.57%) saw its biggest move lower since August. Whilst growth fears were at the forefront yesterday, investors were also becoming a lot more concerned about inflation. In fact, the US 1yr inflation swap (+8.3bps) rose for a ninth session in a row to close at its highest level since 2022, back when the Fed were still hiking by 75bps per meeting to get inflation under control again. However, because of the growth fears, investors also priced in that the Fed would cut rates more aggressively over the months ahead. In fact as we go to press this morning, futures are now pricing over 100bps of rate cuts by the December meeting, and are fully pricing in an initial cut by the June meeting. They even see a 34% probability of a cut at the next meeting in May, so all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s comments today to see his reaction. With investors worried about the growth shock and pricing in more rate cuts, that helped sovereign bond yields to move lower across the curve, albeit with a very sharp steepening. For instance, the 2y Treasury yield (-17.8bps) fell back to 3.68%, and the 10yr yield (-10.1bps) fell to 4.03%, yet the 30yr yield (-3.0bps) saw a smaller decline to 4.47%. And over in Europe, there were also declines as investors priced in more ECB rate cuts, with yields on 10yr bunds (-7.0bps), OATs (-5.0bps) and BTPs (-4.3bps) all moving lower. Over in the FX space, there was a huge depreciation in the US Dollar yesterday, with the dollar index (-1.67%) posting its biggest daily decline since 2022. That included a +1.83% move for the Euro, which closed at $1.1052, which is the first time it’s closed above $1.10 in six months. More broadly, our FX strategists are maintaining their bullish EUR/USD view, and George Saravelos warned yesterday (link here) that there’s an increasing concern that the dollar is at risk of a broader confidence crisis. Amidst the huge market moves, sentiment wasn’t helped by the latest ISM services data, which came in beneath expectations in March. The headline index was down to a 9-month low of 50.8 (vs. 52.9 expected), and the employment component (46.2) slumped to its lowest since December 2023. That said, for now at least, the labour market hasn’t shown an obvious sign of deterioration, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 219k over the week ending March 29 (vs. 225k expected), which pushed the 4-week average down to 223k. That focus on US data will continue today, as we’ve got the March jobs report coming out at 13:30 London time. Clearly it won’t account for the full impact of these reciprocal tariffs that are now coming, but it will be an important test as it’s one of the first hard data prints we have for the month of March. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for nonfarm payrolls to come in at +150k, with the unemployment rate rounding up to 4.2%. You can see their full preview and register for their post-release webinar here. Later on today, we’ll then hear from Fed Chair Powell, who’s giving a speech on the economic outlook, so that will be heavily in focus to hear about how the Fed are thinking about tariffs and their reaction function. Ahead of that, we did hear from Fed Vice Chair Jefferson yesterday, who said “there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. Overnight, this direction of travel has continued in markets, with sharp losses in Asia that built on yesterday’s moves. For instance, Japan’s Nikkei is down another -3.74%, on top of its -2.77% move yesterday. So as it stands, the index is down -9.93% for the week, which would be its worst weekly performance since the pandemic turmoil of March 2020. That comes amidst a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen, which is currently at 145.62 per US dollar this morning.  Moreover, there’s been an astonishing move in Japan’s government bond yields, with the 10yr yield (-16.8bps) on track for its biggest daily decline since 2003. Meanwhile in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (-2.24%) has also built on its Thursday losses, leaving it on track for its worst weekly performance since 2022. And in South Korea, the KOSPI is down -1.71%. Equity markets in China are closed for a holiday. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for March. Other data includes German factory orders and French industrial production for February, along with the construction PMIs for March in Germany and the UK. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, along with the Fed’s Barr and Waller. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 08:23

— Goldman Launches DOGE Tracker To Monitor Real-Time DC Economic Impact

 

at 4/4/25 5:45am

Goldman Launches DOGE Tracker To Monitor Real-Time DC Economic Impact Our conversation with a few institutional desks suggests a growing interest in the downstream economic impact of DOGE-related federal agency restructurings across Washington, DC—particularly with USAID neutered, the Department of Education dismantled, and numerous other agencies experiencing tens of thousands of job cuts. Additionally, the termination of federal contractors and NGO staff raises further concerns that the nation's capital—fueled mainly by taxpayer dollars—could face outsized economic disruption. Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius shared new insights with clients on Sunday, unveiling an economic snapshot of the DC metro area economy through the firm's new Monthly U.S. Government Activity—a data dashboard that monitors DC government employment, spending, and other economic trends. Hatzius said the first two months of the second Trump administration had featured federal agency restructuring, spending cuts, and federal layoffs, prompting his team to launch the monthly U.S. Government Activity Tracker to monitor employment and spending trends. Jobs data so far indicates early signs of reduction in the government workforce, with 49.3k employees (1.6% of the workforce) affected. This includes 21k probationary workers, along with further cuts planned at agencies like the VA, DoD, IRS, and HHS. Initial unemployment claims for federal workers rose in late February (read here) and early March but have since moderated, while DC job postings on Indeed.com are down 11% since January. Hatzius noted that the broader labor market impact remains minimal. Federal spending shows some confirmed cuts, particularly at the State Department and FCC, though total cash withdrawals from the Treasury align with historical norms. Contract awards have fallen slightly, while grant awards have stagnated below trend since Inauguration Day. Government travel has also slowed, but DC airport traffic remains stable, while DC Metrorail ridership surged as federal workers were called back to the office.  Data from Morning Consult shows consumer sentiment among federal workers has soured, especially across the DC metro area since the start of the year.  Here's the U.S. Government Activity Tracker snapshot for March:  Employment Reduction in Force Orders Have Affected an Estimated 49.3k Federal Employees So Far Initial Unemployment Claims Filed by Federal Employees Remain Elevated Further RIF Layoffs Have Been Reported at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Defense, and Internal Revenue Service Job Openings in Washington DC Have Declined Considerably Federal Government Job Growth Slowed to 0.7% Year-over-year in February Spending Total Federal Government Operating Cash Withdrawals Are Roughly On-trend… But Spending is Undershooting in Several Key Department and Agencies Federal Contracts Activity Declined Slightly in February but Still Lies Within Normal Ranges Federal Grants Have Largely Stagnated at a Below-trend Level Since Inauguration Day Government Travel Recent Company Anecdotes Highlight Negative Impacts on the Airlines and Hospitality Sectors No Signs of Decline in DC-Area Flights Weekday Metrorail Ridership Reaches a Post-pandemic High as Federal Employees Return to Office Consumer Sentiment Sentiment Among Government Employees Has Declined Sharply, Especially Among Those Residing in the DC Area Market Performance of Companies Exposed to Government Spending Cuts Has Declined Since Election Day Some IT Software, Defense, and Real Estate Companies Are Cautiously Optimistic About the Efficiency-driven Spending Cuts Hatzius pointed out, "Taken together, the data captures a modest real-time impact on employment and discretionary and operational spending but otherwise suggests limited growth implications. We continue to expect these government spending cuts to have a relatively limited macroeconomic impact."  Separate from Goldman, we have commented on everything from MLS housing data to jobs data, which only show that the real pain for the DC Swamp—whether in DC itself, Northern Virginia, or Maryland—has yet to hit. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 07:45

— Democrats Want 'Misgendering' And 'Deadnaming' To Be Considered Child Abuse

 

at 4/4/25 5:20am

Democrats Want 'Misgendering' And 'Deadnaming' To Be Considered Child Abuse Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Democrats in Colorado have introduced legislation that would recognise ‘misgendering’ and ‘deadnaming’ as forms of abuse of children who have decided to identify as transgender. Colorado Newsline reports that the bill, called “The Kelly Loving Act” after a transgender-identifying individual killed in a 2022 club shooting in Colorado Springs, would ensure such ‘abuse’ be considered in child custody disputes. The legislation defines ‘deadnaming’ as “to purposefully, and with the intent to disregard the individual’s gender identity or gender expression, refer to an individual by their birth name rather than their chosen name.” INSANE. The CO House Committee has voted 7-4 to pass a radical transgender bill that makes "misgendering" a "discriminatory act," takes children away from parents who "deadname" or "misgender," and pushes gender ideology in all schools, including private and charter. Every… pic.twitter.com/x5WOwAKI6Z — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 2, 2025 It identifies ‘misgendering’ as “to purposefully, and with the intent to disregard the individual’s gender identity or gender expression, refer to an individual using an honorific or pronoun that conflicts with the individual’s gender identity or gender expression.” That’s right, calling little Jimmy ‘he/him’ after he’s decided he wants to be little Janey would be classed as child abuse. ?Yesterday, these 7 Colorado Reps voted to force all parents to affirm their kids’ gender dysphoria, or else the state will take them — and force ALL Coloradans call a man a woman if he tells you to, or else the state will come after you. https://t.co/7clVMmk2wN pic.twitter.com/DI1shaEYLE — Erin for Parental Rights (@Erin4Parents) April 3, 2025 The bill outlines that courts overseeing child custody decisions would have to consider ‘misgendering,’ and ‘deadnaming,’ as “coercive control” on behalf of a parent. A group of Colorado Democrats in the state legislature have introduced legislation to require courts to consider “deadnaming” and “misgendering” in court battles regarding child custody. DETAILS: https://t.co/4nrqsJCWd7 pic.twitter.com/dSGtiU5Qqe — Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) April 2, 2025 Imagine the scenario. The kid sees something on social media and decides he’s a girl now. Dad, let’s call him Chad, thinks it’s just a phase or an example of social contagion, but Mom, Karen, is adamant it’s not and wants to give the kid puberty blockers. Who do you think is gonna get custody if the parents are separated? A father in Colorado was gagged by the court during a custody battle because he refused to give his child puberty blockers. Democrats in CO are now pushing bill HB25-1312 which would take “misgendering” & “deadnaming” into account during custody hearings. pic.twitter.com/vxOxRu3M8F — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 3, 2025 The report also notes that the legislation would prohibit Colorado courts from enforcing orders or laws from other states that require a child to be removed from parents who allow them to undergo ‘transition’ procedures. The bill would also ensure that ‘misgendering’ and ‘deadnaming’ are recognised as discrimination under the Colorado Anti-Discrimination Act.  The report also highlights that the proposed law would mandate schools to adopt policies regarding “chosen names” and prohibit school dress codes based on “gender.” The legislation has passed the House committee on its way to a vote. When President Trump took office, he signed an Executive Order outlining that there are only two genders. Trump’s order also defunds any schools or clinics supporting transitioning procedures or self identifying when it comes to sex. JUST IN: A child was denied "gender-affirming care" at Children's Hospital of Wisconsin due to Trump's EO banning funds for puberty blockers for minors. President Trump is saving our children from irreversible, harmful drugs. pic.twitter.com/XjWlGMkxu8 — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 10, 2025 *  *  * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 07:20

— China Strikes Back: Slaps 34% Tariff On US Goods After Trump's 'Liberation Day'

 

at 4/4/25 5:00am

China Strikes Back: Slaps 34% Tariff On US Goods After Trump's 'Liberation Day' U.S. equity futures took another leg lower, the VIX spiked to 36, Treasury yields slipped (UST10Y Beijing retaliates: China to impose additional 34% tariffs on **all** imported U.S. products starting April 10, the official Xinhua news agency reports. — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 4, 2025 According to state-run Xinhua, Beijing announced it would slap 34% retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. imports starting April 10. Details were scarce at the moment.  "Chinese authorities said they will start a probe into medical CT X-ray tubes imported from the US and India, and halt imports of poultry products from two American companies," Bloomberg noted.  Xinhua also reported that Beijing announced export control measures on certain rare earth-related items but did not provide specifics. China announces export control measures on certain rare earth-related items pic.twitter.com/HBW2ahcjv1 — China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 4, 2025 The move comes two days after Trump's tariff-a-palooza pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos noted on Thursday that the big negative surprise this week has been the 50%+ tariff rate on China (far worse than expectations) and the key connector economy Vietnam, which affected $600bn worth of manufactured goods to the U.S. combined. Goldman helped clients visualize this move.  On Thursday, Beijing condemned the escalating tariff war, calling it "unilateral bullying. " It added that it "firmly opposes" the tariff war and "will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests." And here we are—risk assets getting hammered again on a Friday morning—as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate sharply to end the week. Both superpowers remain locked in a stalemate over China's subsidization of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which has fueled the overdose death crisis in the United States.  Stay on top of the tariff war: The Only Chart That Matters... Global Impact Of Trump Tariffs Will Be Determined By Beijing "Reign Of Tariffs" Begins: All You Need To Know About Trump's "Reciprocal" Trade War Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action In markets, main US equity futures indexes were hammered lower after China retaliated.  A lot more red.  UST10Y Implied interest rate cuts top 4.5 for the year.  Bitcoin tumbles. Dollar loses steam after European surge.  And Yuan weaker. *Developing...   Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 07:00

— Russia Warns Against US Strikes On Iran Nuclear Sites: 'Catastrophic & Illegal'

 

at 4/4/25 4:30am

Russia Warns Against US Strikes On Iran Nuclear Sites: 'Catastrophic & Illegal' Via The Cradle The Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Thursday that US threats of attack against Iran are "unacceptable" and could result in a "catastrophe". "The use of military force by Iran's opponents in the context of the settlement is illegal and unacceptable. Threats from outside to bomb Iran's nuclear infrastructure facilities will inevitably lead to an irreversible global catastrophe. These threats are simply unacceptable," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also told Life magazine that the "consequences of this, especially if there are strikes on the nuclear infrastructure, could be catastrophic for the entire region." Kremlin Pool via AP Russia and the US have recently held talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Ryabkov said these talks have not resulted in a breakthrough.  Regarding tension between Tehran and Washington, Ryabkov said Russia "condemns US threats." The Russian Foreign Ministry comes after US President Donald Trump renewed his threat to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.  "If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing. But there's a chance that if they don't make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago," the president said on Sunday. Iran issued a formal complaint to the UN Security Council and said it would respond to any threat. Trump had sent a letter to Iranian leadership in early March, threatening an attack if Tehran did not come to the negotiating table. Iranian officials said they would not negotiate under threats and economic sanctions, which Trump has imposed with full force as part of his "maximum pressure" policy.  This week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has officially responded to Trump’s letter signaling a willingness for indirect talks, which the US is reportedly considering.  However, Washington is simultaneously beefing up its forces in the region in preparation for a potential attack. This follows several reports over the past two months that Israel is planning to strike at the Iranian nuclear program.  Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravachi held talks on the nuclear issue with Ryabkov on Wednesday.  "The sides stressed the illegality and inadmissibility of the use of military force by Iran's opponents to resolve disagreements and the unacceptability of threats from the outside to bomb Iran's nuclear energy infrastructure, as this will inevitably lead to large-scale and irreversible radiological and humanitarian consequences for the entire Middle East region and the world as a whole," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.  Satellite imagery from earlier today by @IndoPacWatch shows 6 B-2 “Spirit” Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers with the 509th Bomb Wing, on the tarmac at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a little more than 2,000 miles away from Iran. pic.twitter.com/divXs4o9kb — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 1, 2025 China, Russia, and Iran released a joint statement on March 14 demanding an end to "unlawful" US sanctions against the Islamic Republic after meetings in Beijing between the three countries.  Tehran insists that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, in line with a religious fatwa against weapons of mass destruction, as well as the fact that it is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 06:30

— Poland Inks $2 Billion Air Defense Deal With US

 

at 4/4/25 3:45am

Poland Inks $2 Billion Air Defense Deal With US Poland unveiled this week that it has signed a new defense deal with the United States valued at nearly $2 billion. This is for more Patriot air defense systems and expanded logistical support. "The safety of Polish skies has no price," Deputy Prime Minister of Poland Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told a news briefing while discussing missile defense cooperation with Washington. Via US Embassy in Warsaw "Poland's defense ministry said implementing the agreement would enable the operational readiness of Patriot launchers, which form the foundation of the Wisla program," one international report says. "It aims to counter, among other things, short-range tactical ballistic missiles, including maneuvering missiles." Under the same program, the NATO eastern flank country acquired its first two Patriot system batteries in 2018. The Trump administration has praised Poland for being among NATO's top spenders in terms of GDP. Polish President Andrzej Duda has sought to fix a standard of defense spending of at least 4% of GDP, and even have it enshrined in the nation's constitution. Poland plans to spend 4.7% of GDP on defense this year, which is the highest in the NATO alliance. "Poland is a model NATO ally and a leader in advanced air and missile defense," said US chargé d’affaires Daniel Lawton while attending a signing ceremony at the military base in Sochaczew. The event was also attended by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.  Lawton added, "We are proud to celebrate another step in US-Polish defense cooperation – strengthening NATO’s eastern flank and deepening our strategic partnership." Poland is now the only country in the world other than the US to possess the US Army's newest Patriot batteries with the integrated air and missile defense battle command system (IBCS). Meanwhile, Tusk has sent a message to US President Donald Trump on the newly unveiled tariffs, including a 20% rate for the EU... "America could and always can count on Poland," Tusk said in English. "You have only friends here. And I can say the same thing about Europe as a whole." Mr. President @realDonaldTrump, cooperation is always better than confrontation. pic.twitter.com/EFtXj51rGC — Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) March 31, 2025 "In our common European-American interest are a strong US, a strong European Union and a strong NATO, not weaker," he added. "Think about it, Mr President and dear American friends before you decide to impose tariffs against your closest allies. Cooperation is always better than confrontation." Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 05:45

— Matt Taibbi Files $10 Million Libel Suit Against Dem Rep. For Accusing Him Of 'Serial Sexual Harassment'

 

at 4/4/25 3:44am

Matt Taibbi Files $10 Million Libel Suit Against Dem Rep. For Accusing Him Of 'Serial Sexual Harassment' Journalist Matt Taibbi is suing Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove for libel, after the California Democrat claimed during her opening remarks in a House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday that he's a "serial sexual harasser." "To distract from the dumpster fire this administration is pursuing," she said, the Republicans were "elevating a serial sexual harrasser as their star witness." While Taibbi wouldn't have been able to sue due to lawmaker protections under the Speech and Debate clause of the constitution, Kamlager-Dove was stupid enough to then post those claims on social media; both on X and Blue Sky. Damn. Ranking Member Kamlager-Dove calls GOP witness Matt Taibbi a "serial sexual harasser" and enters articles into the congressional record about his history as a sex pest pic.twitter.com/D0li1K6Qij — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 1, 2025 As Taibbi directly notes to Kamlager-Dove via Racket News, "Rep. Kamlager-Dove, no woman has ever accused me of engaging in sexual harrassment once, let alone serially. See you in court. Please do not evade service."  *  *  * On Sale! Grab a complete 2-day emergency survival backpack at ZH Store Click pic... add to cart (one for each car & your go-bag storage)... be more prepared. Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 05:44

— Charity Involved With Adolescence Suggested Boys Engaging In "Locker Room Banter" Can Lead To "Genocide"

 

at 4/4/25 3:00am

Charity Involved With Adolescence Suggested Boys Engaging In "Locker Room Banter" Can Lead To "Genocide" Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news, The charity which met with Prime Minister Keir Starmer over a plan to screen the Netflix show Adolescence in UK schools previously published material suggesting that boys engaging in “locker room banter,” advocating for “strict gender roles” and “bragging” can ultimately lead to genocide. Yes, really. Adolescence is a 4 part drama based around a 13-year-old white boy who murders a girl after being radicalized by incel culture and ‘Manosphere’ social media influencers like Andrew Tate. Despite the fact that the show is a complete work of fiction, it has somehow become a rallying cry for new policies and laws which will ultimately lead to more online censorship. The child character in the show is a white boy from a married home, despite producers admitting the plot was primarily based on the murder of a 15-year-old black girl by a black Ugandan immigrant. Tender has been instrumental in working with the producers of the show to bring it to a wider audience, leading to a plan to broadcast the series in all UK schools which has been backed by the government. Representatives from Tender in addition to Adolescence co-creator Jack Thorne and producers Emma Feller and Jo Johnson met with the UK Prime Minister on Monday. Tender’s CEO at the Downing Street roundtable https://t.co/3COvkAzIYY pic.twitter.com/72ftzY8lwR— Charlotte Gill (@CharlotteCGill) April 1, 2025 As Charlotte Gill documents, Tender previously published a ‘pyramid of sexual violence’ which suggests that teenage boys engaging in “locker room banter,” “bragging,” “objectification,” and adhering to the attitude that “boys will be boys” can ultimately lead to sexual assault. Here is some learning material from @TenderUK, the taxpayer-funded (£3.4 million, 2020-24) charity, coming to schools in the aftermath of Adolescence.Its pyramid explains how men go from bragging to genocide. There’s also colonialism in there. pic.twitter.com/KbffSnA5Uf— Charlotte Gill (@CharlotteCGill) April 1, 2025 Not only that, the pyramid ludicrously asserts that such behavior is on a scale that can end up resulting in “femicide,” “homicide,” “gang rape,” “murder” and even “genocide.” That’s quite a leap. Gill also uncovered a document showing that Tender had received £3.4m in taxpayer funding from 2020-24 via government grants and government contracts. I don’t know if Adolescence is a Psyop, but let’s just say that Tender, the charity working in conjunction with it, was very ready to go, PR wise, on the day of its release (13th March).Tender received £3.4m in taxpayer funding from 2020-24. https://t.co/VC8ADVUJrz pic.twitter.com/MEtxAAOVEV— Charlotte Gill (@CharlotteCGill) April 1, 2025 The charity has also featured pro-transgender actor and activist David Tennant as a speaker at one of its events. During the event, Tennant asserted, “Our boys and young men need diverse role models who demonstrate the many ways to be a man.” 'Our boys and young men need diverse role models who demonstrate the many ways to be a man, and how treating others with respect is the greatest show of strength.David Tennant, Tender Awards 2024#actingforhealthyrelationships #davidtennant #RSHE #boysandyoungmen pic.twitter.com/6Wb3Y9sy75— Tender (@TenderUK) October 1, 2024 As we document in the video above, Adolescence is a tool of social engineering that pins the blame for “toxic masculinity,” online radicalization and violence towards young women on white British boys, a complete inversion of the truth. *  *  * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 05:00

— Putin Launches Largest Military Call-Up Since 2011 As Europe Rattles Sabers

 

at 4/4/25 2:15am

Putin Launches Largest Military Call-Up Since 2011 As Europe Rattles Sabers If Europe's goal was to ruin Donald Trump's chances of brokering a practical diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict, they may have succeeded.  France and Britain are both openly suggesting that they will deploy troops to the region to "help secure a peace deal" in the near term - There are very few other takers, largely because the move will undoubtedly trigger WWIII.  In fact, this is likely the intention. With Russia making the largest territorial gains year-over-year since 2022 and Ukraine's troop strength dwindling, the end of the war looms.  Either Kyiv will be forced to surrender or Trump will score a rudimentary peace agreement and a ceasefire.  The best case scenario for Ukraine at present is a separation of the Donbas into Russia (one of the original reasons for the war), and a demilitarized zone with a solidified border.  Ukraine has no chance of reclaiming these territories through strength of arms.   Case in point:  Vladimir Putin has initiated the largest troop call-up since 2011, mobilizing over 160,000 men with no signs of slowing Russia's recruitment efforts.  The spring call-up for military service came several months after Putin said Russia should increase the overall size of its military to almost 2.39 million and its number of active servicemen to 1.5 million. That is a rise of another 180,000 over the next three years at the current rate. The Kremlin states that the new troops are not expected to enter Ukraine, and will more likely be used to secure the western border.  This move comes as Poland and other NATO countries within ground invasion proximity to Russia engage in a build up on pretenses of defense.  Whether or not this is true is difficult to determine because of French and British plans for troop deployments to Ukraine.  Even if calls for boots on the ground turn out to be pure bluster, the buildup in Poland and the troop increases in Russia might be enough to trigger an escalation.  Furthermore, new troops are traditionally called up right before a major offensive so that fresh soldiers can be deployed to fill expected losses after six months to a year.     The fact is, the powers-that-be intend for tensions with Russia to continue no matter what happens in Ukraine.  And, Russia my be getting ready to preempt the arrival of European forces.  Russia calls up conscripts in the spring and autumn but the latest draft of 160,000 young men is 10,000 higher than the same period in 2024. Since the start of last year, the pool of young men available for the draft has been increased by raising the maximum age from 27 to 30 (to put this in perspective, the average age of conscripts in Ukraine is now 43).  Though the long running narrative in the establishment media has been that Russian forces are "tapped out" and shattered after unprecedented losses on the front lines, ongoing gains in Eastern Ukraine along with growing troop strength show that this was nothing more than propaganda.  Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 04:15

— Polish President Blasts Hate-Speech Law, Bemoans Push For 'Communist'-Style EU

 

at 4/4/25 1:30am

Polish President Blasts Hate-Speech Law, Bemoans Push For 'Communist'-Style EU Via Remix news, As Polish presidential elections near and the term of current President Andrzej Duda comes to an end, the head of state gave an interview to Telewizja Trwam and Radio Maryja. During the segment, Duda covered many topics, including the Sejm’s new so-called hate speech law, which he said he would not sign, saying it is built on lies about “well-established” concepts.  The president also called out the left for being hypocritical.  According to wPolityce, Duda said it is very characteristic that these left-liberal trends, which shout so loudly about tolerance and diversity, are the first to block free speech,” defining language “as they wish” while also “punishing any deviation” from what they say is correct.   “This is an ongoing attempt to build a world, a language, on lies, on giving new meaning to concepts that are established,” Duda told the show.  Claiming Poland is still a fully democratic country upholding the will of the majority, despite many being afraid of certain developments around them, Duda still cautioned against an erosion of democratic norms. He specifically cited St. John Paul II, who warned that democracy without values ​​easily turns into open or camouflaged totalitarianism. “We have clear and obvious examples of the deception that the current situation in Poland brings us, especially the media situation – manipulation, lies, silence, giving new meaning to words, denying events that took place (…). We must firmly defend ourselves against this and I hope that society will be able to defend itself against this at the ballot box, while expressing its real expectations,” he said.  On his party’s (PiS) proposed judicial reform, Duda blamed its failure on those who have “enormous influence” at home and abroad. “These people are very often people who smoothly transitioned from the communist system and from being members of the communist party, very quickly whitewashed themselves, painted themselves in other colors and started pretending to be great democrats. Before, they served the communists, and then they started pretending to be great libertarians,” he said.  On the federalization of the European Union, Duda told listeners that “nation states must be preserved, the EU should be a union of nation states. All cultural and identity traditions in nation states should be respected and recognized within the framework of diversity that they talk about, and which in this case they are trying to absolutely deny, forcing us into one uniform as in the most negatively associated communist regimes.” Duda made a “farewell visit” to Italy last week, during which Italian PM Georgia Meloni gave him a copy of the Italian Anthem to signify “the profound historical bond that has united the histories of our nations.” “I wanted to reiterate the importance of bilateral relations and the continuous strengthening of economic and cultural ties between Italy and Poland,” Meloni posted on X. Oggi, a Palazzo Chigi, ho avuto l’onore di accogliere il Presidente della Repubblica di Polonia, @AndrzejDuda, nell’ambito della sua visita di commiato in Italia, in vista del termine del suo mandato. Durante il nostro incontro, ho voluto ribadire l’importanza dei rapporti… pic.twitter.com/92TDGmpzLL— Giorgia Meloni (@GiorgiaMeloni) March 28, 2025 Read more here... Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 03:30

— EU State Withdraws From International Criminal Court

 

at 4/4/25 12:45am

EU State Withdraws From International Criminal Court An EU country and founding member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has withdrawn from the court in an unprecedented move on Thursday. Hungary is withdrawing from the ICC, the Viktor Orban government has announced, hours after Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in the country for a state visit. Orban while standing alongside Netanyahu for a press conference called The Hague-based court a "political tool". Hungary has refused to enforce the ICC arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister. Orban and Netanyahu meeting Thursday, via Reuters "This very important court has been diminished to a political tool and Hungary wishes to play no role in it," Orban told reporters. The ICC had already condemned Orban's willingness to invite the Israeli leader for a state visit, despite the arrest warrant issued by The Hague last year. It marks only Netanyahu's second foreign trip since the warrant was issued, with the first being to Washington. The court has charged Netanyahu with war crimes in Gaza. Israel has slammed the court's ruling as 'anti-Semitic' and politically motivated, and has rejected it. Netanyahu on Thursday praised Hungary for its "proud" support for Israel. "This is important not just for us, but for all democracies… it’s important to stand up to this corrupt organization." The Israeli PM said he expects more countries to eventually follow Budapest's lead. Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC's arrest warrant as "shameful" and "absurd". It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of "interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes" - in reference to Israel's Gaza operations. ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a Wednesday statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC "to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions."  "Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court," he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court. Orban: welcome to the safest place in Europe... ???? Prime Minister @netanyahu in Budapest, the safest place in Europe. Welcome to Hungary, Prime Minister! pic.twitter.com/GI1cjGj6X1 — Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) April 3, 2025 Days ago Israel's military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza. Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since the ceasefire collapsed last month. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000 since Oct.7, 2023. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 02:45

— Media Eviscerated For Claiming Jailing Marine Le Pen Is 'Good For Democracy'

 

at 4/4/25 12:00am

Media Eviscerated For Claiming Jailing Marine Le Pen Is 'Good For Democracy' Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, TIME Magazine is facing backlash for declaring that the conviction of French populist politician Marine Le Pen on a trumped up bureaucratic charge “was a good day for French democracy.”  Yes, really. Apparently banning a front running candidate from running for office for five years and handing her a prison sentence is “good for democracy.” It was a good day for French democracy but the far-right may still win the 2027 presidential election, writes Cole Stanglerhttps://t.co/vlexFV9Ltg — TIME (@TIME) April 1, 2025 As we highlighted yesterday, this is happening all over Europe in what many are describing as a coordinated globalist effort to prevent more nationalist candidates from being elected. Le Pen will serve two of the four year prison sentence qunder house arrest with an ankle bracelet monitor. Why 2 years of house arrest? Is there a risk she might steal a car? The only plausible explanation is that it is to prevent her campaigning for whoever is the RN's candidate in the next elections. — Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry (@pegobry_en) March 31, 2025 Democracy does not include imprisoning the likely winner, you drooling fucking morons. — JWF (@JammieWF) April 1, 2025 Define democracy, @TIME — Rug art (@eratosthenes121) April 1, 2025 Democracy now means putting your political opponents in jail worldwide. — JaknTea (@JaknTea) April 1, 2025 Removing candidates from running is totally a good day for democracy. — Harry Flashman (@KamalaGrapple) April 1, 2025 How is it good for democracy to imprison popular opposition? — pushfade (@pushfader) April 1, 2025 Putting your political opponents in jail before an election is *not* repeat *not* a "good day for democracy". Its quite the opposite, actually. — Its A Dry Heat (@Its_a_dryheat) April 1, 2025 Le Pen may still yet find a way to run given that the Paris Court of Appeal said it will look to decide whether to uphold or scrap the ban on her from elections by next year. “The Paris Court of Appeal confirms having received today three appeals filed against the decision rendered on March 31, 2025, by the Paris judicial court in the case of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front. It will examine this file within a time frame which should allow a decision to be rendered in the summer of 2026,” the court said, according to Le Figaro. In response, Le Pen said it was “very good news,” but that she intends to challenge the ruling in any way possible, including France’s Constitutional Council and the European Court of Human Rights. “I will use all possible avenues of appeal. I won’t let it happen,” she told Le Parisien. She has further contended that the court’s decision to impose a ban on her pursuing office while her appeal is ongoing undermines the rule of law, asserting that individuals in the appeal process are generally granted the presumption of innocence, and thus, implementing the ban at this stage disregards established legal norms. Current polling suggests that Le Pen is almost certain to win if she runs in 2027. *  *  * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/04/2025 - 02:00

— Iran Lacks The Leverage For A Fair Deal With The US

 

at 4/3/25 9:25pm

Iran Lacks The Leverage For A Fair Deal With The US Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, It’ll therefore either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose. Iranian-US tensions are boiling after Trump threatened to bomb Iran following its rejection of direct talks over a new nuclear deal. He also ordered the Pentagon to move six B-2 stealth bombers, which CNN assessed to be a full 30% of the US’ stealth bomber fleet, to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. The Iranian Supreme Leader responded by promising strong retaliation if the US attacks while one of his chief advisors warned that their country would then have “no choice” but to build nukes if that happens. Although the US Intelligence Community’s latest Annual Threat Assessment claimed that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”, there have been long-standing concerns that it could quickly do so if the decision is made due to its nuclear program allegedly have a rapid breakout potential. This makes it no different in principle than Japan’s, which could begin churning out nukes in a matter of months, but neither the US nor its regional allies consider Japan to be a threat, unlike how they view Iran. The US’ renewed bombing campaign against Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen might have been partially intended to send a message to the Islamic Republic aimed at getting it to enter direct talks over this issue by signaling that Trump 2.0 does indeed have the political will to initiate military action if it refuses. Despite Iran’s recent rejection of his demand, Trump might still hold off on this for now due to the likelihood that Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies. Furthermore, diplomacy hasn’t yet been exhausted since Iran didn’t reject indirect talks of the kind that Russia offered to mediate after reportedly being asked by the US to do so, which was discussed here. Therefore, it would be premature for the US to seriously consider bombing Iran at this time, yet that option isn’t off the table if indirect talks fail to reach a deal. Iran lacks the leverage for a fair deal with the US, however, so it’ll either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose. Iran is a proud civilization-state that’s loath to subordinate itself to anyone, hence the difficulty in getting it to agree to drastic curbs on its nuclear energy program that would enshrine its status as a second-class country in this regard, all while abandoning any chance of nuclear weapons in the future. From Iran’s perspective, this could embolden Israel into one day launching a large-scale conventional or even nuclear war against it, which Iran believes has only hitherto been deterred by dangling this Damocles’ sword. That said, while Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies (first of all Israel) if it’s attacked over its refusal to agree to a Russian-mediated lopsided deal, it cannot inflict such damage to the US’ nuclear triad and would thus likely be destroyed. Iran couldn’t count on Russia intervening to help it either since their newly updated strategic partnership doesn’t include mutual defense obligations and Moscow doesn’t want war with Washington or West Jerusalem. Even though the US could survive a major war with Iran, it still prefers to avoid one. So long as the US’ demands remain limited to drastically curbing Iran’s nuclear energy program and don’t expand to include curbs on its support for regional allies or its ballistic missile program, then creative diplomacy could prevail. For that to happen, Russia would have to devise a set of incentives for Iran that the US approves of and Iran then agrees to, but that’s still a far way off and Trump might strike first if he loses patience. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 23:25

— Trump's Pardon Only Covers Defendants' Jan. 6-Related Crimes: Appeals Court

 

at 4/3/25 8:35pm

Trump's Pardon Only Covers Defendants' Jan. 6-Related Crimes: Appeals Court Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times, President Donald Trump’s pardon for people convicted of charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol does not extend to crimes “only connected to January 6 by the happenstance that it was uncovered during investigation of the unrelated January 6 offenses,” a federal appeals court ruled on April 2. A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld a lower court ruling that rejected arguments from Dan Wilson, a Jan. 6 defendant who said that Trump’s relief should cover firearm convictions that stemmed from a search conducted as part of the probe into his actions on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump on Jan. 20, when he took office for his second term, pardoned people for crimes “relating to the events at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021.” “That language plainly applies to related offenses,” Circuit Judges Cornelia T.L. Pillard and Gregory G. Katsas said on Wednesday, in denying Wilson’s motion for release pending appeal. Circuit Judge Neomi Rao, the third judge on the panel, dissented. “Wilson’s appeal presents exceptional circumstances. He raises a novel question implicating the scope of the pardon power, which is vested exclusively in the President,” Rao said. She noted that Trump issued the pardon but tasked the attorney general with administering and effectuating it by issuing certificates to relevant people. The U.S. Department of Justice has said in court filings that the pardon does cover Wilson’s firearm convictions. “Wilson’s certificate merely repeats the language of the blanket pardon and does not specifically list his firearm convictions,” Rao said. “But nothing seems to preclude a new certificate from being issued that clarifies the scope of Wilson’s pardon. Because it is unlikely that the issuance of a certificate of pardon is judicially reviewable, there is at least a ’substantial question' whether we should defer to the Department of Justice when it claims the certificate it has issued applies to Wilson’s firearms convictions.” The majority said in response that they were reviewing the scope of the pardon, not its validity. “The pardon does not cover offenses wholly independent of events at the Capitol on January 6, even if uncovered during investigation of January 6 offenses,” they said. “What matters is the relationship between the offenses. Wilson’s Kentucky firearm offenses are not ‘offenses related to events that occurred’ at the Capitol on January 6. They occurred at a different time and place, and the elements of these offenses—possession of an unlicensed firearm and the possession of firearms by a prohibited person—bear no relationship to conduct that occurred at the Capitol on January 6. Thus, by the plain terms of the Pardon, they are not covered.” George Pallas, an attorney representing Wilson, told The Epoch Times in an email that “Illegal gang members from El Salvador have better luck than J6ers do in the DC courts.” He was referring to recent rulings blocking the Trump administration from deporting Tren de Aragua members and suspected members under Trump’s Alien Enemies Act declaration. Wilson had been released shortly after Trump signed the proclamation, but Department of Justice officials later said he should have been kept in custody because the firearms crimes were not covered by Trump’s pardon. Several weeks later, officials told the federal court in Washington that they were now of the view that the pardon did cover the crimes. U.S. District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich ruled in March that the convictions, which came in Kentucky after a search of Wilson’s home, were not covered by the pardon. Friedrich said that Trump can still pardon Wilson for unrelated convictions but that he has not yet. Pallas told The Epoch Times in an email after that ruling that Friedrich missed the point because “President Trump is in the courtroom speaking through his surrogate, the prosecutor.” A different judge, at around the same time, declined to vacate the convictions of Edward Kelley, another Jan. 6 defendant who offered similar arguments against conspiracy and threat charges. Kelley has not appealed that ruling. Also on Wednesday, a federal judge in Florida agreed to dismiss the convictions of another Jan. 6 defendant, Jeremy Brown, who was convicted of grenade and firearm possession in 2023. The judge overseeing the case cited how the Department of Justice moved to throw out the charges, referencing the pardon. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 22:35

— Israel Seizes Rafah In Expanded Operation, Hundreds Of Thousands Flee

 

at 4/3/25 8:10pm

Israel Seizes Rafah In Expanded Operation, Hundreds Of Thousands Flee The Israeli military (IDF) has expanded its Gaza operations over the last 24 hours, and has announced a new focus on establishing a "security zone" in an around the southern city of Rafah. The push into Rafah is intended to dismantle all remaining Hamas infrastructure and command activity, given the city is seen as the group's last main stronghold in the Gaza Strip. This has unleashed a new wave of mass displacement, with reports of hundreds of thousands fleeing the city amid the assault. The enclave for more than the last year been even more crowded, given it has served as a last place of refuge for the displaced from northern and central Gaza. IDF spox Effie Defrin, via Israeli military IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir visited Gaza this week, delivering the following message of intensified operations to get back all of the remaining hostages: During the visit, Zamir addressed troops near Rafah, stating that the Israel Defense Forces are intensifying their offensive at a deliberate and determined pace. He emphasized that the military effort would continue until all Israeli hostages are returned and declared the mission far from over. Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry has announced at least 97 people killed in Israeli strikes from Wednesday into Thursday, including at least 20 killed in a dawn airstrike on a suburb of Gaza City. According to a Palestinian eyewitness of the stepped up assault who spoke to Reuters: Rafah "is gone, it is being wiped out," a father of seven among the hundreds of thousands who had fled from Rafah to neighboring Khan Younis, told Reuters via a chat app. "They are knocking down what is left standing of houses and property," said the man who declined to be identified for fear of repercussions. A ground assault on eastern Gaza City is also reported to be ongoing. This week has seen the heaviest escalation of the ground and aerial assault since the ceasefire collapsed last month. Meanwhile controversy and international outraged has continued over the recent killings of a group of Palestinian emergency responders: The Israeli military killed 15 medics and emergency workers in southern Gaza and buried the bodies with their ambulances and rescue vehicles last month. Dr Ahmed al-Farra, director of pediatrics at Al-Tahreer Maternity Hospital in southern Khan Younis, saw the bodies coming into the medical facility after they were recovered a week later. He said Israeli soldiers would have easily seen they were targeting medics when they opened fire. "The skies are filled with their planes, they can see a needle on the ground. So they could easily distinguish ambulances," al-Farra told Al Jazeera. "When the bodies came to the hospital, they were nearly decomposed. It had been around seven to eight days since the medics were executed. I saw three of them had their hands tied behind their backs." Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have continued lobbing rockets on southern Israel, with a new round launched on Thursday. Warning sirens have returned to becoming a regular feature of life in Israeli towns and cities in the south and central of the country. ⚡️Nonstop Israeli strikes across Gaza pic.twitter.com/FZhk636IxG — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 3, 2025 The wartime situation is set to continue for the foreseeable future, given new IDF spokesman, Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, declared Thursday that the military has entered "a new stage" of the fight against Hamas. "The plan serves the goals of the war, returning the hostages and destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities," he said. The IDF is maintaining "operational ambiguity, so we can surprise the enemy and bring about significant achievements," he said, adding that "our actions will speak". Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 22:10

— All The Ukrainian Known Knowns

 

at 4/3/25 7:45pm

All The Ukrainian Known Knowns Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness, Aside from the rhetoric, there is a growing consensus among Western diplomats, military analysts, military officers, heads of state, and even much of the media about how to end the endless Ukrainian war. A proposed peace will see a DMZ established somewhere along an adjusted 1,200-mile Ukraine-Russia border. Tough negotiations will adjudicate how far east toward its original borders Russian forces will be leveraged to backstep. Publicly in the U.S. and covertly in Europe, all accept that a depleted Ukraine will not have the military strength to retake Crimea and the Donbas. In 2014, both were absorbed by Russia during the Obama administration. Neither that administration nor any since has advocated a military effort to reclaim them. Loudly, the U.S.—and again quietly Europe—concedes that Ukraine will not be in NATO—a confirmation that Russia will use to justify to its people its disastrous invasion, and even many Ukrainians will accept. How will the West deter Putin from his inevitable agenda of reclaiming lost Soviet territory and Russian-speaking peoples? For now, his army is exhausted, its arsenals depleted, and its reputation shattered. In the future, a commercial corridor, anchored by concessions to American and international mining concerns, will supposedly serve as a tripwire to deter Putin from attacking in-the-way noncombatant Americans. More practically, Ukrainian forces will be kept fully armed. They have already inflicted perhaps a million causalities on Putin’s forces—possibly five times the dead, wounded, and missing that the Russians lost to the Taliban over that entire decade-long misadventure in Afghanistan. If Trump can coax even a ceasefire, the oddly bellicose left will still rail about “Munich” and Trump as “Putin’s puppet.” But after perhaps 1.5 million total Ukrainian and Russian dead, wounded, sick, and missing, transatlantic leftists will quietly admit they never had any realistic plan to win by fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. And they certainly were not willing—despite what they claimed in their spasms of braggadocio—to send U.S., U.K., European, or NATO ground troops into Eastern Ukraine. Trump has faced criticism for his volatile, art-of-the-deal approach to Ukrainian diplomacy over the last 10 weeks. Lost in such criticism is that the Biden administration did not even try to end the war. Instead, in the LBJ-style of “light at the end of the tunnel,” it parroted the great “spring offensive” to come. And when that gambit disastrously failed, it resorted to the banal blank check of “as long as it takes.” Western leaders simplistically thought that sending more arms, money, and Ukrainians into the cauldron would eventually break Russia—30 times larger than Ukraine, 10 times richer, over four times more populous, and far less bothered by the mounting toll of its greater losses. In addition, we even know the likely course of negotiations to end the slaughter. As soon as Trump pressures Zelenskyy for a ceasefire and a rare minerals mining concession, Putin smells an advantage. So, he digs in and orders his generals to double down on terror strikes for advantage. And then, once Trump sees that scolding Zelensky empowers Putin to back off from a ceasefire, he turns on Putin and puts far greater pressure on him: a secondary embargo on all who buy Russian oil that even the “on to Moscow” crowd had never envisioned. Once Putin seems to agree, then Zelenskyy thinks he was had and wants a better mining deal or reconsideration of NATO or more sophisticated weapons—until Trump reminds him that the despised U.S., not his beloved Europeans, is his only route to a shaky peace. So, we know the negotiations will have a yin and yang until there is no solution other than a ceasefire leading to a Korean-peninsula-like hot peace. Putin always preferred to exploit the Obamas and Bidens of the world. And he did so in 2014 and 2022, rather than the mercurial, unpredictable, and ultimately dangerous Trump, during whose tenure he stayed put within his borders. He also knows that for all the talk of his puppet Trump, the latter killed hundreds of the Wagner group, pulled out of an asymmetrical missile deal, first sent offensive weapons to Ukraine, sanctioned Russian oil and oligarchs, warned the Germans not to deal with Putin on the Nord Stream II pipeline, and bombed into extinction ISIS of Iraq, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and Qasem Soleimani. So, Putin knows that India, China, and others who buy his oil will not if he reneges on his willingness for a ceasefire. If and when peace comes, we can already foresee the misinformation that will follow: Trump deserves no credit. Zelenskyy remains the true hero. A now hollowed-out Russia was the real winner. The only mystery? Since when did the anti-war left prefer an endless and horrific war to a difficult, messy peace? Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 21:45

As of 4/4/25 9:20am. Last new 4/4/25 8:17am.